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Trade Deadline
#71 · July 7, 2023, 6:46 am
If we trade Snell and Hader we are giving up on 23'.
Snell has been the best pitcher in MLB the last 6 weeks and is known as a 2nd half pitcher.
Hader is top 5 Closer in MLB.
Replacing them with Weathers/Suarez would not be indusive to making or winning in the playoffs.
So if we make a trade/s with competing in 23' at all in the realm of possibility I can't see either involved.
Unless it's just Hader and Suarez is deemed healthy and/or we get a guy in return that could pitch the 8th or 9th. this year.
#72 · July 7, 2023, 6:58 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on July 7, 2023, 6:46 amIf we trade Snell and Hader we are giving up on 23'.
Snell has been the best pitcher in MLB the last 6 weeks and is known as a 2nd half pitcher.
Hader is top 5 Closer in MLB.
Replacing them with Weathers/Suarez would not be indusive to making or winning in the playoffs.
So if we make a trade/s with competing in 23' at all in the realm of possibility I can't see either involved.
Unless it's just Hader and Suarez is deemed healthy and/or we get a guy in return that could pitch the 8th or 9th. this year.
I would agree if they moved Snell they bail on ‘23.
Hader (although unlikely) would be a big gamble on Suarez, Wilson, and Cosgrove closing out games but if the return is a bat controlled longer than 2023 and an upgrade over Odor, Carpenter, Dixon, Batten as the DH … the plus may have more benefit in 2023 than the minus.
Some worry that if the Padres get hot enough to still be a potential Wild Card team that if they moved any key in the July surge the team would react poorly and lose its edge.
#73 · July 7, 2023, 7:16 am
Speculation (not rumor) that IF the Padres surge into a legit Wild Card contender while the Cubs continue their recent slide and fall out of contention … the Padres would make a play for CF Bellinger (FA after the season) who is having a very good season. (Also speculation that he would be a target for the Padres over the winter as a FA … would guess that is if they are out of the Ohtani race).
Only 27 but which Bellinger do they get? Have to worry about his down years with LAD before his season with Cubs. He will not be cheap and apparently the NYY are interested given the OF issues with injuries.
#74 · July 7, 2023, 9:16 am
Bellinger is an interesting case. He started out strong, struggled in May and June and has now been on fire for about 2 weeks. The overall line looks like a strong bounce back, but it's been inconsistent. The advanced metrics say it's less of a bounce back and more a result of good luck. There's probably enough belief in his offensive resurgence to make him the most coveted rental bat on the market when paired with his glove in CF. He would probably be an upgrade on Grisham and in some ways could be a perfect fit for the roster. His ability to play 1B and CF at a high level would give us some coverage if Cronenworth and Grisham's struggles continue. I guess it would all come down to whether or not they believe enough in his offensive rebound to pay what will likely be an inflated price.
#75 · July 7, 2023, 12:12 pm
I would avoid Bellinger like the plague. I am not sold enough on the bat bouncing back, and dont think he is an upgrade over Grisham defensively to give up players to get him. Especially at the salary that he is owed for the balance of the season. Signed a $17.5M, and the balance for the year would be almost $6M.
If you are looking for someone that would fit into SD needs, and at a cheaper cost dollar wise and probably prospect wise, I would look at Jeimer Candelario. Switch hitter that can play both 3B and 1B.
IMO, he would allow SD to make the following changes, and better the team all around. We get Candelario and he plays 1B. Crone goes back to 2B, and Kim goes back to SS, and Bogaerts goes to DH. That gets us an improvement defensively at SS, 2B stays the same defensively, might be a small let down at 1B defensively, but an improvement offensively, and DH gets a big boost using Bogaerts instead of Cruz/Carpenter.
#76 · July 7, 2023, 12:35 pm
Not a fan of losing any prospects for 2 month rentals.
Would be different if we were 6 games "over" .500.
Even if we get close to .500 by the deadline we need prospects or players with a minimum of 2 years control.
Now if we could get Lane Thomas from Was. that would be mor elike it but I doubt we would be the high bidder considering they don't need a SS and we can't afford to trade pitchers.
Our bet prospects to trade are Merrill(SS),Salas(untouchable) and a few SP's that we need desperately to keep.
I don't see any takers for Merrill so who we gonna trade?
#77 · July 7, 2023, 12:38 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on July 7, 2023, 12:12 pmI would avoid Bellinger like the plague. I am not sold enough on the bat bouncing back, and dont think he is an upgrade over Grisham defensively to give up players to get him. Especially at the salary that he is owed for the balance of the season. Signed a $17.5M, and the balance for the year would be almost $6M.
If you are looking for someone that would fit into SD needs, and at a cheaper cost dollar wise and probably prospect wise, I would look at Jeimer Candelario. Switch hitter that can play both 3B and 1B.
IMO, he would allow SD to make the following changes, and better the team all around. We get Candelario and he plays 1B. Crone goes back to 2B, and Kim goes back to SS, and Bogaerts goes to DH. That gets us an improvement defensively at SS, 2B stays the same defensively, might be a small let down at 1B defensively, but an improvement offensively, and DH gets a big boost using Bogaerts instead of Cruz/Carpenter.
Candelario would be a good add ... FA after this season and maybe just less than a $2MM add to payroll shouldn't require any major prospect ... not sure of many contenders looking for a 3B/1B as a high priority.
Probably would use him at DH and 3B (if Manny to DH) or 1B (if Cronenworth DH or at 2B with either Kim or Bogaerts at DH). He actually has played very little 1B in his career so would be reluctant (in the midst of a playoff run) giving him that role over a plus defensive 1B in Cronenworth. All the bats stay in the line-up either way.
Although I would prefer Kim at SS over Bogaerts defensively ... don't think Bogaerts is a bad defender. Probably would prefer having him at 1B BUT when the Padres signed him it was made clear by Bogaerts (and his agent) that he is signing as a SS and a BIG risk moving a star on an 11 year / $260MM guaranteed contract with full no trade provisions off SS and not have him "sulk" and perform worse than he has offensively. May not like that attitude but that is a reality of life. Not a great mid-season move in a playoff run.
Might broach the change with Bogaerts this winter ... depending on how 2023 ends ... and potentially with the recognition of the elite defensive play of Kim (if they don't trade him and if they extend him).
#78 · July 7, 2023, 12:41 pm
I just don't see how we get in the position to buy "rental" players in 3 weeks.
#79 · July 7, 2023, 12:55 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on July 7, 2023, 12:35 pmNot a fan of losing any prospects for 2 month rentals.
Would be different if we were 6 games "over" .500.
Even if we get close to .500 by the deadline we need prospects or players with a minimum of 2 years control.
Now if we could get Lane Thomas from Was. that would be mor elike it but I doubt we would be the high bidder considering they don't need a SS and we can't afford to trade pitchers.
Our bet prospects to trade are Merrill(SS),Salas(untouchable) and a few SP's that we need desperately to keep.
I don't see any takers for Merrill so who we gonna trade?
There are "prospects" and there are "prospects" ... no way they trade a real good prospect for a rental BUT there are a lot of "marginal" prospects that could appeal to a team trying to dump a FA to be as save some payroll. Each front office may see the same prospect differently.
Never really know the appeal of an Ornelas, M.Lugo, and the like to the seller of a rental and what the Padres really think of the players ultimate ceiling ... especially if the add is important for a playoff run.
Adding a couple months of a Candelario (for example) and bumping Odor or Batten or Dixon in a playoff run is worth a "marginal" prospect. Of course there will be the debate how "marginal" is the "marginal prospect" and how real are the chances of the team making the playoffs ... in embracing / criticizing a trade.
Thomas would be "pricier" since he has more control ... doing better in 2023 ... still some concern his 2023 is his true level. Not sure why WASH would deal him unless it is for a quality set of prospects.
#80 · July 7, 2023, 1:02 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on July 7, 2023, 12:41 pmI just don't see how we get in the position to buy "rental" players in 3 weeks.
If they are not close enough to buy a rental player ... that must make them far enough out to become sellers?
I really doubt that in 3 weeks the Padres will be clear contenders ... right now too far behind and too many teams ahead (most of which will also win games). So, more a roll the dice long shot (and buy rental for peanuts) or realistically out (and sell).
No matter which side Preller lands ... can't see him stand pat ... after all this is Preller.