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Trade ideas
#341 · November 7, 2019, 5:09 pm
Quote from Brian Connelly on November 7, 2019, 3:29 pmYeah, if you honestly assess Hedges, where he actually fits best is on a strong offensive AL team batting 9th. Preferably a mid to large payroll where they have the $ to spend on "just" his defense.
He would also work on a large payroll NL team that's really elite either Offensively or Pitching/Defensively. The Pads extreme depth at C makes it certain Preller is going to explore Hedges' value; but ideally would like better than .176/.252 to trade him...
That being said, 2 ideas I've had about Hedges/Pads C situation: 1) It's clear to me that Hedges could "take over" as the primary C on any playoff team where the SP is elite & you know the game is going to be close. Especially if the more Offensive C (Mejia, for example) is not "hot" heading into the playoffs, or has a track record of being vulnerable to the SP's being faced.
2) This idea has emerged in last week or so: Looking at Pads' 40-man roster composition. Our SS & 3B are going to start like 155 games each if healthy. 1B by pay should as well, but may have to sub RH hitter more vs LHP if Hosmer can't begin to do better. Only 2B playing time likely to be <150 starts... SO is it possible Pads go with a weird bench composition of only 1 backup INF (Garcia), but 2 C's to better capitalize on someone else playing 1B vs LHP sometimes, and just better pinch hitting bench? 2 bench OF as usual. (assumes 13 P, 13 position players).
They need 13 position players (per rules) and 13 P with the new 26... 8 starters 2 C 1 IF 2 OF 2 would be ideal... they can shuttle a 2nd C and backup IF and OFers back and forth AAA/MLB as needed
#342 · November 7, 2019, 6:20 pm
Quote from TatisJr on November 7, 2019, 1:08 pmQuote from Brian Connelly on November 7, 2019, 11:51 amQuote from JasonE135 on November 7, 2019, 11:17 amPersonal catchers are a very bad idea. Hedges can help guys get better pitching numbers by stealing more strikes. Let's be honest, what do pitchers care about? Their numbers. Everyone will want to pitch to Hedges to inflate their numbers and get them more money when they become a free agent. Problem is it will cost us more games overall because of the hole he puts in our lineup.
Hedges is like ice cream: he tastes great but is bad for you. If you give two of your five kids ice cream every meal, do you think the others might get jealous and whine and complain? Rotate Hedges with everyone.
Jason, this is a GREAT point! I do think a guy of Strasburg's stature gets Hedges if he wants him, b/c team shouldn't need to score as many runs to win those games. Garrett Richards & Chris Paddack have not earned that stature.
BUT it is a real thing that EVERY P would prefer to pitch to Hedges, on literally 27-28 teams in MLB. It's almost an unfair comparison for ANY other C, and sort of puts the other guy in an impossible position; Mejia has one of the few C arms in MLB BETTER than Hedges, but he'll still never be Hedges defensively, no matter how much he improves... It is a real argument to be made that you just trade Hedges & take that off the table altogether, so P stop whining about not getting to pitch to Hedges & just live with whoever's there & you get WAY more offense from the position.
I personally think Pads should enter year with Hedges; but with 4 C on roster, 2 in AAA being legit prospects, and Campusano in AA, they will have to trade him or another C no later than next offseason (Torrens out of options next year).
Great post Jason and Brian! I felt like it was noticeable with some pitchers in 2019 who displayed outright displeasure when Mejia was behind the dish. That’s part of my reasoning for wanting Hedges traded. Hedges work behind the dish is AMAZING and the guy prepares with a staff like no other. His work with a young staff was truly a huge asset to team the last couple of years. If the Padres acquire an ace, go with a dominant rotation 2020, it makes Hedges less valuable to the Padres IMO. Think about some of the dominant rotations in the MLB over the last 10 years or so. The catching situations haven’t all been some elite defenders Gomes in Wash. Chirinos in Houston. Alex Avila with those Verlander/Scherzer teams, the A’s and Rays good staffs filtered through various non elites at catcher. If Hedges is on the roster he will be the guy pitchers want to go with and that’s super tough on Mejia. Can Mejia get the starts and develop as a catcher with an elite defensive stud like Hedges on the roster? I think its difficult and has potential to cause unnecessary clubhouse issues. We need Mejias bat in the lineup and Hedges won’t be content in a part time role. Mejia/Torrens as the 2020 catching duo with a dominant staff would be just fine with me.
Not an attack or anything, but Chirinos, Gomes and Avila are defense first guys. No way they can go with two essentially rookies behind the dish and expect to win. Trade Hedges and sign Chirinos (or Lucroy as a distant second alternative). Straight platoon as the Plan but be prepared to trade Chirinos to a team by who needs a starter and has a good be back up if Mejia shoes he's ready. Tough sell to Chirinos even if not overt plan. His agent isn't stupid.
#343 · November 7, 2019, 6:37 pm
So if I’m reading this correctly Hedges is so good defensively he will cause problems with our staff all wanting him to Catch them so we need to trade him away.
#344 · November 7, 2019, 6:45 pm
Chirinos and Avila ARE NOT defensive catchers and never have been. After looking at the metrics Gomes is good defensively, I got that wrong with him.
#345 · November 7, 2019, 7:00 pm
Quote from David Nevin on November 7, 2019, 6:37 pmSo if I’m reading this correctly Hedges is so good defensively he will cause problems with our staff all wanting him to Catch them so we need to trade him away.
I think that excludes some important details from what I said. The offense needs to improve right, Mr. P? I’ve seen you say that multiple times. Replacing Mejia with a guy who hit .176 would definitely improve the offense. Yes, the staff will want Hedges to catch them over Mejia. I don’t see Hedges being fine with a split time/personal catcher role. All that combined with a young catcher knowing the staff wants the other guy I’m sure won’t help Mejias development. There is plenty of potential for clubhouse issues with all that. My main point in the last post was I think Hedges was extremely valuable to the 2018, 2019 Padres teams with an ultra young staff. He did a hell of a job! If we add an Ace and have a dominant pitching staff, I feel Hedges skill set isn’t as important to 2020 Padres.
#346 · November 7, 2019, 7:56 pm
A catcher with Hedges skills are always extremely valuable. He maxed the scale on pop-times and pitch framing, meaning there is nobody better. I think we should absolutely keep him. I just think we need to treat everyone on the team like adults, not children. Nobody gets him as a personal catcher. He plays when he plays, period. Mostly against left-handed pitchers.
All of our pitchers are young(outside of Richards). Nobody has earned the right to make demands. Hedges hasn't earned that right either. He doesn't want to be a backup? Too bad. Hit more. We have him for 3 more years. He cannot tank it or he will lose money when he hits FA. He is the perfect backup until Campusano gets here. Sure he wants to be "the man". Almost every guy in every bullpen probably wanted to be a starter. It didn't work. They all got over it. Hedges can too.
#347 · November 8, 2019, 8:34 am
Ok, crazy trade idea. Myers, Yates, Urias, Bolanos, and Patino for Pederson and Lux. Then SD signs FAs Strasburg, Dickerson, Hudson, and Kendrick. Total salary for 2020 is about $147M.
Starting line up vs RHP, is Machado, Tatis, Lux, Hosmer, Mejia, Dickerson, Pederson, and Cordero. Bench is Renfroe, France or Garcia, Hedges, Margot, and Kendrick.
Starting line up vs LHP is Machado, Tatis, Lux, Kendrick, Hedges, Dickerson, Margot, and Renfroe. Bench is Pederson, France or Garcia, Mejia, Cordero, and Hosmer.
Starting rotation of Strasburg, Richards, Luchessi, Paddock, and Lamet.
#348 · November 8, 2019, 10:46 am
Interesting! But LAD get only 1 yr Yates. Patino the "big" piece. If Pederson > Myers (who would go on to hit .320 / .400 / .500 in LA, I'm sure), and Lux > Urias, not sure that's enough in division...
LOVE the FA suggestions though. Esp Kendrick! He's a perfect fit playing some 2B, OF, DH ALWAYS! & 1B vs LHP
#349 · November 8, 2019, 11:15 am
Peterson is < Myers overall and can’t hit LHP at $8.5MM and ... importantly only has one year of control. LAD would love to move him.
Adding Myers to this deal (or any deal) probably sends LAD running the other way.
Sounds like a Yates - Urias - Bolanos - Patino for Lux deal since neither Peterson nor Meyers has much trade value. A pretty big NO.
#350 · November 8, 2019, 11:22 am
Quote from fenn68 on November 8, 2019, 11:15 amPeterson is < Myers overall and can’t hit LHP at $8.5MM and ... importantly only has one year of control. LAD would love to move him.
Adding Myers to this deal (or any deal) probably sends LAD running the other way.
Sounds like a Yates - Urias - Bolanos - Patino for Lux deal since neither Peterson nor Meyers has much trade value. A pretty big NO.
No from the SD side or LA side, out of curiosity.
As far as Pederson v Myers. You are right, he can not hit LHP. But against RHP he was .252BA, .349OBP with 36 HRs and an OPS+ of 141. Take that platoon with Margot all day long.
So Dickerson runs us $7.5M, Pederson is $8.5M, Margot is $2.1M, Renfroe is $3.4M, and Cordero is $600K. The OF will cost us right around $22M, would be very productive.