Quote from MrPadre19 on July 11, 2023, 1:49 pm

Ohtani is another case of "sign him to keep him away from the dodgers and Giants."

I am seriously freaked out about the possibility of signing a guy to a contract in the 10/$600 mil range but even if he only plays at this level for 4-5 more seasons I don't really want these other two teams to get him either.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 11, 2023, 2:07 pm

Ohtani news / rumors will dominate the trade deadline and off season ... and justifiably.

I am going with Ohtani not being traded ... LAA likely will want to be in on signing him long term and dealing him would not help the effort ... also, would be problem for most LAA fans who just want to see him play and dealing him would hurt fan loyalty. Would add that LAA are only 5 games out of the Wild Card (Padres are 6 games out).

Also, not convinced that any team would offer enough to overcome the above reasons not to trade him ... yes he is great but getting him for only two months and have to find a team that thinks they really need him and have the premium assets ... could be a very small shot group.

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The off season signing will be fascinating ... some estimates are now $600MM / 10 years ... no matter how good not going to be a lot of bidders (but it only takes one).

If you believe the rumors that the Padres will go all in, I would give them a chance.

At one level he has suggested that he wants to play for a consistent winner ... and although not selling that in 2023 the Padres can lean on 2022 and the fact they have a core of "stars" signed long term. Add that Ohtani is somewhat of a unique individual who is 100% baseball (hardly any life outside) and want to be "comfortable" in whatever environment he ends up ... LAA is a pretty low key environment but SD may be even more low key and that could appeal. LAD/SF have the money if they want to play at that level (that is not a slam dunk) but both environments are more stressful. Anything on the East Coast would seem exactly what does not appeal to Ohtani ... be it critical media and hyped up fans.

Assuming LAA - SD - LAD will put in competitive bids ... that is the order I see it ending up even if other teams put more on the table. I do suspect that the way Siedler has been running the ship ... not sure Moreno would go that high and LAD (the investment group behind them) has not been push the big salaries since the took over (unless saving for Ohtani). So, Padres win?

Quote from fenn68 on July 11, 2023, 2:08 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 11, 2023, 1:49 pm

Ohtani is another case of "sign him to keep him away from the dodgers and Giants."

I am seriously freaked out about the possibility of signing a guy to a contract in the 10/$600 mil range but even if he only plays at this level for 4-5 more seasons I don't really want these other two teams to get him either.

 

 

In Ohtani's case ... not going that high unless the team really really wants the player ... no for a "defensive move" ... he no Randy Myers.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 12, 2023, 12:13 pm

I'll add a question for you guys. At what price point would you rather spread the money around than commit it all to Ohtani? It's probably not fair to look at it as a true dollar to dollar comparison given how much money he generates. I've seen estimates that put it at 20m a year for the Angels. I tend to think that would be lower with us given our already strong attendance numbers and the presence of Darvish. I'm sure it would still be significant though. Without overthinking that too much if he really ends up at 50-60m I might lean towards spreading it around. You could probably get a top starter, another solid backend starter, a quality bat and have them off the books as Ohtani's contract is moving into it's second half.

Quote from fenn68 on July 12, 2023, 1:01 pm

Frankly … given the expected roster going into 2024 … probably would not drop $60MM on Ohtani and probably not be able to fill in all the blanks surrounding him … remember LAA is out of the playoffs with Ohtani while having some name support … just not enough.

No idea on Siedler’s limit on payroll (and as it stands BIG CBT penalty on the overage) but can see it not being a factor. Ohtani’s big plus to revenue is internationally and not sure how the Padres may want to leverage that appeal into revenue for the team (but not likely enough to be a full offset). One other issue is the “local” broadcast plan (revenue) post Bally Sports. I guess if the Padres have creative plans for TV and streaming pay options … with Ohtani’s draw within the US and internationally … could be a real source of mega revenue. Basically Ohtani would move SD from a local SD market to an international market with a huge increase revenue from access fees and Padres souvenirs sold. So bottom line, the economic / business model may have a lot to do with the decision.

On the field he would be a major plus but surrounded by still major needs … add filling those needs with higher cost quality would just make the money situation more tenuous… plus have to both find (and sign) those pieces in a not too deep FA market. Can read that the other way, don’t give the money to Ohtani and there still may be a problem identifying and signing impact players and will have to rely on the current returning roster for the most part.

A lot of “unknowns” that will not be resolved (probably have to be deferred) pending the Ohtani decision and that may be an issue as other teams pursue players while other teams are waiting on the Ohtani decision. I guess if the Padres thought this roster would  get them to the World Series they would continue with that as the baseline thinking and sign the multiple upgrade players and pass on Ohtani.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on July 12, 2023, 3:21 pm

When it comes to Ohtani, and $60M± per year in payroll, would the following not be a better option of $60M.

Not saying this could happen, but what if perhaps Preller could convince STL to part with Goldschmidt by taking Contreras off their hands. And then look at resigning Snell.

Goldschmidt for $26M, Snell for $20M per season, and Contreras for $17.5M is a total of $63.5M. Depending on the prospect we sent back, or a money offset of some, could be less. That is 3 players for the cost of Ohtani, who does occupy two spots SP and DH. But this would fill C, a true 1B, and SP.

Quote from Stergios on July 13, 2023, 7:21 am

Quote from BoosterSD on July 12, 2023, 3:21 pm

When it comes to Ohtani, and $60M± per year in payroll, would the following not be a better option of $60M.

Not saying this could happen, but what if perhaps Preller could convince STL to part with Goldschmidt by taking Contreras off their hands. And then look at resigning Snell.

Goldschmidt for $26M, Snell for $20M per season, and Contreras for $17.5M is a total of $63.5M. Depending on the prospect we sent back, or a money offset of some, could be less. That is 3 players for the cost of Ohtani, who does occupy two spots SP and DH. But this would fill C, a true 1B, and SP.

But why would the Cards want to unload Contreras after signing him to a multi-year deal as a FA?  Have they become disillusioned with him after three months?

Quote from BoosterSD on July 13, 2023, 7:42 am

Quote from Stergios on July 13, 2023, 7:21 am

Quote from BoosterSD on July 12, 2023, 3:21 pm

 

But why would the Cards want to unload Contreras after signing him to a multi-year deal as a FA?  Have they become disillusioned with him after three months?

Yes, they have already moved him off C, and I believe they have a very good C prospect close to the ML if I remember correctly. They have a ton of OFers as well, so the only spot for him at this time is DH.

Quote from fenn68 on July 13, 2023, 7:55 am

Quote from BoosterSD on July 12, 2023, 3:21 pm

When it comes to Ohtani, and $60M± per year in payroll, would the following not be a better option of $60M.

Not saying this could happen, but what if perhaps Preller could convince STL to part with Goldschmidt by taking Contreras off their hands. And then look at resigning Snell.

Goldschmidt for $26M, Snell for $20M per season, and Contreras for $17.5M is a total of $63.5M. Depending on the prospect we sent back, or a money offset of some, could be less. That is 3 players for the cost of Ohtani, who does occupy two spots SP and DH. But this would fill C, a true 1B, and SP.

Since I don’t feel comfortable with spending an additional $60MM on Ohtani (or any combo of players) … a non-choice for me even if STL would want to make a deal.

Forget Contreras … over priced contract in my mind and given the rest of the offense don’t need to spend at that level to add an offensive catcher when the money (if used) is better applied to other needs (pitching or LF post-Soto). Would consider resigning Snell since SP near term will be a big issue BUT with Boras the agent expect a longer term deal nearer $25MM if Snell is anywhere his recent performance for the rest of the season (but that is more logically were the money would be targeted).

As for Goldschmidt … he is only under contract for 2024 (but at a large $26MM) so STL could make him available although money is not the biggest issue (getting more talent is). Note they don’t have a real high payroll and FA will drop that by about $50MM this winter. So, probably will be looking for top prospects (and maybe even eat some of the contract). Padres without any real quality prospects in AA/AAA … hard seeing a match even if the Padres wanted to dump money on him to win in 2024.