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Trade ideas
#601 · November 23, 2019, 10:55 am
Quote from fenn68 on November 23, 2019, 10:06 amNot questioning the trade value of Castillo ... just if CINN was pursing Grandal before he signed and in on Wheeler they want to win now and IF they traded Castillo they want equivalent ML productivity in return (not prospects). Keeping Castillo is better for them than prospects / fringe ML players.
Padres (other than Tatis) have nothing at the ML level to work a Castillo deal ... and CINN does not have to deal him unless they are "overwhelmed".
Remember they traded a top prospect (Trammell) to get a veteran in Bauer. Heard nothing about them changing their direction.
So I agree, I dont think the Reds are trying to not compete, but use money and assets that they have in order to making their team better, and use trade to get player types that are not available on the FA market. As I mentioned, Jeff Joyce was wondering why, with already having Bauer, Castillo, DeScalfani, and Gray, why they would chase Wheeler? His chain of thought was maybe, it was so they could trade from a strength, ML SP. And his suggestion was Castillo, so they could obtain areas where they are weak, which would be by his account, C, 2B, CF, and Corner OF bat. So I was wondering if we have the pieces to put something together. Yes, they will want some ML pieces back, and Margot and Urias might not be the best available, but they are not trash, they are cheap, and areas of need for CIN. And CIN is similar to SD where they should be smart with their money, so the inexpensive pieces in Margot and Urias can help with overall salary.
#602 · November 23, 2019, 11:17 am
Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 23, 2019, 10:30 amCastillo trade with Wheeler signing makes as much sense as Paddack trade if we sign Wheeler ..whats the point ?
Back to a Blockbuster ..Bryant + Contreras to Padres for Myers $15mil + Morejon + Quantrill + Bolanos+ Mejia + Arias + Ornelas ... Let's Go!
Not really, we do not have as strong a rotation as CIN does. At least not yet. We can not afford to give up Paddock, CIN can better handle the loss of Castillo, because of Bauer, DeScalfani, and Grey if they sign Wheeler.
So in your love affair with the players of CHC, where exactly does the All Star 3B Kris Bryant play in SD?
And how does SD handle his $18.5M in salary for 2020?
And lastly, if he wins his case against the Cubs and MLB, and he is declared a FA after 2020 season, what do you do then?
You have traded 2 SP candidates, a RP, a switch hitting C, and possible ML caliber SS and CF for what, 1 year of an displaced 3B, and a catcher that you control for three seasons?
Plus, now you only have around $12M to add a SP.
#603 · November 23, 2019, 12:55 pm
Has Fowler made Preller’s job of making trades this winter more difficult with this win or heads will roll PUBLIC comments? He could make his point to Preller directly but be more strategic in his public commentary.
Just as many fans run with that comment that Preller’s job is on the line .... 29 other GM are also listening and may just become more difficult to deal with thinking Preller has to make the move and is boxed into overpaying.
Love the ownership’s approach to running the club and PETCO facility .... money has been available for the ill fated 2015 moves, mega international spending in 2016, and major signing of Hosmer / Machado ... PETCO is just first class and continually being up graded ... and they have been good community citizens. HOWEVER, Fowler the Fan may make some fans happy .... but maybe not doing the best for development of the team.
#604 · November 23, 2019, 1:59 pm
I think Ron Fowler may just be playing that role for the fans. If we see him getting passionate about the team being bad then we can believe that he is doing something about it. I think 95% of an owner's and GM's jobs are to be able to lie convincingly. The Padres are a product. They are constantly being sold to us. GM statements, public ownership rants and planted news stories are their versions of commercials and pop-up ads.
I am sure other GM have come to AJ many times already after Fowler's rant and tried to take advantage of his "desperate situation". He hasn't traded the family cow for manic beans yet and I don't think he will. It's like the two sets of books AJ had for players injuries. One for him, the other for other teams. In this case, there are the lies he tells us(the customer, the public) and the lies he tells to other teams GMs. The truth is probably written on papyrus, locked inside a cryptex with a bottle of vinegar, locked inside a Swiss bank that AJ is the only person on Earth who knows where and how to access and will never tell, even on pain of death.
#605 · November 23, 2019, 3:34 pm
Agree that Preller is probably not altering his valuations on players ... always get the feeling he will just stay his course. My issue is the other GMs .... searching for an edge .... play a bit more hardball in completing a deal (e.g. get that extra or better trade chip in return) assuming Preller is under the gun from the owner.
That usually results in deals just getting tabled until one team breaks or moves to an alternative partner. In this case, could well be Preller moves to his second choice not wanting to wait for the team with the first option to budge ... at the same time there may be other suitors that convince the seller to deal with them.
Shouldn't stop deals ... just make them more difficult to pull off.
#606 · November 23, 2019, 4:42 pm
Quote from fenn68 on November 23, 2019, 3:34 pmAgree that Preller is probably not altering his valuations on players ... always get the feeling he will just stay his course. My issue is the other GMs .... searching for an edge .... play a bit more hardball in completing a deal (e.g. get that extra or better trade chip in return) assuming Preller is under the gun from the owner.
That usually results in deals just getting tabled until one team breaks or moves to an alternative partner. In this case, could well be Preller moves to his second choice not wanting to wait for the team with the first option to budge ... at the same time there may be other suitors that convince the seller to deal with them.
Shouldn't stop deals ... just make them more difficult to pull off.
If this were true, there would be a line out of Brodie van Wagenen's door with every GM looking to dump their bloated contracts(Myers) for whatever prospect treasures they have left in the wake of the Cano for Kelenic trade.
A few smacks to the muzzle and other GM's will get the idea. AJ has never been willing to part with prospect capital. I doubt anybody outside of the Padre fanbase(which is who Fowler's show was intended for) is expecting that to change.
#607 · November 23, 2019, 4:46 pm
Quote from fenn68 on November 23, 2019, 3:34 pmAgree that Preller is probably not altering his valuations on players ... always get the feeling he will just stay his course. My issue is the other GMs .... searching for an edge .... play a bit more hardball in completing a deal (e.g. get that extra or better trade chip in return) assuming Preller is under the gun from the owner.
That usually results in deals just getting tabled until one team breaks or moves to an alternative partner. In this case, could well be Preller moves to his second choice not wanting to wait for the team with the first option to budge ... at the same time there may be other suitors that convince the seller to deal with them.
Shouldn't stop deals ... just make them more difficult to pull off.
It would require multiple teams to adopt this stance vis-a-vis AJ. That's risky if not everyone plays the game. I think the flaw in the logic is coming at it from a Padre centric mindset. I guess it could occur in a very discreet number of interactions with limited teams in on a player. Don't see it with Marte for instance. Too many suitors. Cherington is not going to reject a proposal from AJ that is better than the others just because he thinks AJ will up the ante because "Heads will roll."
#608 · November 23, 2019, 5:32 pm
Of course if Preller has the best offer the deal is made but when does the other GM concede that? If the other GM thinks waiting Preller out longer (because Preller is under pressure) gets more he may not jump in the best deal ASAP and that lag allows another team move into play. Not as though the other GM have to deal or don’t have other alternatives. Neither party has to deal.
Using an old marketing philosophy ... “under promise and over deliver” will get you more loyalty than “over promise and under deliver” which usually gets you unhappy customers. Fowler is “over promising” on something he has little control (winning ... especially in a Division with the LAD) and then doubling down with a “promise” of heads rolling. Boxing himself into a corner to appease some fans today who will turn on him if the Padres don’t deliver .... and that for 2020 is a long shot even if they scuttle the farm system for quick fixes.
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Of course, “head will roll” might not even refer to Preller and the front office who seem to be delivering on their prime objective of building from within (with Fowler’s approval). Could be more directed at the underperforming players: Myers, Renfroe, Hedges, Hosmer, et al. Fowler and Preller seem to be on the same page so maybe the veteran players are the target of his ire. 2021 has the “old guard’ gone and a full run with the prospects? A 2021 “re-image”?
Also, the head that may roll is Fowler’s. He did say when they bought the team he would head baseball operations for about 5 years then step back .... that time in here. Pass the torch to Siedler (lead owner) with Greupner (business side) and Preller (Baseball side) running the show.
#609 · November 23, 2019, 6:25 pm
"Heads will roll" has only one interpretation: AJ and other front office. Players, especially mentioned, have no concerns with job security beyond this year in MLB. Player movement is not guillotine worthy.
#610 · November 23, 2019, 6:32 pm
Every GM is under pressure.. From LAD $2 Billion spent last 4 seasons NO RINGS ...to Pitts new GM ..time to impress the Boss for the nee kid..
If you go on other teams fan boards .mevery other Sox fan wants Beni traded.. Wants Price and Cole gone.. Wants Betts long-term..etc..etc.. Just because ownership in Boston wants to get under lux tax.mdoesnt doesn't mean teams will give them crap for their high price Vets.. What I am getting at is all GMs have some sort of pressure to do things innthe off-season I dont think there is an advantage to dealing or trying to make a deal by reading GM headlines from writers/owners or fans..