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Trade Deadline
#81 · July 9, 2023, 9:37 am
IF the Padres go to sell mode … they will still be looking to contend in 2024 … so not likely dealing any major controllable pieces (not dealing Soto).
Snell, Hader, and Lugo (likely not exercising the player option) should all yield quality prospects in return (AAA/AA types) who can upgrade over the current bench at a minimum in 2024 then beyond. No contender is giving up quality from their 2023 ML roster.
Over the winter the Padres will still be farming the FA market (or trade market) and that will cost in terms of payroll adds (and penalties). So, might the try to clear some additional payroll space by:
1. Adding Carpenter to a trade of maybe Snell instead of taking the 2nd or 3rd piece in the deal … usually a lower level marginal prospect. The 2024 $5.5MM saved could be used to better upgrade in 2024.
2. About every contender wants pitching back end starters / relief pitchers … enter Martinez who still is better than many of the back end pitchers on contenders and would be appealing (not for a big return). Martinez’ Club option will be declined ($32MM/2 years) BUT a good chance the way his season is going the Player Option with be exercised ($8.5MM). IF that is too much in the Padres’ view for Martinez and that money can be use for more impactful add over the winter … might make a deal worthwhile.
#82 · July 14, 2023, 7:12 am
Listen a narrative on Soto on the D.Smith show ... interesting slant on him and his future (my interpretation). The cornerstone element is suggesting that Soto has little interest in integrating into the Padres ... just biding time (and playing to his own agenda) until FA and moving on (for mega money) to a big market that appreciates him as a headliner star and boost his national reputation ... SD has him covered by Machado and Tatis on the team and not a major market. Some sense the Padres are seeing that and are not hot on retaining him (at least some in the front office). I do not expect Soto to be a Padre in 2025.
So does that narrative alter the dialogue on a trade of Soto (either at the deadline if out of playoff contention) or in the winter? Deadline deal should yield better return if out of contention but how do they weigh contending in 2024 (given the FA) and given the $30MM+/- Soto will earn vs. deploying that $30MM +/- on filling other needs plus the player return in a Soto trade. Will in 2024 Soto do more for winning than lengthening the roster with, for example, two $15MM players (or 3 $10MM players, etc) and a player(s) added from a trade of Soto?
Despite his lofty individual stats and his national reputation ... most know I am not high on this value to the team's winning with career having "average" production in high leverage situations ... he just does not seem to every "carry the club" like Machado or Tatis ... not getting $30MM of production in my view.
So trade him ... always depending on the offer ... if out of contention in 2023 or in the winter ... and redeploy his $30MM +/- and benefit the future with added prospects. The Padres will be better in 2024 and beyond if you want sustained contention for Wild Card slots.
#83 · July 15, 2023, 11:38 pm
Can we all now agree that it's time to start trading?????
This season is done, as this roster is presently constructed. Snell has never been hotter, Hader is on form, Soto ......just move on.
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84padres
#84 · July 16, 2023, 3:47 am
Yep. Padres at 44-49 with only 69 games to play and (in the loss column) they are sitting 8 games behind the last Wild Card team and also would have to pass PHIL (7 games), CINN (6 games), and the Cubs (1 game). That creates an improbable scenario of the sub-500 Padres suddenly playing extreme winning baseball while four winning teams ahead of the slump. One team.maybe but four? Plus have seen little to suggest the Padres can sustain a major winning run for the rest of the season.
Need about another 10 days before any trade movement league wide kicks into full gear as other teams make up their minds as buyers and sellers while all want to ensure the largest pool of options to play in.
Probably get a decent return for Snell, Hader, and Lugo as FA to be plus nationally everyone still loves Soto. I probably would focus on landing one headliner prospect in each deal (vs volume) in the upper minors … at least start with that idea and adjust if the buyers do not align. Soto should yield more than one prospect but still that first should be highly rated.
I wonder how Preller is viewing the availability of Wacha and Martinez for a trade? More driven by their contract status after 2023. IF the Padres know they are NOT going to exercise the club option on either ($32MM/2 years) … do they think the players will exercise the player options (about $8MM)? If not they could be a trade chip. If yes but the Padres don’t want them back at $8MM, could be a trade chip. Remember those options get exercised right at the end of the season, so the trade deadline is the only window to clear the issue. Wacha (if healthy) should get a nice prospect and Martinez would be more 2024 contract avoidance first then maybe a lottery pick type return.
Padres have good pitching to sell … pitching is always the #1 target of most buyers.
#85 · July 16, 2023, 1:41 pm
Reflecting on a cautionary tale of a trade deadline deal that did not work for the Padres and reflected mis-evaluation of some of the pieces the Padres moved (especially by many on this site).
August 31, 2020 (yes a late deadline date then) Padres acquired Clevinger, Greg Allen, and a PTNL. Padres were “in the hunt” for the playoffs in that short season and were going all in with an oft injured Clevinger. He pitched 4 games in 2020 before getting injured and out of the playoffs …out 2021 with TJ …ineffective in 2022 (4.33 ERA) in a partial season.
Where most missed is the evaluation of the players dealt:
Josh Naylor … was really getting negative comments for his ability on this site with some just wanting to release him … over reaction without giving him a full chance to develop … he did in Cleveland as the starting 1B … this year 306/347/490 (837) … wouldn’t that be looking good in SD as the 1B or DH?
Cal Quantrill (currently injured and having a down 2023) but in 2022 he had matured into a reliable SP with and ERA in the 3s. Again, a lot here just wanted to dump him even while he was in the minors and not impressing.
Owen Miller (currently with Milwaukee) … just a guy when viewed at the point of the trade … now (in 257 AB) 280/324/401 (725).
Gabe Arias (on Cleveland Bench) … can’t hit but elite fielder and in ML
Austin Hedges (still somehow in the ML with PITT)
Joey Cantillo (in AAA for Cleveland as a SP) 66 innings / 3.23 ERA and still a prospect.
Padres traded 6 players with 5 in the ML and one on the come … Naylor, Quantrill, and Miller playing well as regulars … Arias useful on the bench … Hedges still plugging away … Cantillo coming. That turned out to be a lot of talent for an oft injured Clevinger who is now with the CWS (and injured).
Just a cautionary tale of not over reaching at the trade deadline and making sure of your evaluation of your own talent.
#86 · July 16, 2023, 4:41 pm
I see where Toronto and Houston are interested in Stroman … does that make them players for Snell who is currently out performing Stroman. I still think BALT may be a player and should not rule out BOST. All are contenders but no locks at this point.
#87 · July 16, 2023, 5:18 pm
Soto will have no greater value to this organisation than he will over the next 10 days( or however long until the trade deadline).
Tic toc......tic toc......
#88 · July 16, 2023, 6:02 pm
Sell everything and everyone not nailed down to the ground.
One of the most disappointing seasons that I can remember.
Multiple people need to lose their job. Preller and Melvin, I am looking at you.
Something stinks in San Diego and I can smell it from the east coast.
#89 · July 17, 2023, 8:50 am
Setting up to be a good crop of buyers … especially given the number of teams on the bubble (legitimately) of gaining a Wild Card slot.
AL is setting up with a lot of potential. On the WC bubble are TOR (41 losses), Houston (42 losses), Boston (44 losses), and NYY (44 losses) … NYY may be the most motivated with the unknown on Judge (think Soto). Additonally, winning the AL East may be a motivator for TB (36 losses) and BALT (35 losses) … advantage with a first round bye and home field advantage. Texas (39 losses) also may want to bulk up for that home field advantage vs TB/BALT winner. Plus MINN (46 losses) and CLEV (48 losses) would get in by winning the AL Central.
NL not as competitive with basically the Wild Card between SF (42 losses), MIA (42 losses), AZ (42 losses), PHIL (42 losses) and the NL Central / Wild Card battle with MILW (42 losses) vs CINN (44 losses).
Almost everyone wants pitching and maybe a couple of teams in on a bat (Soto) … some very good farm systems in the mix.
Should see action in the last week of July unless some team jumps the gun with a clear early strike over pay … will be initiated by an aggressive buyer.
#90 · July 17, 2023, 10:13 am
Does anyone seriously think AJ would trade Hader or Snell?
Let alone Soto?
Trading Snell and/or Hader is definitely signaling giving up on this season.
However,the return for Soto could involve help for "this" season and next....maybe a major league ready young corner outfielder and a couple arms....SP and/or BP.
So if we are selling....trade Snell and Hader.
If we are "retooling"....trade Soto.