Quote from MrPadre19 on March 8, 2024, 7:03 pm

Quote from WindsorUK on March 8, 2024, 2:37 pm

I still see Tatis at 1, Bogaerts 2, Crone( and his left handed bat in between the 5 right handed bats) at 3

You’re probably right…but I still don’t want our 40+ HR guy hitting leadoff.

My preference:

Kim,Bogaerts,Tatis,Machado,

Quote from fenn68 on March 9, 2024, 11:20 am

With a Thursday off-day and a Friday rainout … then departing for Korea in a week … remaining games in Peoria for the regulars is shrinking and the everyday players need to probably get more game work in. To that end would expect the players ticketed (or in the final mix) for the 26 man getting the bulk of the game time over the next week.

Today’s line-up is highlighted by the “Core 6”:

2B Bogaerts

1B Cronenworth (L)

RF Tatis

DH Machado

SS Kim

C. Campusano

The 7-8-9 go to:

LF Profar (#)

3B Pauley (L)

CF Merrill (L)

The Core 6 get the maximum AB … the other 3 get to showcase and we maybe can assume they are the ones ahead in the roster race? Still may see the other contenders but are they more bench options at this point?

Still don’t rule out one or two adds impacting the bottom trio … but until then …

Quote from fenn68 on March 9, 2024, 1:35 pm

Not a likely move by the Padres … but something to debate.

Giants put J.D. Davis on waivers … 30 year old RHH who is coming off one of his best seasons but realistically is a 100-110 wRC+ hitter (slightly above average). He will be a FA after 2024 and comes with a $6.9MM salary … both sort of fit the Padres limits.

On the negative side he is a BAD fielder as a 3B or a LF … his two primary positions … but could serve as an upgrade as a DH although a RHH.

So, enter the Padres:

1. Could see if he clears waivers … might given the $6.9MM for a DH in this market seems high. If he does see if they can sign him for a much lower price. (Side: not sure the cutoff date but Davis got his $6.9MM via arbitration and as I recall if he is released prior they do not have to pay that).

2. Could claim him on waivers and pay the $6.9MM … that is a lot and alternatively could go a long way for one of the FA who are more versatile.

3. Could claim him on waivers … as other teams claim him … the SF decision on what they would take in a trade. Doubt Davis is that useful (at that price) to warrant getting much of a player in return. Alternative, trade a “better” player to get SF to eat some of the $6.9MM.

At $6.9MM I would pass on Davis (spend on a FA) but might look at him if he clears waivers.

Quote from LynchMob on March 9, 2024, 5:46 pm

March 9: RHPs Logan Gillaspie and Alek Jacob optioned to Minor League camp; RHPs Ryan Bergert and Tommy Nance and LHP Jayvien Sandridge reassigned to Minors

Quote from 3fingersplit on March 9, 2024, 9:43 pm

Quote from fenn68 on March 9, 2024, 1:35 pm

Not a likely move by the Padres … but something to debate.

Giants put J.D. Davis on waivers … 30 year old RHH who is coming off one of his best seasons but realistically is a 100-110 wRC+ hitter (slightly above average). He will be a FA after 2024 and comes with a $6.9MM salary … both sort of fit the Padres limits.

On the negative side he is a BAD fielder as a 3B or a LF … his two primary positions … but could serve as an upgrade as a DH although a RHH.

So, enter the Padres:

1. Could see if he clears waivers … might given the $6.9MM for a DH in this market seems high. If he does see if they can sign him for a much lower price. (Side: not sure the cutoff date but Davis got his $6.9MM via arbitration and as I recall if he is released prior they do not have to pay that).

2. Could claim him on waivers and pay the $6.9MM … that is a lot and alternatively could go a long way for one of the FA who are more versatile.

3. Could claim him on waivers … as other teams claim him … the SF decision on what they would take in a trade. Doubt Davis is that useful (at that price) to warrant getting much of a player in return. Alternative, trade a “better” player to get SF to eat some of the $6.9MM.

At $6.9MM I would pass on Davis (spend on a FA) but might look at him if he clears waivers.

Signing Davis, given his very poor defensive skills, as a DH/1B is a waste of resources (money) in my opinion and he is a right handed version of Matt Carpenter…6.9 million for Davis and 5 million for Carpenter and we all know that didn’t work out. I say let the young guys play and let it rip.

Merrill (2o) , Marsee (22) and Pauley (23) , all are at league minimum salary,all are young , all are left handed hitters which the Padres need to try to balance out the batting order and all of them appear to have that “It” factor. They all would love to make their MLB debut for the team that actually drafted them…the fans would love it because some of our own players with youthful enthusiasm  (Homegrown) actually made it instead of being flipped for any questionable injury prone/history, declining skills rental player that has age working against him and a contract that just isn’t worth it…the juice isn’t worth the squeeze and none of the guys mentioned are going to move the needle.

I’ve said it before and I’ll keep saying it …Let the young guys play…they will be fine and besides…if they fail 75% of the time then it’s already better than last season.

Quote from fenn68 on March 10, 2024, 6:00 am

Projecting 2024 in the ML for Merrill, Pauley, and Marsee by the Padres is quite a challenge. A key is how they view their maturity and ability to handle (and improve from) some rough patches that will naturally happen. If they see the players handling the environment ... then what is projected as the low end of probable performance? Is that better than any alternative? At this point, guessing YES ... and actually can represent an improvement over 2023.

In 2023 the Padres (using wRC+) were ranked #7 in MLB and #3 in the NL ... that from a stat view is clearly playoff quality ... the failure was primarily statistically unlikely with extra inning losses and failure to score late in games ... yet they only missed the playoffs by 2 games.

Sure Soto elevated the stats (although not much in the clutch) but other than Kim the other major bats underperformed their own histories ... most (if not all) should be better in 2024 ... likely offsetting the Soto loss.

However, remember the Padres had to endure: Kohlway (-19 wRC+); Games (25); Choi (28); Nola (38); Sullivan (46); Dixon (57); Rivas (78); Azocar (78); Cruz (85); Odor (86); Carpenter (86) ... that is a lot of very bad offense for a lot of AB. Fair to project Pauley / Marsee being better ... not saying playing to their max potential but just better than the masses. A good case for one to make the roster.

Then Merrill in CF replacing Grisham should not be "worse" and likely better if compared to Grisham's 2023 statistical performance. Grisham had a slash line of 198/315/352 that produced a 91 wRC+ which was 12th out of 14 qualified CF. Then despite the hyped reputation for defense, Grisham finished 11th our of 14 in dWAR. Overall, was 13th of 14 qualified CF. Not a huge threshold for Merrill to pass.

Not unreasonable to project the Padre offense being BETTER than the 2023 offense with Merrill, Pauley, Marsee, and Profar and a more reasonable seasons from Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts, Cronenworth ... BETTER that the #3 offense in the NL.

So, can see the Padres going with Merrill in CF and Pauley at DH ... with the additional benefit of both be LHH in a RHH dominated line-up. Profar starts in LF (where he was a plus in 2022). Marsee may be the odd man out to start ... probably optioned to AAA to play CF and get AB every day for a call up as need if anyone struggles (or gets injured).

Now would be more comfortable if they went this route with adding a RHH LF veteran to allow Profar (#) the freedom to be the super utility guy as needed for LF/DH/1B ... over a 162 game season few will play every day and some will get injured.

 

Quote from WindsorUK on March 10, 2024, 12:50 pm

Marsee definitely back to AAA if Merrill is starting in CF.

Happy to have Pauley starting at 3rd the first month of the season, bat him in front of Profar( 7th)

When Manny is ready, Pauley back down to AAA( unless of course he's tearing the cover off the ball)

Quote from Randy Manese on March 10, 2024, 2:10 pm

Last cut contained RP who were having very good spring training outings but had options remaining.  This could be the trend with many solid arms in the bullpen competing for the final spots on the 13 man roster.  Kolek (R and Rule 5) seems to have put himself in the forefront for one of those valuable 8 spots in the pen.   Suarez (R), Matsui (L), Go (R), Peralta(L) and de Los Santos(R) cover 5 more but all of these are 1 inning types, so let's say hypothetically they comprise 6 of the 8.  For long relief/possible 5th SP (I'm pencilling Brito into 4th SP slot), you have Waldron (R), Vasquez (R), Morejon (L), Avila (R) and Patino (R) - the latter 2 do not have any options remaining.  Rounding out the rest of the RP staff currently on the 40 man but with options are Cosgrove (L), Wilson (R) and Estrada (R) - all 3 are short/leverage guys.

In my opinion, Waldron seems a lock for the 5th spot but could be even more valuable in long relief, since he can go back to back days without too much trouble out of the pen.  That leaves 2 more bullpen spots at least one of which will go to Vasquez, Morejon, Avila or Patino.  My guess is they keep Patino over Avila as well as Morejon and option Vasquez for more work in AAA (maybe AA?)  for the remaining 2 spots.  That surprisingly sends Cosgrove, Wilson (still a little off coming back from injury) and the very impressive Estrada down to the minors to begin the season.  All the guys sent down will get some quality time in the minors but not necessarily many innings against opposing teams - I'd spot the potential SP/long relief guys in venues that are less altitude affected if in EP.  All in all, we have a lot of arms that can contribute to the major league staff - including Iriarte (R), Thorpe (R), Bergert (R) and Krob (L) (SP/long relief) and other RP already sent down (Jacob (R), Reynolds (R) and Sandridge (L)) that could surface in 2024.  There may be so many good arms that a trade wouldn't be surprising to shore up the position player side.

Quote from fenn68 on March 10, 2024, 4:12 pm

I expect they will lock in to Suarez - Matsui (L) - Wilson - Cosgrove (L) - Wilson - Peralta (L) as the main 6 in the pen covering the 7th through 9th. Options or not, they seem to be the best of the arms.

Brito is looking like the #4 SP … so the #5 is a toss up between Waldron and Vasquez with the one who does not get that slot having a minor league option and a candidate for long relief or the minors. Padres may want that long RP and only Avila among the remaining seems to fit that role (and he is out of options) … but not been all the impressive this spring.

If they kept either Waldron, Vasquez or Avila for the #7 RP (long) … only one slot left and a few arms without options … Go (been ineffective but would be hard to release him pre-Korea), Kolek (who I really like), and Patino.

Think that mix puts Avila at risk with the Padres keeping Go (unless sneak him into the IL), send down either Vasquez or Waldron, and have the #8 RP … long man … fall to Kolek (was a SP until mid-2023 and even as a RP was a multi-inning guy. Seattle would take him back if the Padres did not keep him.

That puts Avila and Patino on waivers … both have been there before … and possible both clear waivers and can be re-signed for the minors or given the need for pitching in the ML both could get claimed (maybe a trade chip for a MINOR piece to bolster the future).

Go maybe be the pivot point for the moves … he has not adapted yet to the ML ball and has been ineffective … can’t be optioned … yet he was a star closer in Korea that probably don’t want to give up on after such minimal time playing in ST. Tough call on the way to the Korean games.