Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 12, 2022, 8:54 am

Quote from dusty on July 12, 2022, 8:51 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 12, 2022, 8:43 am

Wonder if KC would take Hosmer + $22 mil of his roughly $49 mil owed paid by SDP + Rosario # 5 spec + #19 Efrain Contreras ... for Barlow (RP).. opening 1B for a better option Garrett Cooper(Miami)/Josh Bell(Nats)....

Hos can be the right leader to help KC back..as it starts bringing up its specs...Hos at $8mil per (with pads covering the rest seems about right)

Barlow gives us some Closer insurance BP high leverage experienced arm to ease the burden

Is Hosmer a guarantee to stay with the team and play on a $13 mil/year deal? That contract might not be a guarantee...maybe conditional agreement in the form of player to be named later

Yeah conditional... my rationale is Because IF he stays that 3/39 becomes our burden for good...because he would be 10/5 after the season player and can VOID any and all trades... so if he doesn't get traded at the deadline and Opts IN (on the 3/39) .Hos is at 1B for 23 24 and 25...

Quote from fenn68 on July 12, 2022, 8:56 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 12, 2022, 8:15 am

Based on some of the Castillo rumors (and AJP love for the kid) how about this 3 way Trade (I am assuming Snell has 2 more starts like his last 2 and thus his value is high again)...

To San Diego

Luis Castillo (Reds) + Tyler Naquin (Reds/CF.crushes RHP) + Luiz Meza (TOR # 20 C Spec)

To Toronto

Snell (SDP)

To Cincinnati

Grishman (SDP) + Campusano (SDP) + Mears (SDP) + (Reds choice of ) Wethers/or Fiedemann # 3 (#61 )(TOR)

3 (4 if they prefer Wethers) 40 cleared ... 2 added .. Net 2 open

Add Ruiz to the 40 and bring him up.. like CJ can incorporate him in the lineup (LF/CF) slowly and play (platoon) the avgs with Naquin/Mazara vs RHP.. Ruiz/Myers vs LHP.. Profar gets a more suitable role in LF (not everyday burn ..but maybe 50/60% of his current everyday taxing workload)..DH can be a place of rest vs LHP (whom Voit is terrible against)

Why Castillo for Snell replacement...simple $$ math..Castillo makes 1/2 of Snell.. and that $$$ Savings can Bring in a Big Rental Bat ..Bell/Mancini/Garrett Cooper/Contreras ..all of whom upgrade VOIT/Hosmer/or Nola BIG time...

 

I could see Preller being "interested" in Castillo but would he use his trade chips for him vs. a bat for the offense? Is the incremental gain from Castillo over Snell really that much?

Side: Padres are concerned about CBT payroll ... and to that extent Snell is at $10MM and Castillo is at $7.3MM ... so not that big of a CBT reduction. Plus Snell's is fixed at $10MM for 2023 while Castillo will go up in his last arb year.

Toronto may go for Snell and give Tiedemann plus Meza.

CINN may just take Tiedemann and Meza but since Castillo is better than Snell (and C may not be their immediate priority) would ask for Ruiz plus.

The difference between TOR and CINN is that Toronto may pay up as they are on the bubble of the playoffs but CINN has no compulsion to deal Castillo unless it is for the best deal .. and could wait to the winter.

Of course, why does not TOR just go get Castillo directly ... and have a better SP? They have both money and prospects to deal.

Quote from fenn68 on July 12, 2022, 9:46 am

The complexity of shaping a Hosmer deal and then a separate deal to replace him seems to be a mountain too hard to climb. Hosmer is not THE problem at this point.

IF you could find a taker for Hosmer (and I think you could) ... Padres would have to pay down a major portion of his contract ... probably down to a max of $8MM. So, if he opts in after the season the Padres would probably have to be kicking in $5MM/year that counts against the Padres CBT payroll. In 2022 probably would need to kick in about $4MM of his remaining $7MMish. So not a big CBT savings. For the "right team" may not need to add much in prospects (will not get anything in return). A contender needing a 1B might play ... BOST? However, a non-contender ... KC? would have to be incentivized beyond Hosmer at "fair market value" today for his declining productivity ages 33-35.

Still Padres benefit from not being locked into Hosmer for three more year and save maybe $13MM in CBT in future years (his CBT is I think around $18MM less the buy down). Then have to sign (trade for) a better replacement ... easy to say not so easy to do ... when also looking to sign SP and OF in 2023.

No even addressing the disruption it may cause in the clubhouse (Machado) ... seems like a poor time (and a short timeframe) to exit Hosmer and replace him while other more pressing needs are present. Remember Preller has been trying to move Hosmer for over a year without takers (and was willing to buy down the contract) and could not get a deal ... not sure why now would be different unless it was a very needy contender.

Quote from BoosterSD on July 12, 2022, 10:05 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 12, 2022, 8:56 am

Side: Padres are concerned about CBT payroll ... and to that extent Snell is at $10MM and Castillo is at $7.3MM ... so not that big of a CBT reduction. Plus Snell's is fixed at $10MM for 2023 while Castillo will go up in his last arb year.

Yes, according to Spotrac, Blakes "cap" number stays at $10M, but his actual salary does increase to $16.6M for 2023.

Quote from fenn68 on July 12, 2022, 10:20 am

Quote from BoosterSD on July 12, 2022, 10:05 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 12, 2022, 8:56 am

Side: Padres are concerned about CBT payroll ... and to that extent Snell is at $10MM and Castillo is at $7.3MM ... so not that big of a CBT reduction. Plus Snell's is fixed at $10MM for 2023 while Castillo will go up in his last arb year.

Yes, according to Spotrac, Blakes "cap" number stays at $10M, but his actual salary does increase to $16.6M for 2023.

At this point it seems to be the CBT calculation that is the issue ... lesser so current cash.

So, in a sense, the Padres are benefiting CBT-wise with the low number for Snell while his salary rises BUT are suffering with the high number for Hosmer as his salary drops.

Rough numbers but 2023 CBT has Hosmer at $18MM and Snell at $10MM ... $28MM ... salary Hosmer at $13MM and Snell at $16MM ... $29MM. Play with rounding and basically a net push for both CBT and payroll.

Quote from fenn68 on July 13, 2022, 3:41 pm

Wonder it that fact that the Royal had to put 10 of their players on the restricted list because they refused to get vaccinated for COVID and Canada will not let them in the country will impact the market for some who have been mentioned as trade candidates … eg. Benintendi, Merrifield, Taylor.

First it takes TOR out as a bidder but what about any team that has important games against TOR in Canada or may have to face TOR in the playoffs? TOR is still in a playoff slot.

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 13, 2022, 3:48 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 13, 2022, 3:41 pm

Wonder it that fact that the Royal had to put 10 of their players on the restricted list because they refused to get vaccinated for COVID and Canada will not let them in the country will impact the market for some who have been mentioned as trade candidates … eg. Benintendi, Merrifield, Taylor.

First it takes TOR out as a bidder but what about any team that has important games against TOR in Canada or may have to face TOR in the playoffs? TOR is still in a playoff slot.

 

What happens if Toronto males the WS ? Does MLB say you got to play road/away games in the USA?

 

Imagine playing a team with 10 unvaxed .. in the WS..including your All Stars

Quote from fenn68 on July 13, 2022, 4:33 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 13, 2022, 3:48 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 13, 2022, 3:41 pm

Wonder it that fact that the Royal had to put 10 of their players on the restricted list because they refused to get vaccinated for COVID and Canada will not let them in the country will impact the market for some who have been mentioned as trade candidates … eg. Benintendi, Merrifield, Taylor.

First it takes TOR out as a bidder but what about any team that has important games against TOR in Canada or may have to face TOR in the playoffs? TOR is still in a playoff slot.

 

What happens if Toronto males the WS ? Does MLB say you got to play road/away games in the USA?

 

Imagine playing a team with 10 unvaxed .. in the WS..including your All Stars

That would be a hot button issue.

I think the team with the unvaccinated players will be the loser in that debate. Can’t see penalizing TOR who has done nothing wrong as an organization in favor of a team with players … who know the rules … making a personal choice that will have this effect.

MLB (Manfred) would be the center of controversy (accused of bias) if it were the NYM and TOR faced off and he sided with the Uber rich Cohen’s METS. To make it worse, where would they play … almost has to be a ML park (preferably AL) were TOR has played a lot … BOSTON? Yankee Stadium?

No idea if the 10 in KC is an outlier in terms of numbers … pretty sure most teams have a lot fewer based on some of the reporting last year.

Any idea of which Padres fall in this category?

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 13, 2022, 4:38 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 13, 2022, 4:33 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 13, 2022, 3:48 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 13, 2022, 3:41 pm

Wonder it that fact that the Royal had to put 10 of their players on the restricted list because they refused to get vaccinated for COVID and Canada will not let them in the country will impact the market for some who have been mentioned as trade candidates … eg. Benintendi, Merrifield, Taylor.

First it takes TOR out as a bidder but what about any team that has important games against TOR in Canada or may have to face TOR in the playoffs? TOR is still in a playoff slot.

 

What happens if Toronto males the WS ? Does MLB say you got to play road/away games in the USA?

 

Imagine playing a team with 10 unvaxed .. in the WS..including your All Stars

That would be a hot button issue.

I think the team with the unvaccinated players will be the loser in that debate. Can’t see penalizing TOR who has done nothing wrong as an organization in favor of a team with players … who know the rules … making a personal choice that will have this effect.

MLB (Manfred) would be the center of controversy (accused of bias) if it were the NYM and TOR faced off and he sided with the Uber rich Cohen’s METS. To make it worse, where would they play … almost has to be a ML park (preferably AL) were TOR has played a lot … BOSTON? Yankee Stadium?

No idea if the 10 in KC is an outlier in terms of numbers … pretty sure most teams have a lot fewer based on some of the reporting last year.

Any idea of which Padres fall in this category?

No clue BUT does Benintendi value come down a bit 1/6 chance Jays are in the WS???

Also Jays Manager got fired!.. they were favorites to Win the East and now find themselves in a real battle with the Orioles for the final WS spot...and are closer to KC for dead last than to NYY for 1st