Quote from fenn68 on August 25, 2023, 3:05 am

Probably does not change the “serious” contenders given his contract will still be a record … just incredibly more complicated.

His value purely as a DH … with this marketing value … with the chance he returns as a pitcher at some point in a long contact will still be in demand by a limited number of teams with that kind of money to spend.

Probably a multi-layer deal in the end:

1. Base: his value as a DH along with marketing could be in the $40-50MM AAV / 10+ year range … something more than Aaron Judge got. Ohtani is only 29ish.

2. Incentive increase on games started potentially on a sliding scale and with the potential of  a threshold locking in a permanent increase.

3. Incentives for MVP and Cy Young voting

4. Opt out clauses

Would guess a $500MM base with the potential to near $700MM … not many teams will play in that range.

Have not heard any new rumors on the Padres’ serious interest … last ones indicated they would have Ohtani as their winter priority … probably still will and we have seen the Padres be creative in their contracts.

The Padres’ issue will be the speed for Ohtani (his agent) to agree to any deal … if that drags considering the need to address big money SP in a limited market … after initial discussions with Ohtani’s agent and sizing their objective … Padres may make a final offer and if rejected quickly start targeting other FA to complete the roster.

Tough call for every team given the money in play and their need build full rosters to win … can’t really lose on Ohtani AND fail to sign others to boost rosters as those players sign elsewhere. Pushing that will be the agents for other high profile FA who may want to wait until Ohtani signs for record money (trying to boost their leverage) or possibly some teams will come in hot and pay premium plus for those other FA so they can get them off the board early before the losers in the Ohtani race pivot their money to others.

30 teams … Ohtani and a lot of FA … everyone will have a different strategy … should make for an interesting FA season … and potentially somehow impact the winter trade market.

Quote from fenn68 on August 26, 2023, 2:01 pm

Still think the Padres will go all in on Ohtani this winter with a “creative” contract based on his hitting as the baseline and an incentive structure IF he can pitch again. Should note that at 29 and if it is TJ it is his second which makes an effective return more difficult.

So let’s consider comps for 2021-23 performance … Judge’s as the baseline who at age 30 signed a 9 year / $360MM ($40MM AAV) deal. Then consider Soto’s performance (age 24) all vs. Ohtani (age 29).

1. Judge … 294/401/621 … wRC+ 181 … got him a $40MM AAV / 9 years

2. Ohtani … 277/377/589 … wRC+ 156

3. Soto … 271/422/488 … wRC+ 151

Guessing Ohtani will require a minimum 10 year deal while Soto (Boras) will shoot for a minimum of 15 (with multiple opt outs) given their respective ages.

Soto is younger and maybe with more upside but less power than Ohtani (along with my other issues including some difficulties at PETCO). Ohtani delivers the power and will generate a ton more revenue from national and international marketing. Ohtani can outshine Machado and Tatis from a marketing standpoint while suggesting Soto would just be the 3rd wheel. Can’t have both at the expected prices given what is already committed on this team.

On Soto, expect Boras to push for a deal greater than the reported $440MM rejected from WASH (that could be 15 years / $450MM … $30MM AAV minimum but front loaded with opt outs) plus top whatever Ohtani gets.

On Ohtani, he will get a premium over the pure baseball production level for his marketing pull and the “potential” for returning as a SP. Keeping in mind the complex incentive laden part for pitching … a baseline minimum should be 10 years / $450MM ($45MM AAV topping Judge) but would not be surprised a 12-13 year deal with a slightly lower AAV getting them to $500MM.

Will the Padres play at the level … guessing yes BUT will they run against Soto potentially preferring to play elsewhere given his PETCO performance (remember Judge and Turner reportedly turned down bigger contract with the Padres) and will Ohtani (who does not seem focused on the money) prefer to play for a clear playoff team … Padres are NOT proving to fit that profile.

Hopefully Ohtani (and his agent) can make a quick call … otherwise the entire FA market will be hung up except at the lower levels.

Quote from WindsorUK on September 29, 2023, 12:40 pm

As much fun as he'd be, he wouldn't choose SD, would he?

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 29, 2023, 12:43 pm

Quote from WindsorUK on September 29, 2023, 12:40 pm

As much fun as he'd be, he wouldn't choose SD, would he?

Not over the Giants or dodgers if money is the same I'm afraid...but probably over most every other team.

I may put Seattle in that same group...but their Playoff history is as bad as ours.

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 29, 2023, 2:03 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 29, 2023, 12:43 pm

Quote from WindsorUK on September 29, 2023, 12:40 pm

As much fun as he'd be, he wouldn't choose SD, would he?

Not over the Giants or dodgers if money is the same I'm afraid...but probably over most every other team.

I may put Seattle in that same group...but their Playoff history is as bad as ours.

 

Some discussion that LAD may NOT try to out bid others for Ohtani ... sort of a view they may choose to go all in on a SP (Snell ... and Friedman was the guy in TB that drafted him) and back a bit off on Ohtani given he will not pitch next year and some question whether he is RP not starter going forward. With long term big money commitments to Betts and Freeman ... just getting a DH may not be as enticing.

On the other hand, SF does appear to be poised to go all in (and they have the money) plus the reputation over the past decade of being in the playoff race. If the West Coast is not a real lure vs a team that seems geared to win ... don't rule out the Cubs ... mid-west seems a comfortable environment for him ... still would rule out the big names of the East Coast where the fan/media pressure does not seem to fit Ohtani.