Quote from Brian Connelly on July 12, 2020, 10:46 am

Ben, Fenn, etc you guys are hitting on a lot of good points.  Next year is going to be TOUGH!  Potentially, the combination of the financial hit from Covid AND the uncertainty of next CBA negotiations after 2021, crater the mid to low tier FA market to the extent that it makes guys in Arbitration seem relatively over-valued (Davies & Hedges good examples)... where the only course of action for the controlling team is to Non-Tender guys they "normally" wouldn't; because there will be a zero % chance of trading them at their arb contract salary when comparable players are available for less...

... which of course will just exacerbate the issue further.   The Silver lining is what SOME guys may be available for in FA:  Any of G. Richards (health/age), Yates (age) &/or Profar (2B = low "value") might be available this offseason for MUCH less $$ than normal.  I could see any of them back on a 1 year deal:

• Profar even with a good short year could wind up making 1/2 what he made in his 3rd year of arb.  +Maybe a club option...
• Richards I think there's a possibility of a re-sign in conjunction with a trade or non tender of Davies (Richards + Davies 2020: $13.75 MM, </= quality of Richards + "Gore" 2021:  < $13.75 MM).   Maybe an incentive based contract "repeating" similar to 2020's structure.
• Yates is least likely, but long history & desire to win with Pads gives a chance.  But can only see a 1 year deal now; the "narrow" path to slightly exceeding Pomeranz' deal just doesn't look like it exists any more.   Richards or Davies or both would have to be gone.

Quote from fenn68 on July 12, 2020, 12:01 pm

Let's see how Richards, Davies, Lucchesi, and Quantrill (at a minimum) perform in 2020 but can easily visualize both Davies / Richards gone replaced in the pecking order by Gore and Patino ... and that still leaves some ML ready "excess" SP while saving a ton of money.

Personally not sold on either Richards (too long since last pitched effectively) or Davies (who I like ... but maybe not at that price with the alternatives on hand). Given the arc of issues 2020-22, maybe the time to push the top prospects near ML ready (Gore, Patino, Baez, Bolanos, Morejon, Quantrill) in 2021 so the survivors can hit the the ground running in either 2022 or 2023.

Sort of the same with Profar (would need to sign on the cheap) ... has not been all that productive but at least he can provide some versatility. As it stands, he has to stand above Cronenworth, France, and Mateo for 2B in 2021 by a margin worth his signing price plus finding a 2B/SS on next winter's FA market may not be that difficult at a decent price for an upgrade. Think Miller and Arias need the MiL time to arrive in 2022.

Yates????? Given his age, probably asking price, coupled with the Padres having a deep pen (with Pagan set to step in to the closer's role) .... I can see another team outbidding the Padres.

No guess as to where the Padres will be comfortable with a 2021 payroll ... but one report had them borrowing $100MM recently to support current cashflow. Not sure that bodes well for even "bargain" signings. "Natural" payroll drop from current FA/contracts will drop them from about $150MM to $120MM. Add that in the winter ... a chance they will not know whether fans will be in the stands in 2021. Even a reduced capacity cuts into cashflow. Very hard to make a contract add in that situation and if they did ... maybe at the last moment when the cash position is clearer.

Is there a chance that if the other OF play impressively in 2020 (eg Olivares, Cordero, Grisham) with Trammell a coming attraction ... could an expensive Pham (in his last control year) be on the rest of trade or non-tender?

Quote from Randy Manese on July 12, 2020, 1:11 pm

MLB.com doesn't have Yates within its current top 20 FA for 2021, despite his most recent performances.  I guess his age and general volatility of RP are driving their evaluation.   Serious players-off contenders will probably think otherwise so I agree we might be outbid by other teams, especially if Munoz and J Castillo are truly healthy for 2021.

Not too excited about the 2021 FA class since Betts and Realmuto are probably out of our reach.  There will be some room in the budget after shedding Richards, Yates and Profar and probably non-tendering Hedges, Perdomo and Garcia, however, need to start figuring in long-term deals with Tatis and Paddack.  Also, predict Abrams and Hassell will arrive sooner than later due to superior bat to ball skills - arguably the best pure HS hitters in the last two drafts.

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 12, 2020, 1:46 pm

Yeh, Abrams and Hassell have potential to be fast risers for HS draftees. 2021-22 in the minors (2 seasons) may be enough for a 2023 debut (even late 2022). By 2023 Myers is gone .... Pham is gone .... and Grisham / Cordero / Olivares are still unknowns ... so should be a big window for an OF slot. If they keep Abrams in the INF ... 2B looks like it could fit.

Where they end up may be juggled with the development of Arias / Marcano in the INF and Head / Trammell in the OF.

Optimistic 2023 could be a lot of fun with high ceiling "kids".

Quote from WindsorUK on July 12, 2020, 2:25 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on July 12, 2020, 1:11 pm

MLB.com doesn't have Yates within its current top 20 FA for 2021, despite his most recent performances.  I guess his age and general volatility of RP are driving their evaluation.   Serious players-off contenders will probably think otherwise so I agree we might be outbid by other teams, especially if Munoz and J Castillo are truly healthy for 2021.

Not too excited about the 2021 FA class since Betts and Realmuto are probably out of our reach.  There will be some room in the budget after shedding Richards, Yates and Profar and probably non-tendering Hedges, Perdomo and Garcia, however, need to start figuring in long-term deals with Tatis and Paddack.  Also, predict Abrams and Hassell will arrive sooner than later due to superior bat to ball skills - arguably the best pure HS hitters in the last two drafts.

 

I don't know what the league is doing with the trade deadline, but if we really don't have a chance at that point of the year, I'd expect guys like Davies, Richards, Yates, Hedges to have been moved for viable future pieces.

Quote from fenn68 on July 14, 2020, 6:33 pm

Kevin Acee

@sdutKevinAcee

·

51m

Wednesday and Thursday intrasquad games will be streamed on http://padres.com. Both are 6:10 pm starts.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 16, 2020, 7:03 pm

Tommy Pham,Professional hitter.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on July 16, 2020, 10:47 pm

Olivares continues to look good during today's intra-squad game.  France also had some good hacks as did Marcano.  Generally impressed by Quantrill until he tired, but thought the ump was squeezing him early.  Stammen looked good; Gore looked okay, but not dominant.  Pomeranz was bad and Reyes showed his continued lack of control despite a great arm.  Like what I saw from Torrens and Campusano behind the plate - Campy surprised me with his athleticism and Naylor, physically, looks like a different person.

Hill might not seem to be much of an acquisition but Padres will probably get more use out of him than either Cordero or Bolanos this year.  GB, side-arm pitcher gives bullpen yet another look at relatively low cost.  It's a sprint not a marathon.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quote from hoffy51 on July 17, 2020, 3:47 am

I had to leave the room for a while last night and I come back and RH III is standing on first base. Did he walk or did he get a hit? It must be unreal for him to graduate from high school and be playing against major league guys. Wow.