Quote from fenn68 on March 12, 2023, 9:47 am

Yeh, he looks like he would be fine in MLB ... wonder what kind of contract he would draw?

With Snell a FA and a chance via opt outs Wacha, Martinez, and Lugo could be FA (Padres will know before pursuing new adds) ... Yamamoto could be a good target.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on March 12, 2023, 10:42 am

Quote from fenn68 on March 12, 2023, 9:47 am

Yeh, he looks like he would be fine in MLB ... wonder what kind of contract he would draw?

With Snell a FA and a chance via opt outs Wacha, Martinez, and Lugo could be FA (Padres will know before pursuing new adds) ... Yamamoto could be a good target.

At 1st glance I see SP 2024 FA as follows

Group A

Othani (DH) all by himself

Group B

Nola

Urias

Yamamoto

Group C

Snell- (resigning..only C because of IP, stuff wise he belongs with Group B, lack of IP profile drops him here)

Sonny Gray

 

This is the order I would address FA SP 2024.. if I were AJP.... Nola vs Urias could flip flop if lhp was a thing to balance the rotation

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on March 13, 2023, 6:56 am

I can't see any way we have the money to sign any of these guys...."if" they are serious about signing Soto and/or Ohtani.

Guessing AJ is hoping one or more of  Groome/Weathers/Teheran/Honeywell pan out.

He may add another Wacha type next off season if need be....Giolito,Severino,Lorenzen,Odorizzi....depending on their cost after this year.

Also,Lugo has a player option,so we could need to replace/resign him also.

 

Quote from fenn68 on March 13, 2023, 7:41 am

Agree and next winter Ohtani is the key (Soto is around for 2024).

A bit of a timing game in determining the money available and the holes created by FA. Not going to be an issue with key position players but at the end of the season Hader, Garcia, Snell are FA plus the opt out / opt ins are exercised.

Lugo has a clear player option that IF he becomes a reliable starter … he will opt out for a bigger salary / longer term. If he under performs, he opts in (not helping the Padres).

If I have it right on Martinez and Wacha the club and player options happen at the same time with club option at about $16MM then player option at about $8MM. Again, if they are decent SP in 2023 but not upper level … Padres would not pay $16MM but the players may think they can do better than $8MM+/- as a FA … and opt out.

Padres will know where they stand right after the World Series … also, should have a full 2023 evaluation of the Groome, Weathers, et al to make the risk assessment of them stepping in to a 2024 SP role.

So, the need may be great and money may be there, but now they have to work Ohtani’s timeline in FA negotiation. If that lingers, other options by go off the board … at what point do they move off Ohtani and fill a real need for 2024 with other options.

Just my opinion but do think they will go all in on Ohtani and, if Ohtani’s thinking is consistent with his past … would expect a quick resolution. He was not thinking money first coming out of Japan … and he will get big money even without a lot of negotiation … but it does appear he wants a place where he is “comfortable” on a team that will be a consistent playoff team with the chance to win the World Series.

A good chance for the Padres to have resolution by the winter meetings.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on March 13, 2023, 11:15 am

Quote from fenn68 on March 13, 2023, 7:41 am

Agree and next winter Ohtani is the key (Soto is around for 2024).

A bit of a timing game in determining the money available and the holes created by FA. Not going to be an issue with key position players but at the end of the season Hader, Garcia, Snell are FA plus the opt out / opt ins are exercised.

Lugo has a clear player option that IF he becomes a reliable starter … he will opt out for a bigger salary / longer term. If he under performs, he opts in (not helping the Padres).

If I have it right on Martinez and Wacha the club and player options happen at the same time with club option at about $16MM then player option at about $8MM. Again, if they are decent SP in 2023 but not upper level … Padres would not pay $16MM but the players may think they can do better than $8MM+/- as a FA … and opt out.

Padres will know where they stand right after the World Series … also, should have a full 2023 evaluation of the Groome, Weathers, et al to make the risk assessment of them stepping in to a 2024 SP role.

So, the need may be great and money may be there, but now they have to work Ohtani’s timeline in FA negotiation. If that lingers, other options by go off the board … at what point do they move off Ohtani and fill a real need for 2024 with other options.

Just my opinion but do think they will go all in on Ohtani and, if Ohtani’s thinking is consistent with his past … would expect a quick resolution. He was not thinking money first coming out of Japan … and he will get big money even without a lot of negotiation … but it does appear he wants a place where he is “comfortable” on a team that will be a consistent playoff team with the chance to win the World Series.

A good chance for the Padres to have resolution by the winter meetings.

Well since Othani already almost came here from JPN even without the DH, and the FO is the same + a better Manager and what looks like a HUGE commitment to winning by Peter.. I say budget an amount and offer it day one.. 10yrs $500 mil pr whatever that number is.. In all likelihood we will need a DH and a LHSP.. so no different than 2 5yr/150 and 5yr/100 (DH) type deals.. assume Josh Bell has a monster year.. would you rather have Bell (or even Korean kid) + Yamamoto 5/250 $50mil per combined OR Othani SP/DH for 10/500 $50mil per.. ?

Quote from MrPadre19 on March 13, 2023, 1:57 pm

Ohtani would make the team 10's of millions just by name/reputation alone.

Also,Ohtani frees up a 26 man roster spot for a league minimum bench/BP player.

Oh...and he's pretty good at hitting and pitching.

What do we do with Carpenter and his $6mil commitment for 2024 if we sign Ohtani?

He would be an expensive pinch hitter.

Best case scenario he has a fantastic 2023 and opts out for 2024...."IF" we get Ohtani.

 

 

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on March 13, 2023, 2:23 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on March 13, 2023, 1:57 pm

Ohtani would make the team 10's of millions just by name/reputation alone.

Also,Ohtani frees up a 26 man roster spot for a league minimum bench/BP player.

Oh...and he's pretty good at hitting and pitching.

What do we do with Carpenter and his $6mil commitment for 2024 if we sign Ohtani?

He would be an expensive pinch hitter.

Best case scenario he has a fantastic 2023 and opts out for 2024...."IF" we get Ohtani.

 

 

 

 

I could live with that dilemma… Ohtani is the DH to replace Cruz.

Probably could trade Carpenter but maybe expensive for the bench. The 5th INF role works slotting him at 1B and let Cronenworth / Kim shuffle around giving rest to the four regulars. Probably could be an emergency corner OF option … Padres were suggesting that earlier.

 

Quote from fenn68 on March 13, 2023, 2:28 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on March 13, 2023, 11:15 am

Quote from fenn68 on March 13, 2023, 7:41 am

Agree and next winter Ohtani is the key (Soto is around for 2024).

A bit of a timing game in determining the money available and the holes created by FA. Not going to be an issue with key position players but at the end of the season Hader, Garcia, Snell are FA plus the opt out / opt ins are exercised.

Lugo has a clear player option that IF he becomes a reliable starter … he will opt out for a bigger salary / longer term. If he under performs, he opts in (not helping the Padres).

If I have it right on Martinez and Wacha the club and player options happen at the same time with club option at about $16MM then player option at about $8MM. Again, if they are decent SP in 2023 but not upper level … Padres would not pay $16MM but the players may think they can do better than $8MM+/- as a FA … and opt out.

Padres will know where they stand right after the World Series … also, should have a full 2023 evaluation of the Groome, Weathers, et al to make the risk assessment of them stepping in to a 2024 SP role.

So, the need may be great and money may be there, but now they have to work Ohtani’s timeline in FA negotiation. If that lingers, other options by go off the board … at what point do they move off Ohtani and fill a real need for 2024 with other options.

Just my opinion but do think they will go all in on Ohtani and, if Ohtani’s thinking is consistent with his past … would expect a quick resolution. He was not thinking money first coming out of Japan … and he will get big money even without a lot of negotiation … but it does appear he wants a place where he is “comfortable” on a team that will be a consistent playoff team with the chance to win the World Series.

A good chance for the Padres to have resolution by the winter meetings.

Well since Othani already almost came here from JPN even without the DH, and the FO is the same + a better Manager and what looks like a HUGE commitment to winning by Peter.. I say budget an amount and offer it day one.. 10yrs $500 mil pr whatever that number is.. In all likelihood we will need a DH and a LHSP.. so no different than 2 5yr/150 and 5yr/100 (DH) type deals.. assume Josh Bell has a monster year.. would you rather have Bell (or even Korean kid) + Yamamoto 5/250 $50mil per combined OR Othani SP/DH for 10/500 $50mil per.. ?

Note Ohtani is a RHP / LHH. The question is whether Ohtani is the same as when he came to the states … time changes priorities.

Agree they should go in hot to elicit a quick resolution.

Quote from BoosterSD on March 13, 2023, 6:51 pm

13 @ $39M for $507M for Ohtani, is my guess.

15 @ $37M for $555M for Soto, is my guess.

So, $76M per for both, plus Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts, Musgrove, Darvish, Suarez that would put SD base at just over $204M AAV each year. So dont think we will get/keep both.

Who would you choose? I think I would choose Soto, younger and better injury history.