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San Diego Padres at Baltimore Orioles: July 26-28

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Quote from Stergios on July 27, 2024, 11:29 am

We’re scheduled to exceed the CBT next season due to the new salaries of King, Cease, Profar, Arraez, Kim, etc.?  It seems, based on what I’m reading on here, that we are guaranteed to exceed it.  But does that posit that we will be keeping the roster as is and absorbing the new salaries of the players currently on our roster?

Since at this point guessing the arb calls on Arraez, Cease, King should take the Padres over (or right up to) the CBT in 2025 (remember in 2024 MIA is basically covering all of Arraez) and that is without resigning Kim, Profar, and HIgashioka. Sign them them and clearly over since even with the incentives kicking in Profar will only cost $2.5MM in 2024 (and that will go way up on a new contract) and Kim is around $7MM AAV and that too will go up.

Padres are locked into some big (no trade) contracts that would be hard to unload without eating salary and creating a new hole on the roster. Not a likely route to make the CBT.

To stay under … only add league minimum types and need to move on from maybe $20-25MM of contracts while still maintaining a competitive roster … not easy.

Padres could not sign Profar, Kim, and HIgashioka and maybe non-tender De Los Santos to stay under OR choose to trade from Arraez, Cease … they are the big money arbs and will be FA after 2025 (not likely to be re-signed) plus should yield some decent ML ready (near ready) prospects … but that would hurt the team competitiveness for 2025.

Tough call for the organization trying to balance financial issues with what likely is a last hurrah for a big season in 2025. Guessing they go over the CBT and make that last run in 2025. A strong playoff run in 2024 and 2025 should pay for the extra salaries in 2025.

Side: there is a bit of an unknown consideration in all this … that is MLB rules on “debt servicing” and where the Padres will be standing. Apparently that was a league factor that pushed the Padres to drastically reduce the 2024 payroll. IF that remains an issue for 2025 … Padres may have to move on from some of the current roster. Hope not but limit any growth in payroll. Just something to speculate on.

As expected Mazur has been optioned to El Paso. Padres will not need a 5th starter for awhile.

Jacob has been recalled to bolster the pen.

Kolek has been really struggling recently … normally in the clean-up role. As long as the Padres are winning … that is probably OK and I do think he will have value in the coming years.

One thing to watch out for is a Kolek injury (maybe oblique) and an IL stint that takes him out for the rest of the season. Per the Rule 5 considerations … Kolek needs only to be on the active roster for 90 days (Kolek has been) to meet the restrictions and if he finishes the season on the IL … no restrictions in 2025 and he remains a Padres likely optioned to EP.

Of course, Padres will need a better RP option at that point … so?

I’m loving what I’m seeing…going into Baltimore and at the very least winning the series after sweeping the Nats and winning the series against Cleveland makes this a great road trip…7-1 with a game left in Baltimore.

Go Padres!!!

The Padres win and take the series to extend their winning streak to a season high 7 wins and a season high 7 games above .500.

Despite being charged with 2 runs in the 7th, King pitched a great game.  Every starter has a least one hit. Even Higgy has improved as the season progressed. He has a .275 avg in June and a .282 avg so far in July.

Tomorrow's game: Vasquez(3-5, 4.17 ERA) vs Albert Suarez(5-4, 3.48 ERA) - 10:35am (Note: Albert Suarez is Padres Robert Suarez's brother)

The Padres own the Orioles. It's time to get out the brooms and sweep them to make it 8 in a row.

GO PADRES!

Dodgers lost, Padres gain a game and are 5.5 games back. Braves beat the Mets moving the Padres into the second wild card spot

WindsorUK has reacted to this post.
WindsorUK

Would anyone in their right minds have thought after the close of the first half and then after the first game in Cleveland that the Padres even had a chance to go 8-1 on this road trip? That the Dodgers may get swept in Houston and that there is a possibility the Padres can be within 3 games of the Dodgers by next Thursday?

Quote from fenn68 on July 27, 2024, 8:31 am
Quote from Randy Manese on July 27, 2024, 8:04 am

Profar will be 32 years old when the 2025 season begins and while it is not unusual to have a career year at age 31 however most players don't sustain that level in the ensuing years.  In fact, Profar has regressed from his earlier unworldly statistics and is basically averaging around .260 but still slugging very well.  That latter fact is why he is having such a great season.  While he's always been a pesky hitter at the plate, this year his barrel rate and hard hit % far surpass anything he's done in his career.  Currently, his 8.7% barrel rate is easily twice what it had been the past two years - comparable to what Bogaerts did in his best years in Boston.  Likewise, his hard hit % is up to 42.3%, wherein the past it has been in the high 20's to low 30's.  Another factor is that he is just smashing pitchers from the right side, which pretty much has always been his strong side, but also significantly brought up his hitting from the left side to over .280.  This is the Profar scouts saw way back when he was a teenager and while it is great for the Padres this year (and we hope it continues through the playoffs), it likely is an aberration and unsustainable at this level going forward.

I expect Profar to still be a big contributor next year but much closer to league average.  For that reason, he again may take a short contract (maybe for only one year) for somewhere around 10M-12M, giving the Padres a bit of a discount because he just loves to play here and loves his teammates.   I believe he, because of all the ups and downs of his career and trying to live up to expectations, knows the value of being where he is wanted and respected.  For that reason, Profar is re-signed to a slightly below market value contract in 2025 and is totally satisfied with it.

Sounds about right ... wonder how much getting Victor Rodriguez as his new hitting coach has helped? Rodriguez seems to have had an impact on a number of the Padre hitters.

As for a contract ... could see a bit of a more creative deal to keep the AAV down maybe with lower out year player options but base two year offer. Padres may not want to end 2025 with having to deal with Profar as a FA (and no in house replacement) along with Arraez, Cease, King, and Suarez (who will opt out) unless they plan a wholesale rebuild starting in 2026.

I remember reading that Profar said he worked with Tatis and his dad over the offseason. He also played Winter Ball and was doing well there. Whatever they worked on has paid dividends this season.

I love Kim, but he seems to regularly make questionable decisions on the basepaths.

WTF—-If you’re going to have sunglasses on then use them instead of looking cool and have them on your hat.

Peralta is a terrible outfielder and I said that over a month ago and nothing has changed.

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