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Trade ideas
#1181 · December 24, 2019, 6:44 am
I just don't see those guys as obvious improvements over who they would replace in the rotation.
We have a rotation now of Paddack-Lucchesi-Lamet-Richards-Davies with Quantrill as #6.
Both of those guys "might" be better than Davies or Lucchesi....but how much better?
And they may not be.
I just don't see adding a SP unless he is an obvious upgrade even if it means ridding ourselves of Myers and his contract.
There's just as much a chance Myers rebounds an plays "closer" to his value and we benefit from his production or by trading him later than there is a guy like Cueto or Samardzija is "enough" better than we already have to warrant the move.
IMO of course.
Unless the Padres are really concerned about the innings we will get from Lamet/Richards....but if that's the case and we add one more SP,who goes where out of the current 5 man rotation?
Do we roll with a 6 man rotation(like I would prefer) or is one sent to the bullpen or does one get sent down until needed(has options)?
#1182 · December 24, 2019, 7:08 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on December 24, 2019, 6:44 amBoth of those guys "might" be better than Davies or Lucchesi....but how much better?
I just don't see adding a SP unless he is an obvious upgrade even if it means ridding ourselves of Myers and his contract.
Unless the Padres are really concerned about the innings we will get from Lamet/Richards....but if that's the case and we add one more SP,who goes where out of the current 5 man rotation?
Lets say its for Samardzija, last season, he pitched 180 innings, with an ERA of 3.52, 1.108 WHIP, and a 2.9 WAR. So basically close to what Paddack provided for us. We would lose Quantrill in my proposed trade, so I think I would proceed this way for 2020.
Samardzija, Luchessi, and Davies will be allowed to pitch as many innings as the quality of the day will allow them to go, lets say 170-190 innings. Paddack will probably be maxed at 180, just because of history and work load increase from 2019. Season. Either way that is a good 4 SPs for quality and innings. Then, I think I would piggy back Richards and Lamet.
So not quite your 6 man rotation. However if that 4 man rotation is compared to that of the production of last years WAS SP top 4.
WAS - Stras, Scherzer, Corbin, and Sanchez = 750 innings at 3.34 ERA.
SD - Paddack, Samardzija, Luchessi, and Davies = 700 innings at 3.65 ERA. Plus I think Davies performs a little better pitching in Petco, and then I think we could get 190 innings from Richard/Lamet combo, probably in the high 3.s ERA.
Plus, the bonus. Myers, Samardzija, and Richards monies are all off the books at the end of the 2020 season. If Samardzija is really good, can look to resign him at that time.
And this also gives Morejon, Baez, Gore, Patino and others one more year in the MiLs if needed to build up innings and be there to replace the departure of Samardzija and Quantrill.
#1183 · December 24, 2019, 7:27 am
Piggybacking can get complicated unless you stick to a strict say 4 innings each.
Plus you have a starting pitcher who suddenly has to adapt to coming into a game in the middle innings.
If the "opener" is pitching well he may get you into the 6th or 7th...do you have the next guy pitch 2 innings or turn it over to the specialists?
Do you pull him after the 3rd/4th no matter how well he's throwing?
And if you don't use the 2nd half of the piggyback....does he start the next game pushing everyone else back a day or does he sit another 5 days?
I just think you should stick to either a 5 man or a 6 man depending on your personnel and if we add another "quality" SP(like a #2-#3 type) I think we would have the perfect set up for a 6 man.
We don't have a true "Ace" who is also a workhorse.........like a Cole/Strasburg who you would be limiting a few starts from plus we have 2-3 guys whos innings "need" to be limited.
I'm sure it won't happen but it makes more sense to me than piggybacking that can create all kinds of issues regarding too little/too much rest for a couple of your starters.
I guess this will all work itself out once we know the final 26 man plus how everyone throws/stays healthy during St.
BTW...Is it March yet?
#1184 · December 24, 2019, 7:28 am
per Fangraphs 2019 ERA/WAR:
Samardzija (35) ... 3.52 / 1.5 .... 1 year control ... $20MM ... 181 innings
Cueto (34) ... 5.08 / 0.0 (16 innings) ... 2 years ... $44MM (closer to dead money than productive)
====
Lucchesi (26) ... 4.18 / 2.1 ... 4 year control and currently at league minimum ... 164 innings
Quantrill (24) ... 5.16 / 1.3 ... 6 year control ... 103 innings
Myers (29) ... 96 wRC+ / 0.5 ... 3 years / $61MM
====
Don't think Samardzija would provide enough 2020 upgrade from Lucchesi / Quantrill in innings pitched or ERA to justify dealing the prospects.
So the deal boils down to how much the Padres would want to get out from under Myers' contract ... but who plays RF in 2020 ... Naylor? Cordero? ... do they hurt more than Samardzija helps vs. the status quo?
Also think SF would want more in order to give up an in demand ML SP AND take on Myers unfortunate contract. Would they be better off just dealing Samardzija for a prospect?
#1185 · December 24, 2019, 11:39 am
Quote from JasonE135 on December 23, 2019, 8:14 pmOf course they are trying to win. Their earnings depend on them supplying a quality product. The only question is how far can they move up in 1 year? How many games behind the Dodgers were we? We will have to get by them to get to the World Series. I don’t see us doing that this year. Can we get to the playoffs this year? Possibly. We have definitely improved. It will take us a couple more years to truly be able to run with the big dogs, if we are lucky.
I sure hope the Padres don’t have that mentality of “The Dodgers are too good. Let’s just hope the prospects we have are good enough in a couple years to take them on”. I also don’t think it’s catch the Dodgers or bust in 2020. I currently have this Padres roster as the 6th or 7th best team in the NL. 5 teams make the playoffs so I consider to Padres to be damn close to a playoff birth. The Nats won the WS as a wildcard team just last year. In my view, if you are that close to making it into the dance, kick in the door and let the NL know you plan on dancing for the next 8-10 years. It will only benefit the Padres young stars to get that big game experience early in their careers.
#1186 · December 24, 2019, 12:28 pm
Quote from fenn68 on December 24, 2019, 7:28 amper Fangraphs 2019 ERA/WAR:
Samardzija (35) ... 3.52 / 1.5 .... 1 year control ... $20MM ... 181 innings
Cueto (34) ... 5.08 / 0.0 (16 innings) ... 2 years ... $44MM (closer to dead money than productive)
Dont know why there is such a separation in WAR between baseball reference and fangraphs. 1.5 to 2.9 with BR.com.
Still would have been second most effective pitcher in 2019, and threw the most innings.
#1187 · December 24, 2019, 12:37 pm
Quote from fenn68 on December 24, 2019, 7:28 amSo the deal boils down to how much the Padres would want to get out from under Myers' contract ... but who plays RF in 2020 ... Naylor? Cordero? ... do they hurt more than Samardzija helps vs. the status quo?
Also think SF would want more in order to give up an in demand ML SP AND take on Myers unfortunate contract. Would they be better off just dealing Samardzija for a prospect?
From what I have read, they very much want to get rid of Myers contract. And I would have no problem with Grisham in RF for a season, unless Cordero can prove himself healthy. Especially to get rid of Myers contract.
Not to mention, they could be as low $100M salary give or take for 2021, with Richards, Samardzija, Myers, and the Olivera money gone.
#1188 · December 24, 2019, 12:43 pm
Quote from fenn68 on December 24, 2019, 7:28 amAlso think SF would want more in order to give up an in demand ML SP AND take on Myers unfortunate contract. Would they be better off just dealing Samardzija for a prospect?
Not sure, have not seen any reports on Samardzija rumors. But it would be SF using $40M to in essence buy Quantril and the other prospects or two to make the deal happen.
But SF would probably want to do a Cueto/Myers swap more than a Samardzija/Myers. Then it calls in the debate of whether or not you want 3 TJ surgery bounce backs on the same team.
#1189 · December 24, 2019, 12:49 pm
Cueto with the higher upside......also obviously the higher risk.
#1190 · December 24, 2019, 12:50 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on December 24, 2019, 12:49 pmCueto with the higher upside......also obviously the higher risk.
And less prospects to make the deal happen. And I think both are better options than Price from BOS. At least Cuetos arm has already fallen off, and been rebuilt.