Quote from MrPadre19 on July 24, 2023, 8:14 pm

Sell

Quote from fenn68 on July 25, 2023, 3:09 am

As sellers the Padres probably have the best SP available (Snell) and the best RP?closer available (Hader) along with one of the better SP options in Lugo. All are “rentals” so every contender could be in play given the short commitment / low cost money-wise and with less prospect capital vs a multi-year player.

As it stands there should be at least 17 buyers plus 3 more are on the bubble with this week pushing them one way or the other. So should be a good pool of buyers. As important the pool of sellers is relatively small and considering they are the worst teams, don’t have a deep set of quality players being put on the market … bodies yes but quality for a playoff run not so much.

Preller needs to be flexible and secure the highest quality prospects available … would hope help for 2024 but if not, that is fine if the prospect has legit ML potential. Don’t care about position … just quality. Since the three are FA to be … in a sense any return is something for nothing while saving payroll / cash that can be used this winter for upgrades.

I don’t see Preller / Siedler punting on 2024 … so expect only the FA to be being dealt and the rest (for the most part) kept in tact.

Quote from BoosterSD on July 25, 2023, 6:33 pm

Lets take part of the 2023 season talk and combine with the trade talk on this thread, and let's say that Soto is the problem. Could Preller get creative, and trade Soto for some younger MiL/ML players, then take some of those guys acquired, along with a couple of pieces from SD MiL players, and swing a trade with LAA for Ohtani.

Could work for three  reasons, one lessens the burden of losing all the players for Ohtani from just SD's system. Two, lessens the monatary burden of trying to carry both Ohtani and Soto this season. And three, lets Ohtani see the great home crowd, and helps entice him to sign in SD in the offseason.

Plus, rids SD of Soto and his possible clubhouse issue, and with adding Ohtani bat to the line up as DH, would make it possible to live with either an acquisition of mid level ML guy in LF, or even Azocar or Dixon in LF.

Quote from fenn68 on July 25, 2023, 7:34 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on July 25, 2023, 6:33 pm

Lets take part of the 2023 season talk and combine with the trade talk on this thread, and let's say that Soto is the problem. Could Preller get creative, and trade Soto for some younger MiL/ML players, then take some of those guys acquired, along with a couple of pieces from SD MiL players, and swing a trade with LAA for Ohtani.

Could work for three  reasons, one lessens the burden of losing all the players for Ohtani from just SD's system. Two, lessens the monatary burden of trying to carry both Ohtani and Soto this season. And three, lets Ohtani see the great home crowd, and helps entice him to sign in SD in the offseason.

Plus, rids SD of Soto and his possible clubhouse issue, and with adding Ohtani bat to the line up as DH, would make it possible to live with either an acquisition of mid level ML guy in LF, or even Azocar or Dixon in LF.

Should note that LAA are closer to a playoff slot than the Padres ... they themselves will try to sign Ohtani ... they will not want to upset their fan base ... not to just get prospects that will not help the win now (or maybe 2024 with Trout and Rendon back). LAA says no ... to probably everyone.

Quote from fenn68 on July 25, 2023, 7:57 pm

Did note a discussion that there may be a very limited trade deadline since basically at this point about 22 teams are "close" to a playoff slot and a lot of so-so teams in the battle so a lot of teams will not be sellers and maybe not motivate to be buyers given no clear cut path to the playoffs. For perspective ... all are closer or in the same position as the Padres.

8 clear sellers: OAK; KC; CWS; DET; COLO; WASH; PITT; and STL as of today.

Who do they have to sell? Who else wants those players? Do the Padres have the trade capital to out bid others?

Even if the Padres want to buy an impact player ... might not be their choice given the limited trade chips vs others ... more likely some marginal add. A good chance a "stand pat" is the only viable route for a lot of teams (including the Padres). However, if the Padres went into a sell mode ... they will offer a couple of the prime trade chips in Snell and Hader plus Lugo in a market were almost everyone lusts for pitching. In a week we will have a clearer picture.

With Siedler's perpetual optimism I think it will be very hard for him to accept going to sell mode ... rather believe the core of this team is good enough to make the run over the last two months and get that playoff slot ... especially with the teams above them showing some serious weaknesses recently.

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 26, 2023, 5:42 am

As the season gets shorter … the odds of making the playoffs can change quickly based on winning / losing streaks but as of now the Fangraphs using computer simulation models may be giving the Padres front office some rationale to at least NOT be sellers.

In the odds to make the wild card Padres are sitting 6th (34%) in the hunt for three Wild Card slots. 3:1 odds is not a long shot. The last in is AZ at only 53% … so not a dominate position.

However the bigger tease is the odds they give the Padres to win the World Series is at 3.2% and that is 2nd among the NL Wild Card contenders … basically the computer has the Padres 6th in the wild card race BUT if they get in they become 2nd among the wild card teams as World Series contenders. So, IF they get in … they are a better option to go all the way.

3:1 to make the playoffs … 30:1 to win the World Series is not that much of a deterrent to keep playing out the season attempting to win. Plus, just making a run as they did in 2022, is still a success in the big picture and should be pursued.

Given the all in commitment by Siedler / Preller … moved the the position of the Padres NOT selling.

Quote from BoosterSD on July 26, 2023, 7:59 am

According to a blog on MLBTR via Jeff Passan from ESPN, SD has already turned away talks about both Snell and Hader, and appear to stand pat/some small adds by the trade deadline.

So it looks as if the FO of SD is not as pessimistic as we are here.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on July 26, 2023, 8:22 am

Or what they were offered for each is far below what they expect to receive even though both will be rentals.  We're in the same position with Snell, Hader and Lugo (and Soto, although we could get a better package for him given his additional year of control) as the Angels are for Ohtani.  It may be a siren song but you have to like Seidler's belief in his players even though we may just end up with comp picks for them in 2024.  If other teams are offering true value, then I'm for selling; if not, go for it because lower level prospects will turn out to be the same crapshoot as the comp picks.

Quote from fenn68 on July 26, 2023, 9:07 am

Quote from Randy Manese on July 26, 2023, 8:22 am

Or what they were offered for each is far below what they expect to receive even though both will be rentals.  We're in the same position with Snell, Hader and Lugo (and Soto, although we could get a better package for him given his additional year of control) as the Angels are for Ohtani.  It may be a siren song but you have to like Seidler's belief in his players even though we may just end up with comp picks for them in 2024.  If other teams are offering true value, then I'm for selling; if not, go for it because lower level prospects will turn out to be the same crapshoot as the comp picks.

Think you are right on target. Padres place a value to the organization in the pursuit of the wild card (since there is a reasonable chance) ... making the wild card ... progressing in the playoffs ... and the outside chance of the World Series and put that up against any offer and how they value that. My guess is a "typical" rental offer of a couple of medium range prospects is just not enough to sway them to trade. However, if in the unlikely scenario someone swoops in and offers a Top 100 blue chip prospect they could flip ... just don't see that in the cards.