Forum
Forum Navigation
Trade ideas
#151 · October 23, 2019, 4:31 pm
On target with the Lucchesi ... near the same productive value over then next three years (projected) but Price costs $96MM and Lucchesi maybe $16MM with a Super 2 and 2 more arbs ... so carrying something like $80MM "excess value" over Price without counting the additional control year from Lucchesi.
Following that logic (weak as it may be) .... Boston to get Lucchesi should give Price, take Myers and his full contract, and kick in some more money to offset part of Price's contract.
Key of course is the current Price is likely on the decline at ages 34-36 vs. Lucchesi may be on the ascent in his mid-20s ... and if they are producing equally in 2019 ... Lucchesi is the guy you want even without the salary inequity. The Price you want is lost in the past.
Think Boston's best option if they wanted to move Price is eat about $12MM+ per year and accept high level prospects as the return.
Note I am saying this while not being a particular fan of Lucchesi for the long haul ... but if I were to trade him (and his 2.0 WAR) in a pitching starved MLB .... would shoot for that illusive impact bat probably at a lower price point (or even just significant incremental upgrades in hitting) and still rely on Gore, Patino, et. al. to provide the future pitching beginning in late 2020. If they go for that top of the rotation arm ... it better be a legit top of the rotation arm now and going forward .. not a fading star from the past.
#152 · October 23, 2019, 5:09 pm
Exactly. All of the value lies in Lucchesie at this point while Price does nothing for us. I don't really want him for the long term either, but I want Price a whole lot less. I don't agree with how WAR translates to monetary value. If it did Myers and Lucchesie value at roughly 3.0 WAR so they will value at $24 million together. Since that is roughly what they are being paid, it should only take Lucchesie for someone to take all of Myers contract. Because the real world doesn't work purely by WAR calculations I am sure it would take Lucchesie AND us paying half of Myers remaining contract to get someone to take him. Or trading Lucchesie for a bat should get us a 2.0 WAR bat. Or we could sign Dickerson. He would cost around $8 million and I believe was worth around 2 WAR. How is that for value? Whatever. Let's just stay away from Price and use our lefties for something of value.
#153 · October 23, 2019, 5:26 pm
Price is damaged goods......closer to the end like maybe a year.
Let Boston enjoy that contract and pay him and build our own staff with our own young guys and maybe one STUD when the time is right but Price is not that guy.........not even close
#154 · October 24, 2019, 1:08 pm
This trade scenario comes from the fansided website. It suggests SD gets Betts, and BOS gets Renfroe, X Edwards, Luis Patino, and Luis Campusano. Without trading Myers, and taking Betts, I estimate that the 2020 payroll would be around $138M, leaving about $12M if you think that SD can extend its payroll to the $150M mark. So $12M to add to the starting rotation, because Betts would take care of the OF situation, for one year.
#155 · October 24, 2019, 1:36 pm
It's funny how this fansided website author thinks. He has 5 trade scenarios to 5 different teams which are nowhere near equal. I mean, he has the Angels giving up 0 top 100 prospects to get Betts, yet somehow it is going to cost us 3!? Plus Renfroe? Patino alone is worth more than the Angels whole package. There is no way we should even think about trading that much talent for a rental.
#156 · October 24, 2019, 2:10 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on October 24, 2019, 1:08 pmThis trade scenario comes from the fansided website. It suggests SD gets Betts, and BOS gets Renfroe, X Edwards, Luis Patino, and Luis Campusano. Without trading Myers, and taking Betts, I estimate that the 2020 payroll would be around $138M, leaving about $12M if you think that SD can extend its payroll to the $150M mark. So $12M to add to the starting rotation, because Betts would take care of the OF situation, for one year.
I mean only way that package makes sense is if Betts agrees to a 12yr $400 mil extension as part of the trade... 1 yr of Betts is about = 1 yr of Gokdschdmit + a little extra.. So Naylor + Morejon + Arias and Lucchesi ..
#157 · October 24, 2019, 2:27 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on October 24, 2019, 1:08 pmSpoilerThis trade scenario comes from the fansided website. It suggests SD gets Betts, and BOS gets Renfroe, X Edwards, Luis Patino, and Luis Campusano. Without trading Myers, and taking Betts, I estimate that the 2020 payroll would be around $138M, leaving about $12M if you think that SD can extend its payroll to the $150M mark. So $12M to add to the starting rotation, because Betts would take care of the OF situation, for one year.
Betts is a top 3 player in MLB......no way I give up this for one year.
If he agrees to an extension ok.
Or take out Edwards or Campusano.
#158 · October 24, 2019, 2:52 pm
It's a one year rental. Betts has already said he is going to free agency. He wants a $400 million contract. People need to understand that that seriously hurts his value. Betts really only has value to a team that thinks he can put them over the top. What does one year of Betts get you? My guess is that the Sox best offers are going to be much lower than this. It reminds me of the trade deadline this year: everybody thought that the Mets would get a haul near to this for Noah Syndergaard. No offer came anywhere close. I see that happening again. I think the Red Sox will just end up keeping Betts.
#159 · October 24, 2019, 5:47 pm
Quote from David Nevin on October 24, 2019, 2:27 pmQuote from BoosterSD on October 24, 2019, 1:08 pmThis trade scenario comes from the fansided website. It suggests SD gets Betts, and BOS gets Renfroe, X Edwards, Luis Patino, and Luis Campusano. Without trading Myers, and taking Betts, I estimate that the 2020 payroll would be around $138M, leaving about $12M if you think that SD can extend its payroll to the $150M mark. So $12M to add to the starting rotation, because Betts would take care of the OF situation, for one year.
Betts is a top 3 player in MLB......no way I give up this for one year.
If he agrees to an extension ok.
Ot take out Edwards or Campusano.
ONE year of Betts? Take out Edwards and Campusano. Yet, with this major managerial hire blunder, AJ knows it's now or never for him. I expect 2015 redux.
#160 · October 24, 2019, 6:04 pm
Take out Patino. He is far more critical to us than Edwards is. If we want to have a truly strong rotation he is going to be essential. Who do we have for our long-term rotation? Paddack, Gore and who? I believe in Quantrill but I don't think everyone else does. Morejon has HUGE promise but hasn't proven anything yet. Patino is #3 of our big 3. We have an overabundance of SS/2B prospects. That being said, I wouldn't make this trade even without Patino.