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WBC 2023

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Quote from Randy Manese on March 22, 2023, 10:31 am

Ohtani showing why it's going to take an arm and a leg to sign him.  All puns intended.  Padres go all in but very difficult to hold off the Dodgers siren song.  Easily 500M but over 14 years, ONLY 35.7M per year AAV if at 500M!

Ohtani will be 29 for his first year of the new contract ... so the years may be an issue. 12 year deal gets him to age 41 but may could push that a bit before the league steps in recognizing that the deal is geared for AAV reasons and they will not like that. Total contract dollars is the real issue ... and now expect that over $500MM is probable.

$40MM AAV over 13 years gets ONLY $520MM ... might not be enough.

I would push for Ohtani ... but the ripple effect is letting Soto go. Fortunately they will know on Ohtani before they have to make the call on extending Soto ... so that sets up well.

Don't see signing Ohtani for 12-13 years at a $40++ AAV (can see LAD going way) and having the resources to sign Soto (only 26 in his first FA year) to a 15 year / $35MM AAV ... $525MM.

Let us not forget the burden for Tatis, Machado, Bogaerts, Darvish, Musgrove.

 

I'd rather have Soto.

Either would be great,of course, but the advantage to Ohtani is that he hits and pitches....even though he doesn't play the field I would still worry more about him getting hurt and missing significant time than Soto.I'm not sure that is an accurate worry but nonetheless.....

Then there's the factor of how Soto does this year.If he has a MVP type season....can we out bid the dodgers/Yankees/Sox/Mets etc.?

Would we still want him at $525 mil if he has another "average" year for him?

Does he hit .250 or .320 in 2023?

Does he hit 24 HR's or 40?

Well......we're about to find out.Should be fun either way!

 

 

With Ohtani, yes he fills two roster spots, a SP and DH. However, if/when he gets hurt, it also creates two holes as well. And depending on the length of injury, could require two 26 man roster moves, and maybe a 40 man roster move as well. One for a SP, and maybe one for the DH spot.

Ohtani, since he is both a great SP and DH, will probably push $50M per season AAV. Plus, Soto has age on his side being 4 years younger than Ohtani. So while Soto may want/require the same total contract amount as Ohtani, it should be allowed by MLB approval to be a longer contract. Thus lowering the AAV, which would help compensate for the large contracts to Machado, Musgrove, Darvish, Tatis, and Bogaerts.

 

Possible the Padres pass on both (at those high prices). IF Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts, Darvish, Musgrove live up to their contracts (and Soto in 2024) the core is already very strong. If you believe in a strong 26 man roster ... maybe they opt to take a run at a couple of $20MM / shorter contact signings instead. I could see emphasis on multiple pitchers for 2024 and maybe a catcher.

Part of that would also be driven by how the prospects develop in 2023 and their projected arrival date and impact.

2024 targets who played in the WBC are off to different starts.  Jung Hoo Lee is only hitting .208 but just 29 plate appearances. I think he was exposed a bit as not having as much of an impact bat as everyone thought because exit velocity is not top of the line.  Still a great hitter with a superior eye, who could be a factor at the top of a major league line-up.  On the other hand Yoshinobu Yamamoto is doing just fine.  Started the season in the lower league and three 7 shut out innings.  On his second start, was at the JPPL and threw 6 shut out innings.  He won both games and struck out one better per inning, yielding just 2 hits in each game.  He gave up no walks in the JPWL but 2 in the JPPL start.  If I have to choose between the two, I'd go after Yamamoto as having more impact on our current team than Lee, however, we'll see how the season goes for both these players who may have been affected by their play in the WBC.

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