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Shohei Ohtani
#11 · July 13, 2023, 8:13 am
Quote from BoosterSD on July 13, 2023, 7:42 amQuote from Stergios on July 13, 2023, 7:21 amQuote from BoosterSD on July 12, 2023, 3:21 pm
But why would the Cards want to unload Contreras after signing him to a multi-year deal as a FA? Have they become disillusioned with him after three months?
Yes, they have already moved him off C, and I believe they have a very good C prospect close to the ML if I remember correctly. They have a ton of OFers as well, so the only spot for him at this time is DH.
He has 4 more years of control at $18MM/yr … top money for an elite catcher but not that good if a non elite DH. STL made a mistake … apparently they know it already. Never had a good rep as a catcher. Have they moved Contreras or just splitting time behind the plate with Knizner (not that impressive journeyman back-up) since not going to catch every game and want Contreras’ bat in the line-up.
As I suggest on Goldschmidt … not pressured on money .. would seek quality prospects in any deal.
#12 · July 13, 2023, 9:25 am
Quote from BoosterSD on July 12, 2023, 3:21 pmWhen it comes to Ohtani, and $60M± per year in payroll, would the following not be a better option of $60M.
Not saying this could happen, but what if perhaps Preller could convince STL to part with Goldschmidt by taking Contreras off their hands. And then look at resigning Snell.
Goldschmidt for $26M, Snell for $20M per season, and Contreras for $17.5M is a total of $63.5M. Depending on the prospect we sent back, or a money offset of some, could be less. That is 3 players for the cost of Ohtani, who does occupy two spots SP and DH. But this would fill C, a true 1B, and SP.
This is definitely another way to go....."but" what would you have have to give up to Stl?
The other is to lock up Soto with that money...and you'd still have enough for another SP.
#13 · July 13, 2023, 10:02 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on July 13, 2023, 9:25 amQuote from BoosterSD on July 12, 2023, 3:21 pmWhen it comes to Ohtani, and $60M± per year in payroll, would the following not be a better option of $60M.
Not saying this could happen, but what if perhaps Preller could convince STL to part with Goldschmidt by taking Contreras off their hands. And then look at resigning Snell.
Goldschmidt for $26M, Snell for $20M per season, and Contreras for $17.5M is a total of $63.5M. Depending on the prospect we sent back, or a money offset of some, could be less. That is 3 players for the cost of Ohtani, who does occupy two spots SP and DH. But this would fill C, a true 1B, and SP.
This is definitely another way to go....."but" what would you have have to give up to Stl?
The other is to lock up Soto with that money...and you'd still have enough for another SP.
A lot of ways to go (if they want to actually spend an incremental $60MM ... or incremental any amount) but there is a bit of chicken and egg dilemma.
Ohtani is a FA this winter and does he hang up everything until he signs ... not only just him but others who would like to swoop in on the tail of whatever he gets (rising tide raises all boats theory).
From the Padres perspective Soto is a Boras client who has turned down $440MM/15 years with WASH and near FA ... not going to sign until the winter after next season ... in the national perspective he is still super star ... can the Padres sign him then? Do they even want to sign him? This winter Snell is a Boras client and we know Boras will hold out on him and push for the highest payday which if Snell continues at near this production level will be a long BIG contract from someone.
With big long term money in Tatis, Machado, Bogaerts, Cronenworth, Darvish, and Musgrove ... can the Padres go big / long-term on another player let alone two? Actually the potential "incremental" on Soto is not bad ... currently built in at $23MM and should be $30MM in 2024 ... so an added FA bump would not be that great with the issue being length of the deal. Snell is a bit more of a jump given he is at $16MM (but only $10MM AAV) and will pull in the mid-20s but again length of deal become the issue. Replacing either on the FA market (with similar talent) will also be costly if you can find it and sign them (no guarantee there).
So a dilemma for 2024 if you want to win with the returning core ... hold on Soto (only a $7MM increase +/-) and focus on re-signing Snell or a replacement (high level like Stroman) at $20-25MM. That leaves potentially room to fill in the blanks at DH/1B and another SP. Then for 2025 a different worry about Soto's future but time to figure that out in 2024 if they win or if the lose.
I guess if 2024 winning is the goal ... need to focus initially on what you can control and that is keeping Soto (and probably Wacha if his shoulder holds) ... and be flexible (but take action and not wait on one target) in the FA/trade window next winter lest you don't hit on the target and miss everyone.
#14 · July 13, 2023, 10:03 am
As I said, I dont think that we could get Goldschmidt, for many reasons. But man he would look real good in SD brown, and fix the issue at 1B, which is a lack of batting production.
Crone is a better fit at 2B, because of his bat. But the whole Bogaerts thing makes this an issue with Crones bat at 1B.
#15 · July 13, 2023, 10:13 am
Quote from BoosterSD on July 13, 2023, 10:03 amAs I said, I dont think that we could get Goldschmidt, for many reasons. But man he would look real good in SD brown, and fix the issue at 1B, which is a lack of batting production.
Crone is a better fit at 2B, because of his bat. But the whole Bogaerts thing makes this an issue with Crones bat at 1B.
Well on many levels the Bogaert signing ... money, length of the contract, Kim a cheaper better defensive SS, having to bump Cronenworth to 1B (note even this season Cronenworth is a better hitter when playing 2B but small sample size), and Bogaerts stance that he signed here to be a SS ... makes me scratch my head as to that being the best use of their money.
However, Bogaerts is here and not going away and neither is Cronenworth ... both eating a lot of money and playing time ... combined makes it a bit harder to go all in on Ohtani.
#16 · July 13, 2023, 10:23 am
I don't think that the Cardinals are likely to move Goldschmidt or Contreras. I think they'll just look to clear up their position player situation a little bit while picking up some pitching. They're going to try to retool for 2024 not blow it up. That's not the "Cardinal Way". That sort of idea is what I was getting at by saying we might be better off spreading the money around though.
I think Snell probably ends up looking for something like what Rodon signed for. That would be around 25m. The going rate for a good backend starter seemed to settle in around 10-13m. You could probably get somebody like Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Teoscar Hernandez or Kim's buddy Jung-Hoo Lee in the 10-15m range. At roughly 50m does that help the team more than Ohtani? At 60 you could replace that backend starter with a front line one or add even more pieces. On a team that has been burned by having so much tied up in underperforming top talents and a lack of depth it seems like if they were really going to spend that type of money it might be better to spread it around.
#17 · July 13, 2023, 10:51 am
As it stands, all 8 position players return ... so from an offensive standpoint (have to assume the BIG 5 return to their norms) really need only to boost one net quality bat with some strong bench pieces. Not "stars" just ML quality and they should be available at a reasonable price. Since would expect the Padres want to use the DH as a bit rotational to get the "stars" off their feet during the season ... adding a DH only type probably does not fit.
Pivot to SP where the real 2024 issue will be. Other than Musgrove and Darvish ... decisions / issues with everyone else that will require money to address.
- Musgrove is locked in and solid
- Darvish is locked in BUT looking at this recent performance not pitching as a consistent top of the rotation arm ... more a #3-5
- Snell is a FA (agree that $25MM on a long term deal will be the demand ... and not sure on his agenda is re-signing with the Padres)
- Wacha is on a Club Option ($32MM/2 years) ... is he worth it with his reoccurring shoulder injury (had had this issue for a few years) ... if declined likely to decline the player option at only $8MM+/-
- Lugo on a player option and based on his performance so far will be declined
- The pretenders to a starting role: Morejon; Honeywell; Weathers; Groome; Knehr; Avila have shown nothing to suggest they can even be a good #4-5.
- Martinez basically has the same deal as Wacha but has been hot and cold in the pen so not likely the Padres take the club option and a toss-up whether Martinez would take the player option
So, are they really looking at Musgrove being the only solid SP option looking ahead to 2024? Can they be comfortable with even rolling out a 5 man rotation. If they are going to spend (or trade) ... SP has to be the #1 focus (and probably #2 focus).
So, some moderate spending to support the bench / offense but the major money on SP seems the only strategic way to go.
#18 · July 13, 2023, 12:04 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on July 13, 2023, 10:03 amAs I said, I dont think that we could get Goldschmidt, for many reasons. But man he would look real good in SD brown, and fix the issue at 1B, which is a lack of batting production.
Crone is a better fit at 2B, because of his bat. But the whole Bogaerts thing makes this an issue with Crones bat at 1B.
After signing Xander this past offseason, it's hard not to wonder why we didn't just go hard after Freddie Freeman the season before. Blocking him from becoming a Dodger AND nabbing one of the best hitters in the game at a relatively "safe" position, long term? I know we had Hosmer in the mix at the time, but having too many SS didn't stop us from signing Xander...
I dunno. I appreciate all of the moves and the excitement they generate, but it's tough to tell sometimes what the plan truly is (or whether there really even is one). As fenn said, the Croney/Darvish signings might be explained more by Siedler's proclivity towards stability than Preller's vision. That, in turn, sort of raises the question of who is really at the wheel at times.
#19 · July 13, 2023, 12:22 pm
Quote from sportwarrior on July 13, 2023, 12:04 pmQuote from BoosterSD on July 13, 2023, 10:03 amAs I said, I dont think that we could get Goldschmidt, for many reasons. But man he would look real good in SD brown, and fix the issue at 1B, which is a lack of batting production.
Crone is a better fit at 2B, because of his bat. But the whole Bogaerts thing makes this an issue with Crones bat at 1B.
After signing Xander this past offseason, it's hard not to wonder why we didn't just go hard after Freddie Freeman the season before. Blocking him from becoming a Dodger AND nabbing one of the best hitters in the game at a relatively "safe" position, long term? I know we had Hosmer in the mix at the time, but having too many SS didn't stop us from signing Xander...
I dunno. I appreciate all of the moves and the excitement they generate, but it's tough to tell sometimes what the plan truly is (or whether there really even is one). As fenn said, the Croney/Darvish signings might be explained more by Siedler's proclivity towards stability than Preller's vision. That, in turn, sort of raises the question of who is really at the wheel at times.
Not a question in my mind when it comes to big money contracts ... it is Siedler making the call based on Preller recommendations and Siedler brings his opinions / bias / decision making into the process. Preller may be convincing in his rationale for his recommendations but he is not making the call on his own. Plus never doubt Siedler being the owner with strong views on how to build the team.
My guess Siedler sets the vision ... money available, desire for stability, desire for consistent winning, "type" of player he wants to keep long term ... then Preller seeks options that fill that vision ... then they "debate" before a decision. Sort of a joint effort once each visions are aligned. Likely Preller is not going to pursue options that he knows Siedler will not support.
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Freeman was a odd (and somewhat unfortunate situation) where both Freeman and the Braves pretty much wanted to agree but his agent "overplayed" the negotiation and like a flash the Braves traded for Olsen. LAD were ready to jump in (his hometown I think) and quickly inked him.
Not sure the Padres or any other team were actively focusing on Freeman since little chance he would be available ... instead focused on other options. The no Braves ... yes LAD happened pretty quickly.
#20 · July 13, 2023, 12:26 pm
Quote from fenn68 on July 13, 2023, 12:22 pm
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Freeman was a odd (and somewhat unfortunate situation) where both Freeman and the Braves pretty much wanted to agree but his agent "overplayed" the negotiation and like a flash the Braves traded for Olsen. LAD were ready to jump in (his hometown I think) and quickly inked him.
Not sure the Padres or any other team were actively focusing on Freeman since little chance he would be available ... instead focused on other options. The no Braves ... yes LAD happened pretty quickly.
Right, but so did the no from Turner, yes to Xander pivot. I get what you're saying, but it feels as though Siedler has been ready to deploy cash fairly quickly upon positive recommendations from his team... I can't imagine it would have taken more than a "we need him" from Preller to start the ball rolling quickly. Hell, the Dodgers did it.