Quote from fenn68 on June 16, 2022, 6:39 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on June 13, 2022, 8:27 am

Would love for Wilson Contreras (Cubs) and Nola to exchange dugouts or at least leave with a different team after the Cubs series... Nola + Mears + Ornelas for Contreras .. get it done AJP... Contreras could DH on his off days Alfaro can keep him off his feet 2 or 3 times a week...and Contreras BAT is a Huge upgrade at C/DH or 1B when in the lineup (like Manny/ most days)

A couple of concerns about acquiring Contreras mid-season and selling low on Nola.

1. Pitching is the key to the Padres winning and Nola / Alfaro seem to be excelling in handing the pitching staff. Not sure throwing in a new catcher might not hurt the staff effectiveness as Contreras and the staff learn each other.
2. Contreras has a significant contract and is a FA after the season (and will command a bigger deal in 2023) ... Alfaro is a FA after 2023 ... Campusano has a lot to prove especially defensively (and Melvin want defensive 1st catchers). Nola is low cost / long control / plus defense and is performing at career lows ... bad time to to move him.

I need to wait a lot more to ensure we are targeting the right add to fill critical holes with limited trade assets and payroll space. I also ... looking at the FA after this season am reluctant to add another FA to be for controlled ML players.

I still am keeping an eye on the OF first but as we have seen pitching injuries can change the landscape quickly ... maybe the SP can be covered but if Rogers goes down Preller may be looking for a closer first then OF.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on June 16, 2022, 6:55 am

Quote from fenn68 on June 16, 2022, 6:39 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on June 13, 2022, 8:27 am

Would love for Wilson Contreras (Cubs) and Nola to exchange dugouts or at least leave with a different team after the Cubs series... Nola + Mears + Ornelas for Contreras .. get it done AJP... Contreras could DH on his off days Alfaro can keep him off his feet 2 or 3 times a week...and Contreras BAT is a Huge upgrade at C/DH or 1B when in the lineup (like Manny/ most days)

A couple of concerns about acquiring Contreras mid-season and selling low on Nola.

1. Pitching is the key to the Padres winning and Nola / Alfaro seem to be excelling in handing the pitching staff. Not sure throwing in a new catcher might not hurt the staff effectiveness as Contreras and the staff learn each other.
2. Contreras has a significant contract and is a FA after the season (and will command a bigger deal in 2023) ... Alfaro is a FA after 2023 ... Campusano has a lot to prove especially defensively (and Melvin want defensive 1st catchers). Nola is low cost / long control / plus defense and is performing at career lows ... bad time to to move him.

I need to wait a lot more to ensure we are targeting the right add to fill critical holes with limited trade assets and payroll space. I also ... looking at the FA after this season am reluctant to add another FA to be for controlled ML players.

I still am keeping an eye on the OF first but as we have seen pitching injuries can change the landscape quickly ... maybe the SP can be covered but if Rogers goes down Preller may be looking for a closer first then OF.

Yeah Alfaro has taken the load of the C starts or so it seems with back to back starts in Chicago...and why wouldn't looking at his season #s after yesterday's game

284

.322

.486

.808

Quote from Henry Silvestre on June 16, 2022, 7:08 am

I keep thinking let's not make another Ludwick/Frazier type trade and slow down or damage what we got.... so looking at the roster as is today... I am not worried about SP or BP at all (so many arms soon to be back from injury)....

Only ? Marks are Azocar OF/Alcantara IF/Wil's lack of pop and injury/Mazara OF

Tatis return takes care of 2 of those worries and 1bof those roster spots (Alcantara)... so a BIG BAT for RF? or perhaps a jack knife type player like Drury (Reds) or Happ (Cubs) that could play multiple positions.. might be the right move...versus a Big BAT that might stir the pot and hurt Chemistry ..aka Mancini comes and steals ABs from Hosmer/Voit and Right Fielder...

Grishman #s look like a no brainer to upgrade.BUT he does a lot of little things so well and plays GG defense in CF ..I cant for the life of me replace him now....offseason or Spring 23 battle sure... right now I am ok with carrying his bat....

Quote from fenn68 on June 16, 2022, 7:08 am

I wonder how Preller's trade strategy is tempered by the coming Padres FA ... and the cost to potentially re-sign the key ones (IF they can re-sign them). Then add the unknown about the four players who could opt-out ... can the  internal replacements be dealt, can the Padres re-sign these opt-out or a FA replacement at a reasonable cost?

I don't think the Padres want to become then next MIA of a few years ago ... go all in (maybe win) and then fall into the basement of the league for years.

It is easy to just dismiss players opting out ... but the chance is a real unknown.

1. Hosmer is having a good year and only has to beat a 3 year / $39MM deal ... with Boras as his agent. Does that push against trading Campusano who might be a replacement (or allow Alfaro / Voit DH/1B)
2. Profar is having a very good year (sitting about #4 LF if combine offense and defense). He can opt out of a $7.5MM (plus $1MM club buyout of a $10MM 2024). He is only 29 ... so this may be his shot at getting a guaranteed multi-year deal. Would the Padres try to extend him on a longer term ... more lucrative deal given their OF situation going forward? Myers and Mazara are FA so if Profar goes that puts a ton of pressure on Ruiz, Abrams, and Rooker to augment a "weak hitting" Grisham in 2023. Want to add a big bat in FA ... big money (needed to deal with SP?)
3. Martinez may be the under the radar piece ... he is having a very good run (over 50 innings) with and ERA under 4.00 with a lot of teams needing SP. He is due only $6.5MM in 2023 and the remaining years (I think) have opt ins and buyouts ... so uncertainty. He could push for a more guaranteed future given his is already 31. With Musgrove and Manaea FA, may put the Padres in a band with SP.
4. Suarez has a $5.0 MM option ...given his performance and healthy ... likely he is the one that does not opt out.

Quote from fenn68 on June 16, 2022, 7:25 am

I wouldn't be surprised (baring a major injury or an extend cold streak) if the Padres held pat ... maybe a tinkering low cost supplement)

All moves (changes) are gambles (see Ludwick and Frazier) but Padres have what looks like some very good internal gambles .... Tatis returning in July/Aug and being a major upgrade at SS ... Abrams / Ruiz / Campusano all seem to be capable to effectively support the ML offense ... the pen will have a healthy Pomeranz (maybe) plus Morejon, Baez, and Castillo on the verge of ML effectiveness. Myers should (could) also return this season.

All don't have to be ready but just a couple producing will negate the need for an external add. The added plus is all these internal options are potentially core pieces for 2023.

We have seen players over the years moved at the deadline across the league after a hot four months and go ice cold in Aug/Sep ... change is tough. That moves me a bit closer to focusing on the internal options ... especially given where they are in the standings.

Quote from BoosterSD on June 16, 2022, 8:12 am

Quote from fenn68 on June 16, 2022, 7:25 am

I wouldn't be surprised (baring a major injury or an extend cold streak) if the Padres held pat ... maybe a tinkering low cost supplement)

I still stand by my suggestion that we should look at OFer Ben Gamel. Low ML salary, hit and OBP type of guy, and should be a minimal prospect investment to PIT. And from what I see, should be able to slide into the clubhouse chemistry easily. Allowing for a back up should Myers not return and be effective, or if Mazara or Profar slip in production. Basically replacing Azocar on the roster, with proven ML success.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on June 16, 2022, 9:50 am

Quote from BoosterSD on June 16, 2022, 8:12 am

Quote from fenn68 on June 16, 2022, 7:25 am

I wouldn't be surprised (baring a major injury or an extend cold streak) if the Padres held pat ... maybe a tinkering low cost supplement)

I still stand by my suggestion that we should look at OFer Ben Gamel. Low ML salary, hit and OBP type of guy, and should be a minimal prospect investment to PIT. And from what I see, should be able to slide into the clubhouse chemistry easily. Allowing for a back up should Myers not return and be effective, or if Mazara or Profar slip in production. Basically replacing Azocar on the roster, with proven ML success.

Yup Azocar and Alcantara are our weak links..Tatis makes Alcantarana DFA waiting to happen... so Azocar is the likely replacement .. that could be CJ internally.. it could be a guy like Laurrano (A's) who also pushes CF and RF to stay productive and Profar to stay consistent... But I wouldn't do much more than that..

Hosmer opting out would be a Xmas gift... BUT Upgrading him at the deadline I wouldn't recommend ..he was terrific for KC in their WS run and he and Manny have a good friendship... so a no go in the mist of a postseason run... dont mess with that Chemistry...

Quote from BoosterSD on June 16, 2022, 10:18 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on June 16, 2022, 9:50 am

Quote from BoosterSD on June 16, 2022, 8:12 am

Quote from fenn68 on June 16, 2022, 7:25 am

I wouldn't be surprised (baring a major injury or an extend cold streak) if the Padres held pat ... maybe a tinkering low cost supplement)

I still stand by my suggestion that we should look at OFer Ben Gamel. Low ML salary, hit and OBP type of guy, and should be a minimal prospect investment to PIT. And from what I see, should be able to slide into the clubhouse chemistry easily. Allowing for a back up should Myers not return and be effective, or if Mazara or Profar slip in production. Basically replacing Azocar on the roster, with proven ML success.

Yup Azocar and Alcantara are our weak links..Tatis makes Alcantarana DFA waiting to happen... so Azocar is the likely replacement .. that could be CJ internally.. it could be a guy like Laurrano (A's) who also pushes CF and RF to stay productive and Profar to stay consistent... But I wouldn't do much more than that..

Hosmer opting out would be a Xmas gift... BUT Upgrading him at the deadline I wouldn't recommend ..he was terrific for KC in their WS run and he and Manny have a good friendship... so a no go in the mist of a postseason run... dont mess with that Chemistry...

His prospect price will be very high, especially since MIA is desperately trying to get him from OAK. So, I would say that will probably not happen.

Gamel could handle CF for a day or two in order to give time for Ruiz or Abrams to get to the field if something were to happen to Grisham.

And your right, Hosmers bat is fading again, but the chemistry on the team is glued together by him. Dont mess with it this season.

Quote from fenn68 on June 16, 2022, 11:05 am

Might want to wait on Gamel … on the DL since May 29. No idea how bad but it is a hamstring and that could linger and return.