Quote from MrPadre19 on November 27, 2019, 5:41 pm

If we don’t want to give up prospects Eric Sogard or Howie Kendrick both make sense.

Either  would probably sign a 1-2 year deal.

Both good On Base guys.

Schoop with more power and younger but not great OBP and probably looking for a longer term deal.

Personally I’d like Kendrick on a 1 year deal with an option year.

Then turn over to Edwards.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 27, 2019, 5:46 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on November 27, 2019, 5:20 pm

Tatis has the best infield arm in baseball. He had the hardest couple of throws measured from infielders last year. He has the ability to make more spectacular plays but is not as consistent as Gregorius. However, it is all moot. Tatis will not be moving off of SS. He can play the position very well, he has worked very hard to improve his defense and most importantly he knows that SS is where the money is.

San Diego has been searching for a SS forever. We have finally found a long term answer. He worked very hard to get his defense up to plus. He has a cannon arm. He has everything we could ever ask for from a franchise player. He has finally solved our SS problem. Do we really want to turn around and  poke him in the eye after 1 year? Ask him to move to a position that will pay him $100-$200 million less on his next contract? If we do, we deserve to suck forever.

Agree completely!   Sometimes all the freaking analytics "range factor" etc just seem like B.S...  Tatis COMPLETELY passes the eye test at SS, doesn't he?!  Why would we even remotely consider wasting his elite arm at 2B?  I'd try OF before that...

I get he made some bad throws, E's on routine plays, etc.  Guy is STILL 20 years old!  Let him play a little.  If 2+ full seasons (into his 8 year extension) a large amount of data says he should move off SS, do it then, but come on...

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 27, 2019, 6:02 pm

Quote from fenn68 on November 27, 2019, 4:01 pm

FA on the market that at least have some history and name recognition and could be a starter do provide a lot of options for teams in the market for a 2B ... useful types depending on the price.

On a 2019 WAR basis: Villar (4.0); Sogard (2.6); Schoop (1.3); Castro (1.3); Kipnis (1.1); Panic (o.2); Gennet (-0,5).

Of those ... padres should be looking for offense first the three that are "average or better" in wRC+ are: Sogard (115); Villar (107); Schoop (100).

So, if they want to upgrade the two they should be looking at are Villar and Sogard (although he is not normally considered full timer and really stunk in 2018). So maybe Villar is the best option.

Now if the Padres really want to make a splash ... spend some real coin ... Didi Gregorius is an intriguing option for 2B ... LHH ... outstanding fielder ... winning pedigree ... injured much of last season but in 2018 sported a 4.7 WAR ... still only 29. Not sure who else (except CINN) is in the market for him and that might mute his contract level somewhat. Not very likely BUT .....

My vote is either Villar or Howie Kendrick.  Ideally 1 + 1 deal for either, but more likely have to go 2 years.

The timing of Villar hitting Waivers right after we trade Urias is interesting; seems like we would have been in on him; wouldn't "selling" Kinsler + a prospect and paying (net) half of that salary have made sense?  But market clearly saying even though he was 4.0 WAR last year, he's not worth 1/10.5 to the point where O's just dump him for nothing?  Can't risk claiming him at > 10 MM though.

I guess if Preller can get him for 5 MM AAV for >1 year  without giving up anything , it's a better deal for Pads.... we'll see.  Can't believe his profile only gets 2/10MM?  Don't get FA sometimes...

Probably buying high on an old 2B/util on Kendrick (offense stats WAY above his career level last yr), but love the idea of him taking some of Hosmer's starts @ 1B vs LHP.  He has the veteran stature to do so in a way Ty France or even Wil Myers doesn't.

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 27, 2019, 6:04 pm

Quote from David Nevin on November 27, 2019, 5:35 pm

In the “for what it’s worth” category I heard somewhere that Jonathan Schoop is Machado best friend.

🤷🏻‍♂️

so you got the inside Scoop... on Schoop... Nive!

Quote from TatisJr on November 27, 2019, 6:15 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on November 27, 2019, 5:20 pm

Tatis has the best infield arm in baseball. He had the hardest couple of throws measured from infielders last year. He has the ability to make more spectacular plays but is not as consistent as Gregorius. However, it is all moot. Tatis will not be moving off of SS. He can play the position very well, he has worked very hard to improve his defense and most importantly he knows that SS is where the money is.

San Diego has been searching for a SS forever. We have finally found a long term answer. He worked very hard to get his defense up to plus. He has a cannon arm. He has everything we could ever ask for from a franchise player. He has finally solved our SS problem. Do we really want to turn around and  poke him in the eye after 1 year? Ask him to move to a position that will pay him $100-$200 million less on his next contract? If we do, we deserve to suck forever.

Couldn’t have said it better, Jason! All this talk about Tatis moving out of the SS is just crazy. He’s a 20 year old face of the franchise with unbelievable arm strength and athleticism at the SS position. Lock the kid up contract wise and enjoy the show!

Quote from fenn68 on November 28, 2019, 6:51 am

The more I think about the trade, the more I like it even though I saw the potential in Urias.

Start with the expected productivity of Davies over Lauer for the next two seasons ... two seasons that the Padres want to show major improvement. Expect Davis to yield 1 - 2 runs per game LESS than Lauer and that by itself should generate more wins. After 2 years, the wave of Gore, Patino, etc. take over.

Then the two upside prospects. With Grisham we have a LHH, 3 slot OF, with some power. Padres system does have a short term need for that profile even if he become just an “average” ML player. With Urias his value increased as MILW viewed him as a SS but that value is not with the Padres (with Tatis). More options to fill 2B both in the short run and for the Padres the long run with Edwards and Arias.

After listen to some analysis, the projection on Urias may have dropped to becoming a very good ML player but not that potential star player. His clear struggle with inside velocity will limit his ceiling. Still a good ML player ... it is not an all or nothing issue.

Similar with Grisham ... floor may be a good ML player with a valuable CF option ... the real wild card is last year’s modification to Grisham’s swing to change his contact point which resulted in a major leap in productivity. Is that repeatable?

So both Urias and Grisham fill some longer term needs for their new club either as an “average” ML player with both having some upside.

Probably one of those deals where both teams benefit.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 28, 2019, 9:48 am

Really good analysis FENN.  I didn't like Urias for Grisham at first glance, but after digesting it awhile I get it...

The Padres have so many internal & external options at 2B (plus relatively high $ commit of 5.25 MM already Kinsler/Garcia) that Urias is simply more expendable.  I have always been a Urias fan, but it's undeniable he's really at best a 3-tool player (limited power & speed) whose hit tool is everything; diametric opposite of Gettys & Buddy Reed.  And his ability to play SS has less value to the Pads with the luxury of Machado as a backup there.

Grisham basically had the season last year the Pads hope Trammell has this year.  Very similar acquisition.  If Pads hit on 1 of 2 of them, they're in pretty good shape; same if 2 of 4 of:  Grisham, Trammell, Cordero, Naylor.  Ultimately "hitting" on 3 or all 4 of these guys would be a jackpot.  Simply needed the LH OF more than the RH 2B.

LOVE the Davies for Lauer part.  Sneaky good.  I had trading either Lucchessi or Lauer on my "Should" list this offseason; had to trade at least one of them while their value was at it's peak (pre-arb).  On my ranking of all Pads SP's, Davies simply takes Lauer's place as #8 (Gore, Richards, Paddack, Lamet, Patino, Morejon, Lucchessi)... but he's better than Lauer & unlike Lauer, a justifiable lock in current rotation.  But what I really love is his relative value:  Compare 26 yr old Davies with his career stats @ 1/5 MM OR 2/12-13 MM to the #4/5 options in FA projected for significantly more $:  Kyle Gibson 32, Tanner Roark 33, Julio Teheran 29, Wade Miley 33....  This is EXACTLY where I felt Pads should NOT spend 8-9 MM AAV.  As the top FA's sign, Davies could look awfully good in comparison, and actually increase in value before ST.  Not out of the question they flip him (if they get a top tier guy).

Also Love the Pomeranz signing.  "Solves" the 'need to extend Yates, but can't afford to' issue while providing way better value than Yates extension + Stammen (or similar) signing would have, while simultaneously boosting Yates' potential trade value.  Some may see it as a "risky" deal; but pretty easy to argue Pomeranz is worth 4/20 simply as a mediocre up & down #5 SP!

 

Quote from Randy Manese on November 28, 2019, 11:17 am

Lot of talk about Urias production/potential compared to Grisham's production/potential but I see that more like an apples to oranges comparison.  Actually, we want Urias to perform well both next year and down the road so the value of trading for Padre prospects is realized.  I look more for the incremental difference in the very short run for having someone like Quiroz or others already on the roster until the next Urias (Edwards) is ready.  Likewise, the current Padre roster has no one that is complete player who bats left-handed.  Naylor may be close as hitter and arguably better in the long run as a hitter but is horrible in the OF.  Cordero is often-injured has walk rate of under 7% and a strikeout rate of near 30%.  Grisham sits at a 15% walk rate and a strikeout rate of under 20% besides being a better OF than either of the two.  What we get in Grisham is exactly what we need for 2020 and possibly beyond until Trammell and Abrams come up to be competitive.  For 2020, at 2b, my guess is that Quiroz pushes his way to the top based on his high walk rate, solid hitting skills, maturity and the fact he bats LH.  In fact, if Urias had not been traded, I had Quiroz pushing Garcia off the roster because Quiroz is the better player and sharing 2b with Urias.   In Milwaukee, there is a great chance that Urias ends up at 2b with Turang coming up to play short; Hiura is a great hitter but a defensive liability.  I'm happy for Luis and think he will prosper but we are better today as a team in 2020 than we were two days ago.

Quote from Commie on November 28, 2019, 1:08 pm

Nice to have Quiroz as depth, but no chance he is in the mix it Garcia is around.  Much more likely they go outside organization. Can't be developing players at C, SS, CF and 2B and expect to contend. Grisham and Mejia should be the only two real projects (plus Tatis) on the 26 man.

Villar is a convenient fit. Lots of 2b available.  Merrifield anyone? Josh Harrison would have been interesting.