Quote from fenn68 on July 27, 2024, 3:45 am

Paraphrasing Profar’s post-game interview comments … he basically he wants to continue to hit so the Padres want him back next year. Clearly he loves SD and the organization … going to be an interesting negotiation.

From Profar’s side … he is coming off a career year, legit All-Star level of production and at his age probably the last shot at a big contract. That balanced with his clear desire to remain a Padre.

From the Padres’ side … Profar is maybe the offensive MVP, player Preller likes him, the team likes him (and get energized by his presence), strong fan appeal plus no one lined up to give his production in LF (and can they find a replacement at a cheaper cost). Balance all that with the strategy on the CBT (Padres headed over for 2025) and Profar’s history before 2024 plus age.

Never a fan of assuming any player will give a “discount” to the market to sign anywhere but in this case get the sense as long as the Padres make a “fair” offer Profar will pass on pushing the envelope as a FA and sign. No idea what each side see as “fair”.

Quote from WindsorUK on July 27, 2024, 4:22 am

Bogaerts has come back with a vengeance offensively! Give him a few more games and those balls will be leaving the yard.

Now, as for his defence.....he seems to be having real issues. Maybe defensively the left shoulder needs more reps to get that coordination back with regards to glove placement, ball from  glove to hand?

Still, happy to have him back and showing the bat skills we invested in.

 

Quote from WindsorUK on July 27, 2024, 4:27 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 27, 2024, 3:45 am

Paraphrasing Profar’s post-game interview comments … he basically he wants to continue to hit so the Padres want him back next year. Clearly he loves SD and the organization … going to be an interesting negotiation.

From Profar’s side … he is coming off a career year, legit All-Star level of production and at his age probably the last shot at a big contract. That balanced with his clear desire to remain a Padre.

From the Padres’ side … Profar is maybe the offensive MVP, player Preller likes him, the team likes him (and get energized by his presence), strong fan appeal plus no one lined up to give his production in LF (and can they find a replacement at a cheaper cost). Balance all that with the strategy on the CBT (Padres headed over for 2025) and Profar’s history before 2024 plus age.

Never a fan of assuming any player will give a “discount” to the market to sign anywhere but in this case get the sense as long as the Padres make a “fair” offer Profar will pass on pushing the envelope as a FA and sign. No idea what each side see as “fair”.

Profar has definitely been our team MVP to date. And given all the qualities you suggest Fenn( players love him, fans love him, his love for SD, and his All Star level play), he's priority #1 this off season.

Quote from fenn68 on July 27, 2024, 4:45 am

Quote from WindsorUK on July 27, 2024, 4:22 am

Bogaerts has come back with a vengeance offensively! Give him a few more games and those balls will be leaving the yard.

Now, as for his defence.....he seems to be having real issues. Maybe defensively the left shoulder needs more reps to get that coordination back with regards to glove placement, ball from  glove to hand?

Still, happy to have him back and showing the bat skills we invested in.

 

Agree … defense is questionable which is surprising given his history of being “steady” making the routine plays with his major shortcoming being range.

Thinking his current showing defensively may be increasing the odds that the Padres try to resign Kim. Many are down on Kim for his drop in offense but having a legit defensive SS is important … Padres have no replacement in house and most assume Bogaerts would return to SS if Kim left … that may be in question now. DeVries is maybe a 2027 option.

I guess the only good thing about Kim’s offense struggles is that it may lower his new contract demands. Sort of like Profar … he seems to like being a Padre and is a fan favorite without a replacement in hand (and finding a low cost quality replacement will be hard).

Keeping an INF of Machado - Kim - Bogaerts - Cronenworth / Arraez goes a long way to being a playoff team.

Quote from Randy Manese on July 27, 2024, 8:04 am

Profar will be 32 years old when the 2025 season begins and while it is not unusual to have a career year at age 31 however most players don't sustain that level in the ensuing years.  In fact, Profar has regressed from his earlier unworldly statistics and is basically averaging around .260 but still slugging very well.  That latter fact is why he is having such a great season.  While he's always been a pesky hitter at the plate, this year his barrel rate and hard hit % far surpass anything he's done in his career.  Currently, his 8.7% barrel rate is easily twice what it had been the past two years - comparable to what Bogaerts did in his best years in Boston.  Likewise, his hard hit % is up to 42.3%, wherein the past it has been in the high 20's to low 30's.  Another factor is that he is just smashing pitchers from the right side, which pretty much has always been his strong side, but also significantly brought up his hitting from the left side to over .280.  This is the Profar scouts saw way back when he was a teenager and while it is great for the Padres this year (and we hope it continues through the playoffs), it likely is an aberration and unsustainable at this level going forward.

I expect Profar to still be a big contributor next year but much closer to league average.  For that reason, he again may take a short contract (maybe for only one year) for somewhere around 10M-12M, giving the Padres a bit of a discount because he just loves to play here and loves his teammates.   I believe he, because of all the ups and downs of his career and trying to live up to expectations, knows the value of being where he is wanted and respected.  For that reason, Profar is re-signed to a slightly below market value contract in 2025 and is totally satisfied with it.

Quote from Randy Manese on July 27, 2024, 8:13 am

I still don't understand the perception that Kim is not contributing to the offense.  In his last 30 games he is hitting almost .260 - what is wrong with that when you play some of the best defensive shortstop in the majors.  He draws a lot of walks and puts a lot of pressure on the defense with his stolen base ability - look for rally points and you'll typically see Kim right in the middle of it.

Like Profar, he might give San Diego a discount but believe he's looking for a contract that is similar to some of the best Korean position players who have played in the majors.  If he gets that kind of contract, which also is a sign of respect for his team contributions, then he will re-sign and it maybe for 3-4 years to cover the gap until De Vries is ready, which might be sooner than later.

Quote from fenn68 on July 27, 2024, 8:31 am

Quote from Randy Manese on July 27, 2024, 8:04 am

Profar will be 32 years old when the 2025 season begins and while it is not unusual to have a career year at age 31 however most players don't sustain that level in the ensuing years.  In fact, Profar has regressed from his earlier unworldly statistics and is basically averaging around .260 but still slugging very well.  That latter fact is why he is having such a great season.  While he's always been a pesky hitter at the plate, this year his barrel rate and hard hit % far surpass anything he's done in his career.  Currently, his 8.7% barrel rate is easily twice what it had been the past two years - comparable to what Bogaerts did in his best years in Boston.  Likewise, his hard hit % is up to 42.3%, wherein the past it has been in the high 20's to low 30's.  Another factor is that he is just smashing pitchers from the right side, which pretty much has always been his strong side, but also significantly brought up his hitting from the left side to over .280.  This is the Profar scouts saw way back when he was a teenager and while it is great for the Padres this year (and we hope it continues through the playoffs), it likely is an aberration and unsustainable at this level going forward.

I expect Profar to still be a big contributor next year but much closer to league average.  For that reason, he again may take a short contract (maybe for only one year) for somewhere around 10M-12M, giving the Padres a bit of a discount because he just loves to play here and loves his teammates.   I believe he, because of all the ups and downs of his career and trying to live up to expectations, knows the value of being where he is wanted and respected.  For that reason, Profar is re-signed to a slightly below market value contract in 2025 and is totally satisfied with it.

Sounds about right ... wonder how much getting Victor Rodriguez as his new hitting coach has helped? Rodriguez seems to have had an impact on a number of the Padre hitters.

As for a contract ... could see a bit of a more creative deal to keep the AAV down maybe with lower out year player options but base two year offer. Padres may not want to end 2025 with having to deal with Profar as a FA (and no in house replacement) along with Arraez, Cease, King, and Suarez (who will opt out) unless they plan a wholesale rebuild starting in 2026.

Quote from fenn68 on July 27, 2024, 8:47 am

Quote from Randy Manese on July 27, 2024, 8:13 am

I still don't understand the perception that Kim is not contributing to the offense.  In his last 30 games he is hitting almost .260 - what is wrong with that when you play some of the best defensive shortstop in the majors.  He draws a lot of walks and puts a lot of pressure on the defense with his stolen base ability - look for rally points and you'll typically see Kim right in the middle of it.

Like Profar, he might give San Diego a discount but believe he's looking for a contract that is similar to some of the best Korean position players who have played in the majors.  If he gets that kind of contract, which also is a sign of respect for his team contributions, then he will re-sign and it maybe for 3-4 years to cover the gap until De Vries is ready, which might be sooner than later.

I am a Kim supporter and Padres do need to sign him for both his current on field work and as a bridge to DeVries. However, some look at his 2023 offensive numbers and consider anything less a disappointment ... especially if they just focus on the early part of the season.

A 3-4 year deal is probably the most Kim could get ... just not sure on the dollars. The shortage of quality SS does make the demand somewhat greater than his pure stats would suggest as a salary.

Since 2025 may be the end of the legit contending window given all the FA after 2025 ... and the team looking legit ... Padres in my mind should ensure they stay under the 2024 CBT (reset the penalties to the start) and in 2025 resign Profar, Kim, and Higashioka and with the pending arb decisions go over the CBT (with minimal penalty) in 2025. Then in 2026 they will drop under again ... will not be able to afford the potential long term / high AAV for all (or any) of the high profile FA (but will get a lot of Comp Picks with QO).

Side: the CBA ends after 2026 ... no idea what that brings going forward (along with a potential work stoppage in 2027) ... so might make sense to minimize commitments of any kind beyond 2026 while trying to navigate the new rules coming in 2027. Padres are locked into many already ... so more may become a problem.

Quote from Stergios on July 27, 2024, 11:29 am

We’re scheduled to exceed the CBT next season due to the new salaries of King, Cease, Profar, Arraez, Kim, etc.?  It seems, based on what I’m reading on here, that we are guaranteed to exceed it.  But does that posit that we will be keeping the roster as is and absorbing the new salaries of the players currently on our roster?