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#1221 · December 28, 2019, 7:19 am
Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 28, 2019, 6:39 amQuote from BoosterSD on December 27, 2019, 4:36 pmQuote from Henry Silvestre on December 27, 2019, 3:12 pmNIMMO doesnt move the needle for me.. We need a STUD either at 2B/C or OF (CF or RF) hell Marts doesn't move the neddle either .. I need want ONE or TWO (Preferrably) of Bryant /Betts/ Haniger/Comforto/Benintendi/Whit/Lindor... Marte/Nimmo would be plan B
I would prefer Clevenger to Marte or Nimmo to be honest
Dude, cmon. This is not fantasy baseball. You cant just get bats and not have have defensive poistions, or spend $200M when you are the SD Padres.
Bryant - He is a 3B, we have one that we are paying $30M a year and is better than Bryant. Or LF, Pham is almost as good, and almost a 1/3 of the cost of Bryant.
Betts - $30M for one year, would be the second most stupid thing AJP does behind the Myers contract.
Haniger - we already have him on the roster, its Pham.
Conforto - Yes, this would be a good target, two years of control. But he is going to be over $10M this year and more next via arb.
Benintendi - Good target, BOS is NOT going to trade him though.
Whit - Perfect fit. But dont think KC is not going to trade him either. And would be really costly in prospects.
Lindor - Great player, once again no spot on the field for him, unless you want to piss off the franchise player of SD in Tatis.
Marte - probably better than Benintendi, but needs to be a corner. While the fit is right, the money doesnt work anymore with Myers still here.
Nimmo - would be a good fit for SD. His OPS+ for his career is 27% better than league average, his OBP skills are great, hits LH, and there is nothing wrong with doubles. And his contract and control is perfect for SD.
You should be really excited about getting Nimmo.
Obviously Betts would be (Price + Betts and $30+ mil ) for Myers +++ so payroll ain't going to $200... As far as Bryant (also assuming Myers is moved and we net $10 savings or so).. Bryant has well over 100 games in the OF.. 50 starts in RF and 62 in LF and a ton of other (shifts/double switches) experience tgere..with his chronic back issues ..Kris is better suited for the OF and away from the dirt now.. RF is perfect for his cannon of an arm...
The rest on my list all make little money (except Lindor who would also require a Myers move)
I still think Price + Betts + $30 mil for Myers + Joey + Naylor and specs makes a Ton of sense for BOTH.. Price can easily replace Joey's WAR 1.6 even pitching 15-20 starts a yr.. If he is "load managed" and fresh for the postseason we Gucci... Betts can hit FA and we can get a pick back... But "the Bridge" to TT and/or others (ONA) and that 6-10 WAR he brings will have us in the postseason hunt in 2020
Not sure about your cash flow plan on the Price-Betts idea ... but does not seem to meet Boston’s need to get under the luxury tax in 2020 ... need to drop about $30MM.
-32 Price
-28 Betts
+20 Myers
+30 Cash (assuming a lump)
That only “saves” about $10MM in 2020 but if that $30MM is spread over 3 years ... then the 2020 savings is $30MM in 2020 but to do that the Padres would have to ADD $30MM to their 2020 payroll ... not likely.
Guessing Boston does not even want Myers (and his contract) and could do better than Lucchesi and Naylor by just eating 1/2 of the salaries of Price and Betts and dealing them separately. There should be a decent market for Price as a $16MM SP and even one year of Betts at $14MM to a contender should be really appealing. Certainly more value than Naylor (who has no real trade value) and a #5 SP in Lucchesi. Plus they would be liable for less in 2021-22 ... $16MM (Price) v $30MM (Myers at $20MM plus the $10MM adder).
#1222 · December 28, 2019, 8:04 am
Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 28, 2019, 7:02 amQuote from fenn68 on December 28, 2019, 6:50 amIf the reports are correct ... Padres and Reds are the favorites for Akiyama with the Reds having a multi-year offer on the table.
How to weigh a multi-year deal (dollars ?) for a soon to be 32 year old whose credentials are all in Japan (how do they translate into the ML ... PETCO?). Besides the REDS, other teams are also lurking ... so bidding should run the deal up.
IF the Padres want to start winning in 2020 ... and Margot / Grisham are in question given the ML track record ... Padres wanting a LHH presence and better OBP ... then Akiyama for CF is intriguing but still a risk.
Would they go 3 years for a 32 year old since a 2 year deal is clearly a minimum? Calhoun got $8MM/yr as a corner OF ... that should be more than Akiyama gets. Would a team go 3 years / $15MM? AAV of $5MM is about Profar money.
If the Padres do sign Akiyama ... what does that say about how they think of Grisham / Trammell as the CF of the near term future?
Shogo is getting 3yrs/$12 mil MAX as in $4 mil per.. Reds are at 3/9 Padres at 2/7 (higher AAV) but probably end up 3/10.... He ain't getting 3/30 😆 he isn't a proven commodity at the MLB level...
as far as Grisham and TT and ONA etc.. Future fits.. Shogo is like a bridge player..TT still 1 or 2 yrs away from regular duty if he "earns" it.. Pham in LF/Shogo CF/Grisham RF would be the everyday lineup with others filling inn4th and 5th OF spots..
Hard to really compare but TB signed Tsutsugo to a 2 year / $12MM deal (AAV at $6MM) plus paid a posting fee of about $2.4MM. Tsutsugo is younger and has more power but a defensive question mark.
Should be an interesting debate in Preller’s mind. Option 1 go for 2 years with a higher AAV (and lower total contract) or Option 2 go for 3 years with a lower AAV (and a larger total contract). That 3rd year may be an insurance policy if neither Grisham nor Trammel develop (or end up replacing Pham in LF) ... and none of the other internal options cut it. $8MM/2 or $$10.5MM/3?
#1223 · December 28, 2019, 9:16 am
For such a great farm system we sure do seem to have a lot of holes in it
#1224 · December 28, 2019, 9:48 am
Quote from 3fingersplit on December 28, 2019, 9:16 amFor such a great farm system we sure do seem to have a lot of holes in it
Where are the holes in the Farm exactly?
1B only one
DEeeeeep at C/ Middle IF/OF/Pitching... And have a couple interesting 3B..
#1225 · December 28, 2019, 9:57 am
I'm getting increasingly intrigued by the idea of trading for Clevenger. Clearly would cost an arm or a leg....
Guessing they would ask Pads for: Tatis or Gore +... could even see them asking for both. Tatis no go. Gore think a second, say no, counter: .... what? How far would you guys go?
It would be painful, but I would do this: Lamet, Patino, Campusano, Naylor, lesser prospect < our top 15-20
What we really can't offer is top 10-20 MLB prospect (Gore) in a deal; would have to top LAD's ability to do so if they were willing to include Gavin Lux in a deal. I LOVE Lamet, and this deal could quickly work out in Indians favor... but it does make sense for Pads too: Clevenger definitely > Lamet right now. Offsets $ a little, but Indians save $. Depth of SP to handle the losses...
O.D: Clevenger, G. Richards, Paddack, Davies, Lucchesi/Quantrill... placeholding for Gore.
Still Morejon, Baez, Lawson, Bolanos in AA/AAA & Weathers, Cantillo in A+. Love 1 SP/year becoming FA over next 4 yrs (Richards, Davies, Clevenger, Lucchesi) for smooth succession.... likely top 3 later this yr for 2020-22: Gore, Clevenger, Paddack.
NEED Gore to become & Paddack to remain TOR #1-3 SP, but Clevenger already there, and "only" asking next 7 (eventually 9) SP to nail down the TWO #4-5 spots in rotation... ample competition & ability to do so... some maybe even push for higher.
Probably have to settle for being stuck with Myers in RF (true anyway), getting a "minor" but important OF OBP guy like Akiyama or Nimmo, and living with a 2B platoon... essentially choosing to do this 1 big trade for a later blooming 29 yr old SP in his prime who has improved every year in MLB over a trade for an even later blooming 31 yr old 2B (Merrifield) on a great contract.... as much value as Merrifield would add, think I'd choose Clevenger's age 29-31 years vs Merrifield's 31-33/34 years.
#1226 · December 28, 2019, 9:59 am
Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 28, 2019, 9:48 amQuote from 3fingersplit on December 28, 2019, 9:16 amFor such a great farm system we sure do seem to have a lot of holes in it
Where are the holes in the Farm exactly?
1B only one
DEeeeeep at C/ Middle IF/OF/Pitching... And have a couple interesting 3B..
I agree still a great farm. 1B is glaring hole, though. And I would say Corner OF's weak, but like that they picked Josh Mears in draft to try to "beef it up".
Have to be near MLB best in SP & C quality & depth.
#1227 · December 28, 2019, 10:05 am
Quote from 3fingersplit on December 28, 2019, 9:16 amFor such a great farm system we sure do seem to have a lot of holes in it
Every team has holes in their farm system ... Padres have fewer than most.
Plus with some of the position players ... still down a few levels in the system ... would expect some "excess" in position A be converted to a more needed spot as they head to the ML.
IF Machado and Tatis are locking down the left side of the INF ... Arias may pop up in the OF or 2B. Campusano - Hunt - Driscoll could be the future of catching or one may be the future at 1B. Abrams may arrive as a 2B or CF ... not a SS.
The system is fine ... just can't have everyone ML ready at the same time even in the best of systems.
#1228 · December 28, 2019, 5:21 pm
Quote from Brian Connelly on December 28, 2019, 9:57 amI'm getting increasingly intrigued by the idea of trading for Clevenger.
It would be painful, but I would do this: Lamet, Patino, Campusano, Naylor, lesser prospect < our top 15-20
I think you can get him without more beyond the named. That's quite a haul. I'm not sure if I trust him to outproduce Lamet and Naylor next year though in terms of WAR. He feels like the flavor of the month right now. Kinda like Boyd last July.
#1229 · December 28, 2019, 5:44 pm
Quote from Brian Connelly on December 28, 2019, 9:57 amI'm getting increasingly intrigued by the idea of trading for Clevenger. Clearly would cost an arm or a leg....
Guessing they would ask Pads for: Tatis or Gore +... could even see them asking for both. Tatis no go. Gore think a second, say no, counter: .... what? How far would you guys go?
It would be painful, but I would do this: Lamet, Patino, Campusano, Naylor, lesser prospect < our top 15-20
What we really can't offer is top 10-20 MLB prospect (Gore) in a deal; would have to top LAD's ability to do so if they were willing to include Gavin Lux in a deal. I LOVE Lamet, and this deal could quickly work out in Indians favor... but it does make sense for Pads too: Clevenger definitely > Lamet right now. Offsets $ a little, but Indians save $. Depth of SP to handle the losses...
O.D: Clevenger, G. Richards, Paddack, Davies, Lucchesi/Quantrill... placeholding for Gore.
Still Morejon, Baez, Lawson, Bolanos in AA/AAA & Weathers, Cantillo in A+. Love 1 SP/year becoming FA over next 4 yrs (Richards, Davies, Clevenger, Lucchesi) for smooth succession.... likely top 3 later this yr for 2020-22: Gore, Clevenger, Paddack.
NEED Gore to become & Paddack to remain TOR #1-3 SP, but Clevenger already there, and "only" asking next 7 (eventually 9) SP to nail down the TWO #4-5 spots in rotation... ample competition & ability to do so... some maybe even push for higher.
Probably have to settle for being stuck with Myers in RF (true anyway), getting a "minor" but important OF OBP guy like Akiyama or Nimmo, and living with a 2B platoon... essentially choosing to do this 1 big trade for a later blooming 29 yr old SP in his prime who has improved every year in MLB over a trade for an even later blooming 31 yr old 2B (Merrifield) on a great contract.... as much value as Merrifield would add, think I'd choose Clevenger's age 29-31 years vs Merrifield's 31-33/34 years.
WHOA-- Lamet AND Patino...
I'd go Patino + Morejon + Q + Hunt and Naylor
#1230 · December 28, 2019, 5:55 pm
Thank God you guys aren't making the decisions or deals
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