Quote from fenn68 on October 21, 2019, 1:27 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on October 21, 2019, 1:04 pm

In an effort to obtain a LLH OF; with OBP skills, any chance that we could get Brandon Marsh from ANA? Had a good season at AA last year, and according to MLB.com could be ready this season. I know ANA needs SP, and according to MLBTR upgrade at C. With Upton in LF, Trout in CF, and a combo of Otani, Goodwin, and Adell on his way soon, they could handle the loss of Marsh.

ANA gets Hedges, Luchessi, and Wingenter for Marsh?

Good call ... Marsh (LAA #2 prospect but not a MLB Top 100) should be available for the right package. Looks like a decent hitter with good defense in all three OF spots.

Would guess LAA would want someone who would step in as an effective ML SP as the focal point of the return. Lucchesi (4 years of control and still at league minimum) might do it straight-up ..... actually may be a bit rich for a non-Top 100 prospect in AA giving an “average” ML SP. Might be able to do a more balanced “prospect” deal using Quantrill for Marsh ...

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side benefit of a move for Marsh (assuming the Padres see his upside) .... along with Trammell .... would make it “easier” to deal any of the current OF plus Cordero or Olivares if needed to close a bigger deal.

Quote from JasonE135 on October 21, 2019, 8:04 pm

Unfortunately the Angels are well aware of the promise that Marsh shows. I believe that they would expect a top 50 prospect type of return for him. I believe he may be a top 50 prospect when the next re-rank comes out. Besides which, I do not believe that Preller intends to use his trade capital on any more prospects. He will want someone who has already proven themself in the majors, not someone he is going to have to HOPE comes through. He very well may want to get him, but he will get an mlb level outfielder or two first.

Quote from BoosterSD on October 23, 2019, 11:49 am

With our current roster for the most part, what I have tracked, the current SD payroll for 2020 including arbitration increases and the mandatory increase for league minimum ($600K guess on my part), should be around $116.5M including dead money and buyouts. If they can handle a payroll of $150M, that leaves $33M for FA signings and trades.

This is for Henry S. I dont think that BOS is going to trade Benintendi, so how about this one?

BOS gets Myers, Naylor, Luchessi, Urias, and Jank. SD gets Bradley Jr., Price, and Chivas plus $5M per year in cash. That saves BOS $15M in salary to help them get back under the luxury tax. SD new payroll would then be around $130M for 2020, leaving them $20M for FA signings.

Then SD signs Akiyama for 4 years/$28M, 5, 6, 8, 9 per season. Then sign Cole or Strasburg, will have to structure it so it starts a little lower with a signing bonus as they did with Machado last season, and scales up to meet the $150 level for SD this year.

Then versus RHSP you could run out, Machado, Tatis, Chivas, Hosmer, Cordero in LF, JBJ in CF, and Akiyama in RF, and Mejia.

Then versus LHSP you could start, Machado, Tatis, Chivas, Hosmer/France based on history, Margot in LF, Akiyama/JBJ based on match ups in CF, and Renfroe in RF, and Mejia or Hedges based on match up.

Quote from JasonE135 on October 23, 2019, 12:23 pm

I think that if we want to trade Myers we need to just bite the bullet, pay half of his salary and throw in a couple prospects. We probably need to give up at least one real prospect or a Lauer or Lucchesie to get anyone to take Myers. I seriously doubt we will be trading one bad contract for another. This team does not want to add anymore dead money.

Quote from BoosterSD on October 23, 2019, 12:25 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on October 23, 2019, 12:23 pm

I think that if we want to trade Myers we need to just bite the bullet, pay half of his salary and throw in a couple prospects. We probably need to give up at least one real prospect or a Lauer or Lucchesie to get anyone to take Myers. I seriously doubt we will be trading one bad contract for another. This team does not want to add anymore dead money.

I dont think you can necessarily call Price dead money, but probably not worth his $32M per year at this time. Same as Myers is not worth his $22.5M next season. Just what percentage is each guy worth compared to salary? That is the big question.

Quote from JasonE135 on October 23, 2019, 12:59 pm

What I am saying is that this team does not want to add payroll unless it adds real talent. That trade for Price does not get the Padres any closer to the playoffs but does add $15 million in payroll. They will be spending any available money on free agents this winter. They have been talking about eating half of Myers contract to be able to make trade him. They wouldn't be looking at that if they just wanted to swap his contract for another. They want that $10 million from the other half of his contract back to spend on someone else of Their Choice. Not someone they are forced to take on.

Quote from BoosterSD on October 23, 2019, 1:08 pm

I agree, I was just trying to say that Price is not dead money. But is he worth 50% of his contract? 75%, 90%? Compared to what, Myers at this point in time is worth 40% of his contract. So that could be a determining factor as to the value that Price could bring back.

Really, I dont want to do this trade. It was more for Henry S. bone to trade with BOS. I still think that Myers gets shipped to DET for a bags of balls and Lou Whittaker, plus $30M to DET.

Quote from fenn68 on October 23, 2019, 1:46 pm

Although I doubt Boston trades Price ... if they do they should be able to do a lot better in a return than taking on Myers and some fringe pieces.

Price over the past two seasons has delivered a WAR of 2.4 and 2.3 which if projected forward is maybe $10-12 MM short value-wise for each of his next three seasons at $32MM per year. (assuming he can maintain that level at ages 34-35-36) ... arguably a $20MM per year pitcher.

Myers over the past two seasons has delivered a WAR of 1.6 and 0.5 which if projected forward is maybe $10-12 MM short value-wise for each of his next three seasons at $20MM per year. (assuming he rebounds from 2019) ... arguably a $8MM per year corner OF.

Some would argue that in this era of poor pitching .. a 2.3 WAR pitcher is a far piece more valuable than a 1.0 WAR corner OF than the numbers suggest ... the 1.0 WAR corner OF is more easy to cover.

Would think if Boston puts Price on the market (and they are willing to eat $12MM per year) they would be able to get some top flight prospects from a contender needing pitching ... while saving $20MM. Basically they would have a lot of better options than taking Myers.

The payroll issues dissipates if Martinez opts out ... and if they deal (or non-tender) Bradley who is way overpaid in his last control year.

 

 

Quote from JasonE135 on October 23, 2019, 2:09 pm

Quote from fenn68 on October 23, 2019, 1:46 pm

Although I doubt Boston trades Price ... if they do they should be able to do a lot better in a return than taking on Myers and some fringe pieces.

Price over the past two seasons has delivered a WAR of 2.4 and 2.3 which if projected forward is maybe $10-12 MM short value-wise for each of his next three seasons at $32MM per year. (assuming he can maintain that level at ages 34-35-36) ... arguably a $20MM per year pitcher.

Myers over the past two seasons has delivered a WAR of 1.6 and 0.5 which if projected forward is maybe $10-12 MM short value-wise for each of his next three seasons at $20MM per year. (assuming he rebounds from 2019) ... arguably a $8MM per year corner OF.

Some would argue that in this era of poor pitching .. a 2.3 WAR pitcher is a far piece more valuable than a 1.0 WAR corner OF than the numbers suggest ... the 1.0 WAR corner OF is more easy to cover.

Would think if Boston puts Price on the market (and they are willing to eat $12MM per year) they would be able to get some top flight prospects from a contender needing pitching ... while saving $20MM. Basically they would have a lot of better options than taking Myers.

The payroll issues dissipates if Martinez opts out ... and if they deal (or non-tender) Bradley who is way overpaid in his last control year.

 

 

I just have to say it: didn't Joey Lucchesie have a  WAR of 2.0 this year? By your math, wouldn't that make him worth a fortune? They are both left-handed and have roughly the same velocity at this point. Yes Price has a much longer track record but he should only be expected to regress at this point in his career. Lucchesie can be expected to get better, can be counted on for more durability, is far younger, has far more control and is essentially free as opposed to the $32mil/year owed to Price. So if Price is worth top flight prospects Lucchesie should be worth a kings ransom.  Lucchesie by himself is worth far more than Price at this point. I think the Padres know that and I think that is why any trade for Price is DOA.