Quote from onlypads on December 15, 2019, 4:03 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 15, 2019, 2:33 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on December 15, 2019, 12:52 pm

I think not getting Kluber is going to be a move that we wished SD had made. Even if we didnt move Myers, with Kluber, our payroll would have been about $155M. Plus, in 2021, with the departure of Oliveras, Kinsler, and Richards, the money would have been even in 2021.

IMO big miss AJP!

Considering I doubted they had the space to go over $130MM in 2020 .... where they are now is a strong commitment. Another $15MM just probably is too much for a team that needs a lot of thing to fall right to even contend (.500 more likely)  ... especially if they have aim on Marte or any other offensive upgrade as a priority. Save the “next step” until they are clearly in play for wild card contention and target the greatest need.

As for next year ... big money coming off but they will have quite a few upward pressures with the current players: Arb 3 decision on Pham, Davies, and Hedges ... Arb 2 decisions on Lamet and Margot .... Lucchesi hit Arb 1 ... plus a few others. That alone could add up to a plus $15MM. Then an extension for Yates will add a lot to his AAV given the cost of elite RP. Plus Profar is a FA ... has to be replaced.

Still think the critical path is moving Myers / Hedges’ contracts first.

Agreed.  I dont mind if these divestitures occur next off season.  I believe we are selling a bit low on Hedges if traded this offseason, not unlike the Myers situation.  I imagine one more year of Q and L's development may increase value as well. Wouldn't mind us switching back into developlement / compete with what we have mode.

That being said, I would see nothing wrong with a Marte acquisition of something like Hedges+Kohlway+Hunt/Torrens. I just dont want to give up Mejia or Campusano as the target catcher.

Quote from Randy Manese on December 15, 2019, 8:31 pm

Concur that we could have gotten Kluber or Bumgarner for what the final trade/FA price was.  We could have put a much better package together than what Cleveland got from Texas and the 17 mil a year was not unlike the Kluber contract but probably a couple years too long for us.  This underscores what Preller has been saying about having faith in the current starters and the starters coming up in the system.  He still might pull the trigger on a FA or a trade for a SP, but it has to be on a short term, something under 12 million per year kind of sign.  This also signals to me that he still is after hitters and I wouldn't be surprised to see Marte come over for prospects and, if we trade Hedges and/or Mejia, Wilson Contreras.  Merrifield looks out of the picture without having to get rid of Myers' contract and we still have a lot of money tied up in Kinsler and Profar to add another infielder - I know Merrifield can play the OF but the greatest value would be at 2b.  Right now, best thing to do is see how the market settles down over the end of December and work something out in early January before arbitration time.

Quote from TatisJr on December 15, 2019, 10:08 pm

If reports are true that AJP was trying to convince KC of taking on Myers in a Whit deal, I think the Pirates could be a match. After Pedophile Vazquez’s 5.75 million is voided, the Pirates estimated payroll will be just over 55 million. With the current pitching market going bonkers, I think an Archer trade is likely. That would take their payroll down to 47 million. Reports are out that the Padres have some interest in the Pirates highest paid player for 2020, Starling Marte. He makes 11.5 million next year. Remove his salary from Pitt and your looking at roughly a 35 million dollar payroll. With luxury taxes and revenue sharing MLB will not be happy if Pitt goes with that low of a payroll next year. With a new GM they might be willing to buy prospects. They could actually use some more money on the payroll so absorbing Myers deal might be a way for Cherington to acquire young talent for his rebuild. The Pirates supposedly want a young catcher and the Padres have depth at C. Margot would be a nice cheap young replacement for Marte in CF. Then factor in the numerous young arms in the Padres system. Seems like that would be a match and could allow the Padres to shed 10-12 mill off the books. Maybe that money could go to a Dickerson/ Puig type in FA or they could trade for Whit or a TOR on a reasonable deal.

Quote from 3fingersplit on December 15, 2019, 10:30 pm

I'm already on the fence about keeping my season tickets much less ever going to another Padre game but adding Puig would be the last straw......I would not spend one more dollar on the Padres.

Quote from fenn68 on December 16, 2019, 7:39 am

A lot of names have been debated as potential upgrades to the offense ... no idea of any of them being truly available and at what cost ... did a 3 YEAR comparison to put some performance into the discussion .... using wRC+/OBP:

133/391 ... Nimmo (27) ... 3 years control ... $1.7MM, Arb, Arb .... injury history (risk)

128/351 ... Haniger (30) ... 3 years control ... $3.0MM, Arb, Arb .... injured 2019

115/349 ... Contreras (27) ... 3 years control ... $4.5MM, Arb, Arb ... catcher probably limited shared role

112/348 ... Merrifield (31) ... 4 years control ... $5.0 - 6.750 - 2.750 - 10.5 (option) ... 2B or OF

110/334 ... Marte (31) ... 2 years control ... $11.5 - 12.5 (option)

108/354 ... Benintendi (25) ... 3 years control ... $4.9 - Arb - Arb

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Looking at this ... Marte is NOT looking as appealing given only 2 years control, contract cost, and the prospects needed to acquire. Add that he has been declining defensively and now more suited to a corner OF slot.

On the opposite side ... if willing to accept the injury / recovery risk ... either Nimmo or Haniger could provide the best upgrade to the offense with longer control and lower contract cost.

A plus for Merrifield beyond the great contract for his performance is that he has experience at 2B and OF. Plus seems to remain healthy.

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Note that there is not a really good CF option (defensively) but maybe that is not a major consideration to get a major upgrade to the offense.

Quote from fenn68 on December 16, 2019, 8:16 am

Addendum ... since the price to upgrade is a function of the size of the upgrade ... consider the incumbents' performance:

103/323 ... Myers

85/303 ... Margot

and in very limited play:

92/328 ... Grisham

89/315 ... Naylor

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To clear RF ... moving Myers will cost prospects while getting the replacement will cost prospects (and in Marte's case adding a good chunk to the payroll) ... that is a lot of resource for the level of upgrade ... certainly for RF. Given Marte's vs. Myers' performance very hard to justify Marte in RF.

IF any of the upgrades are acceptable for CF .. and maybe keeping Myers in RF ... upgrading from Margot would have impact and worth some prospect assets. Note: not really ready to RELY on Grisham in 2020 if a .500 season is the minimum target.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 16, 2019, 9:18 am

2 Trades I would domino back to back today

TRADE 1

Pitt (New GM no ties to anything)

Archer + Frazier + Marte to SDP

Myers + Margot + Morejon + Weathers + Q + Torrens + Potts + $21 mil to Pitt

Summary :New GM sees mistake in Archer trade, can let him go now and get a nice rebuild package. Gets a very good defensive CF, who could still develop or at worst be an excellent platoon/Defensive specialist player, Myers as at least a legit MLB OF with still more ?? than reliability, but who would rake in Pitt, Morejon + Weathers about 1-2 yrs away to fit with quick rebuild and Q goes right in as their 1 or 2 SP from day 1.. Torrens turned an excellent season in 19, very Campusano like at a higher level and is ready for MLB duty now and Potts can slot right in to 3B after a couple of months in AAA for Pitt..

San Diego gets upgrades at 3 positions in SP (Archer stuff screams elite, results scream bust, give him a shot as the 5th SP - no pressure and maybe tuns into that 1-2 SP he can be)in any case we absorb the $$ as Pitt takes on Myers in a swap of 2 "underachieving" talents... Marte can slot in at RF leaving Grisham at CF and flamked by 2 speedy Vet COF to ease into his role. Frazier may not have Whit's speed, but he is what I envision Urias (ceiling can be) a solid BA/OBP 2B (this one from the left side a +) with 2.5-3.0 WAR type steady contribution... Payroll swap is almost a wash on this deal- Pads throw in $21 mil Pitts way...Payroll stays flat after trade, yet 3 areas of need are bolstered...

Trade 2

LAA sends Marsh (can be replacement for Marte or Pham in 2 years, or if Grisham struggles can be RF with Marte moving to CF) + Bedrossian RP

SDP sends Hedges + Kinsler + Luchessi + Perdomo--

Summary - Angels get a much needed SP, a C that would lower that SP units ERA by as much as a run, so marginal guys LAA has atm would be more palatable as LAA continues to search for P help + Kinsler helps IF depth and is basically a position/salary dump move by Padres and Perdomo gives LAA a nice swingman

San Diego - doesnt need Joey with Archer in town, trades Hedges + Kinsler freeing up $7 mil or so to do so.. Bedrossian is a nice add to the BP, he has elite stuff and is an up and comer BP arm with some tested results at the MLB level..

Quote from fenn68 on December 16, 2019, 10:06 am

Trade 2 seems pretty reasonable (even without Trade 1).

Lucchesi fills a LAA need at low cost and 4 years  ... SD has Quantrill for the 5th SP

Hedges fills a LAA need for a C while not needing offense (Maddon may see his value as the David Ross clone) ... initially OK with a Mejia / Torrens pairing.

Perdomo fills a LAA need for RP ... Padres are OK in the pen options

Kinsler doesn’t hurt LAA and just in the price to pay for the deal.

===

Marsh is a Top 100 prospect ... possible CF/RF option in 2021 but with limited opportunity coming in LA. Yes, prospect at this level are just hard to get (but the Padres got Trammell) and the LAA look to be going all in. They do upgrade at the ML level 3 spots (SP/C/RP) while only committing about $6MM ... leaving money for more SP upgrades. Padres really don’t lose anything for the 2021 upside and insurance against other prospects leveling off..

For LAA, Marsh is their only real trade chip (not trading Adell) ... so for them if they bite the bullet and deal him ... may wait to see if a better return is out there ....

Like the balance on this deal (but I am not LAA or SD).

Quote from fenn68 on December 16, 2019, 10:44 am

On Trade 1 .... don’t want Archer. In the past 3 years a 4.43 ERA (last year 5.19 ERA), 31, only 2 control years (at $9MM and $11MM at club option). Padres are likely to do better with either Lucchesi or Quantrill (both cheaper with longer control).

Now PITT likely does not want Archer either but probably wants Myers less and his longer contract commitment. Keep in mind that PITT could just not exercise Archer’s 2021 option and get out of the rest of his deal.

If in Preller’s view Archer < Quantrill (both 2020 performance and cost) ... Marte not much of an upgrade from Myers (performance history) ... not sure an “average” Frazier is that much > Profar  justifies moving Q, Morejon, Weathers. Plus increase payroll for 2020-21 and gaining only 2 control years for Archer and Marte and only 3 for Frazier. Padres will not be contending in those two years with those adds.