Quote from Randy Manese on January 20, 2024, 11:59 am

I'd like to start with the bull pen, which might turn out to be a lot stronger than most people anticipate.  Going to need 8 on the 26 man and several to ride the El Paso/San Antonio express to San Diego.  My list below assumes all RP candidates are healthy and that Brito and Waldron claim the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation.

Potential closers (3):  Suarez, Matsui (L), Go

Other high leverage candidates (3): Wilson, Cosgrove(L), de los Santos

Middle/long relief or 6th starter (2): Vasquez, Avila (possibly interchangeable with Brito and/or Waldron)

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RP Pitchers w/no options: de los Santos, Avila, Groome, Kolek (Rule 5), Patino

RP w/options:  Vasquez, Jacob, Iriarte, Morejon, Reynolds, Otto, Estrada, Gillaspie

Who could surprise:  Jacob, Iriarte (although might try to keep developing him as a SP), Morejon (L) (if arm/shoulder are healthy at last)

Longshots:  Kolek, Patino, Reynolds

There are also a few wildcards in the El Paso and other minor league rosters that could come out of nowhere to contribute to the pen.  Although I'm sure there will be disagreement on my choices, I personally think it is a pretty decent bullpen (if everyone healthy) with an interesting combination of experience and variety of pitches.  I like this bullpen much better than the one that started the 2023 season and which turned out to be a major cause for early season Padres' failure to win.

Quote from fenn68 on January 20, 2024, 1:57 pm

Pretty close on the pen which does have a chance to be better than most expect. I start with this baseline:

Closer(s): Suarez; Matsui (L)

Set-up: De Los Santos; Go; Wilson; Cosgrove (L)

Long: Avila;

1 TBD based on ST / health out of a long list of candidates

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On Vazquez and Brito … I peg them as the #4 and #5 SP until someone else emerges … then maybe one becomes that TBD RP.

Morejon has not really pitched all that much so think they would like to give him more MiL time before putting him in a critical ML role.

Since don’t see any clear candidate for that 13th arm … to start the season may want to max the options by sending the players with MiL options to the minors (can call them back as needed) and potentially retain an out of option guy … just to get a better read on them (Kolek or Patino). On the other hand, early in the season and with a chopped up ST … might keep Waldron as another long man, 6th starter if not expecting the #1-5 SP to go every 5th game or deep into games yet.

That 13th slot should be wide open. Maybe even a waiver claim near the end of ST (or minor trade).

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 25, 2024, 2:04 pm

I think everyone knows how I feel about our AAA being in El Paso but thinking about Morejon in particular I sure hope they don't put him there.

Besides staying healthy he needs some success......."somewhere"....."anywhere".

Put him in AA or even High A for a couple months...let him start his progression again....just my opinion.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 25, 2024, 2:13 pm

Padres are going to have a difficult set of decisions on where to place the SP prospects if they want to stretch them out as SP for late in 2024 or 2025 while pitting them against challenging opposition. Too many legit prospect roughly at the same level … too good for A+ and too crowded in AA while trying to avoid the pit of El Paso.

Will they make the hard call on s0me and move them to the pen? Do they think some have the stuff / character to handle EP?

Quote from Randy Manese on January 25, 2024, 6:55 pm

If you're talking about potential SPs on the major league roster, I'm not sure I see a problem of stretching anybody out.  If we assume Darvish, Musgrove and King are at the top of the rotation then the last two slots could be filled by Brito, Waldron, Vasquez or Avila with the two that show the best as #4 & #5.  All these four, however, have both started and thrown multiple innings when in the bullpen, so they should be able to handle either role and could even piggyback in unusual circumstances.  I expect all four of them to make the 13 man pitching staff.   These roles should all be locked in during ST.

The only other candidates I can see for SP or long relief slots are Morejon and Iriarte.  Morejon has already pitched in EP and really has no upward development anticipated other than to remain healthy - more than likely he will not have the stamina to ever be a SP.  Iriarte likely will be sent back to SA and still developed as a SP role if he doesn't make the 26-man.  At SA, we have 5 other very capable guys, all of whom could join Iriarte in the rotation and pitching one game of the 6 games series that the minor leagues employ before taking Monday off.  I believe Snelling, Thorpe, Iriarte, Mazur, Krob and Bergert all can get stretched out while in SA and there is a good chance that a couple of these guys, including Iriarte, may make it to the majors sooner than later in the year - my guess is Iriarte and Bergert - because of injury, regression or trade of one or more of the projected RP staff (Suarez, Matsui, Go, de Los Santos, Cosgrove, Wilson + the two who didn't make it as SPs).   Battle for the bullpen, more so than for SP, could be fierce and surprising!

Other than Morejon, don't expect any of the SA six to be assigned to EP.  Likely a direct promotion to San Diego late in 2024 if totally dominating at the AA level for at least 2/3's of the season.  All six need to refine one or more pitches or improve command/control to be in the starting rotation on a regular basis and I don't think the Padres want to bring any of them up, only to send them down to EP (particularly, Snelling, Thorpe and Lesko, when he is promoted to SA).   Let them grow, develop and gain the necessary confidence to eventually be the core of our pitching staff.

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 25, 2024, 7:05 pm

Actually referring to the prospects who are ticketed for the minors trying to get ready for a ML call-up. Basically too many for a starting rotation in SA.

Quote from WindsorUK on January 25, 2024, 7:31 pm

Can someone explain to me again why AAA is in El Paso?

Terribly unconducive(sp?) to anything resembling rewarding for pitchers or hitters?

Why not move closer to 'Diego? More coastal?

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 25, 2024, 8:25 pm

Quote from WindsorUK on January 25, 2024, 7:31 pm

Can someone explain to me again why AAA is in El Paso?

Terribly unconducive(sp?) to anything resembling rewarding for pitchers or hitters?

Why not move closer to 'Diego? More coastal?

No…no one knows.

Apparently we are the only ones who think it’s an issue.

Lake Elsinore,or even Ft Wayne should be our AAA and EP AA.

Pitchers one step away should be pitching in similar conditions as the majors IMO.

Let the hitters rake in AA.

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 26, 2024, 3:17 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 25, 2024, 8:25 pm

Quote from WindsorUK on January 25, 2024, 7:31 pm

Can someone explain to me again why AAA is in El Paso?

Terribly unconducive(sp?) to anything resembling rewarding for pitchers or hitters?

Why not move closer to 'Diego? More coastal?

No…no one knows.

Apparently we are the only ones who think it’s an issue.

Lake Elsinore,or even Ft Wayne should be our AAA and EP AA.

Pitchers one step away should be pitching in similar conditions as the majors IMO.

Let the hitters rake in AA.

 

Actually pretty complicated … AAA has a lot of standards for AAA franchises including those for ballparks … Padres don’t own the minor league team so the franchise owner wants the best environment to make money … other cities have been locked down by other clubs so options are limited. Not sure on the new PDA rules … think longer commitments … so pushing a team out of their PDA while getting out of the Padres’ PDA may not even be feasible.

Although Moorad was a bad owner … he did have a decent plan to buy the AAA franchise and build a AAA standard ballpark in Escondido … drawing attendance from North County and using the ballpark for a lot of other events (something North County lacks at that capacity). As I recall, that got dropped as the State pulled back on redevelopment funds for the city coupled with some financial limits by the Padres. Could have worked 30 miles from PETCO even if attendance would be a challenge, that had a chance to be offset by other events at the ballpark and some synergies with team management with the Padres front office.