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Trade ideas

I am not looking forward to any trades this off season. Everyone here has said we HAVE to win in 2020. Even management and ownership has said so. So now teams know they can just say no until they get everything that they want from us for what we want (Or need now). Not leverage=no power.

We have the prospects to make them say yes.

 

I like the rockies pitchers a lot.

Quote from JasonE135 on October 1, 2019, 2:38 pm
I would think that if their major reason for making trades is financial
Arb 2 and 3 is financial. Though in Gray's case it's not going to be nearly as punishing since he'd be expected to receive 18m over the next 2.
Quote from Cptjack on October 2, 2019, 5:09 am

I like the rockies pitchers a lot.

Quote from JasonE135 on October 1, 2019, 2:38 pm
I would think that if their major reason for making trades is financial
Arb 2 and 3 is financial. Though in Gray's case it's not going to be nearly as punishing since he'd be expected to receive 18m over the next 2.

What we can’t tell with Colorado is the overall financial position handicapped by some large immovable contracts. If they have to deal with an overall spending level and most of that is consumed by those contracts .... even the smaller arbitration deals become a problem. If they look and conclude they don’t have the financial flexibility to compete in the near term ... go to a “rebuild” ... maybe they move who they can to save some money and build some 6 year control / minimum cost for the future.

Would think Gray is a more likely trade chip given his control / cost combo and a major demand for quality SP ... Colo could score some legit prospects by dealing him as part of their rebuild.

As fans we tend to look at the players we see daily and tend to over value / under value them ... just the way it is. Since OF has come up as an area to improve ... though I would look at how the 2019 OF stacked up vs. playoff teams / rest of MLB. Used fWAR.

Not good. Padres were 20th (4.4 fWAR ... Reyes was 1.0 of that). For the playoff teams, it ranged from LAD (17.7 ... 4X better than SD) to STL (6.9) and STL was an outlier low since #9 of the playoff teams was MILW at 9.3 more than double SD.

Returning Padres: Renfroe (1.9); Margot (1.6); Myers (1.8); Naylor (-0.2); Martini (-0.1) .... total 4.2 fWAR ... not playoff quality.

Some of the names that have showed up on the trade comments: Benintendi (2.0); Marte (3.0); Reddick (1.0); and Eaton (2.3). None ... by themselves ... will be that game changer. Not sure the production out of the INF / pitching can fill in the OF shortfall.

Padres need some OF to emerge from the minors ... and near term they only have Cordero (2 years of injury), Trammell (struggled in AA for most of the season), and Olivares (good AA but not previously considered an elite prospect). Have to be quite optimistic that that crop will dramatically improve the ML OF .... in 2020 (if ever) and the Padres need more than one coming through.

Padres need to really push the envelope in adding some longer control ... impact OFs and at the same time just add some upgrades for the remaining slots to get an better overall result.

Absolutely. We still need young guys. You only get the older guys at the end of their careers when you are 1 player away. We are not there. We need more building blocks. Our farm system was/is amazing, but it is 70% pitching at the top. Our only big position players were Tatis and Urias, and now Trammell. We need at least 1 more outfielder in addition to Trammell. And they need time to develop. That's just the way it is. We tried the quick fix a few years ago with Kemp and Upton. That didn't work. We need a solid base of young players. We have that in the pitching staff and infield, not the outfield.

At 45-45..when healthy Renfroe was at 3.2 WAR.. How much of his decline was due to his multiple injuries vs how much of an absolute fluke was his 1st half? But lets say there is a middle or benefit of the doubt # of 2.8 WAR for Renfroe... And we get a Benentendi with improvements and all 2.5.... And Margot plattons at 2..Naylor adds 1..and we manage 1.5 from the rest...Thats 9.8 without adding a STUD..or keeping Myers (if he puts it all together can easily be 3WAR.. ) just saying ..dont think thats too much to ask for (improvement) and left some additional space.. There..

 

By the way only 64 players in all of baseball achieved 4.0 WAR or better.. Thats an avg of 2 per team ..we had 1 Tatis Jr... And thats all positions and pitchers... So a 3.0 OF like Marte is pretty good since there are only a hand full of OFers in that > 4 range... I think a goal of 9 WAR by our 3 starting OFers would be a vast improvement and in line with some playoff teams.. I mean LAD got 1/2 their WAR from 1 player..otherwise they too would have been around 9-10 WAR...

Looking at this from the perspective of getting that super OF via trade is not going to happen ... but if it did it would cost other key players needed to win. So, making the 5 OF slots better .. even incrementally is the more realistic option ... for now ... until some real blue chip internal prospect arrive.

Looking at the incumbents .... not all that confident of any major improvement .... and certainly not all five ... so dealing for those incremental adds is needed.

Looking at the incumbents:

Renfroe .... 1.9 (2019) followed years at 1.6 and 0.2 ...

Margot ... 1.6 followed years at 0.6 and 1.9 ...

Myers ... 0.5 followed years at 1.6 and 0.9 (although in 2016 he hit 3.5)

Naylor at - 0.2 and Martini at -0.2 with no real history.

Getting all 5 to exceed their histories is like winning the lottery. Maybe don’t need (and realistically can’t) replace them all but getting at least one (preferably two) proven upgrades (2.0 WAR or better) should do a lot to get the Padres to the winning side of .500.

Expecting improvements from all our outfielders...even small ones,is unrealistic.

Plus we know AJ isn’t gonna sit on his hands and tell Fowler.....”everyone will just do better next season”....”we’ll be alright with what we have”.

Aint gonna happen.

So knowing changes will be made on offense means obviously changes will be made in the outfield.

 

Incremental upgrades are possible. That is what we should shoot for. An outfielder or two who can give us around a 2.0 WAR and do it against right-handed pitchers.