Quote from Henry Silvestre on September 29, 2019, 5:10 am

1. Quote from fenn68 on September 28, 2019, 11:29 am

I guess this is either a 2019 anomaly or something to be concerned about going forward.

Machado hit .253 vs. a career of .278 ... not good. Doing a one level split, AWAY from his home park he has a career .273 BA and in 2019 he is at .286 ... Padres getting what they paid for. However, in his career at HOME he has hit .284 which is about the same has his AWAY stats but in 2019 at PETCO he is all the way down to .219 ... the key to a less than expected offensive year.

So, it seems that his Home/Away stats while in Baltimore are about the same and his Away stats in 2019 are also similar .... we can focus on his play in PETCO.

An issue with the park, sight lines, marine layer, .....? Just needs time to adjust to a new home environment? His history suggest he should rebound and return to his career performance level ... but ...

Yeah I think playing 81 at Petco brings everyone down.. I mean Agon struggled at home and killed it on the road... I have a theory that at Petco with Marine layer and Sea Level.. The ball obviously doesn't carry..so players "over swing" in an effort to add exit velo to their balls in play ..thus taking them off their normal swing plane.. Resulting in negative results..  Why i think an 800 OPS player in SD is a ++.. Like 850-900 OPS elsewhere... I think if players just go about their business at Petco they can have success at Petco..maybe not the power numbers they would want..but would definitely be more productive at the plate.. Just my theory but going back to Giles and crew.. The moment they come here BA goes down.. As do OBP and OPS.. Can still have success but not to the level of playing at Orioles or Pitt or other precious home stadium

 

Case and point Giles at Petco .264/.370/.398 .768 OPS

Career .291/.400/.506 .902 OPS

Quote from fenn68 on September 29, 2019, 6:46 am

Yeh, PETCO / SD is a clear depressant to offense (but a plus to pitching). Looking at 2019 for the Padres:

hitting (wRC+): 92 (AWAY) v. 84 (HOME) .. basically 9% worse at PETCO

pitching (ERA): 5.06 (AWAY) v. 4.28 (HOME) ...  basically 18% better at PETCO

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Those splits may contribute to who the Padres keep / move .... maybe more focus on the AWAY performance for pitchers and HOME performance for hitters?

That 5.06 ERA puts the Padres 25th in AWAY performance in the ML (they are 15th in HOME performance). That 84 wRC+ puts the Padres 28th In HOME performance in the ML (they are 19th in AWAY performance).

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As for Machado .... wRC+ 127 AWAY v. 86 HOME. Pretty big difference and since 127 is more what Machado is .... optimistic that he can at least close the gap with improved results at PETCO.

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Now all players don’t seem to fit that logic:

Myers: 86 AWAY .... 106 HOME

Hosmer: 91 AWAY ... 94 HOME

Quote from Henry Silvestre on September 29, 2019, 7:28 am

Quote from fenn68 on September 29, 2019, 6:46 am

Yeh, PETCO / SD is a clear depressant to offense (but a plus to pitching). Looking at 2019 for the Padres:

hitting (wRC+): 92 (AWAY) v. 84 (HOME) .. basically 9% worse at PETCO

pitching (ERA): 5.06 (AWAY) v. 4.28 (HOME) ...  basically 18% better at PETCO

=======

Those splits may contribute to who the Padres keep / move .... maybe more focus on the AWAY performance for pitchers and HOME performance for hitters?

That 5.06 ERA puts the Padres 25th in AWAY performance in the ML (they are 15th in HOME performance). That 84 wRC+ puts the Padres 28th In HOME performance in the ML (they are 19th in AWAY performance).

=======

As for Machado .... wRC+ 127 AWAY v. 86 HOME. Pretty big difference and since 127 is more what Machado is .... optimistic that he can at least close the gap with improved results at PETCO.

=======

Now all players don’t seem to fit that logic:

Myers: 86 AWAY .... 106 HOME

Hosmer: 91 AWAY ... 94 HOME

It seems to affect the power players most.. Giles..Machado both .500 slgs.. Also lefties (except Hosmer) Naylor about .100 OPS better on the road .. Urias + Myers and Myers sort of closer to even..none is huge power dude..

Quote from Henry Silvestre on September 29, 2019, 7:38 am

Machado poor home split..probably a combo of a slow start..getting used to a new ball park.. Probably hit 20 balls that would have been Hrs or doubles in Baltimore .. And getting used to NL... I can see hus road numbers staying the same or improving and him jumping +.50 or more in OPS at Petco in 2020 ...

Quote from fenn68 on September 29, 2019, 9:11 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on September 29, 2019, 7:38 am

Machado poor home split..probably a combo of a slow start..getting used to a new ball park.. Probably hit 20 balls that would have been Hrs or doubles in Baltimore .. And getting used to NL... I can see hus road numbers staying the same or improving and him jumping +.50 or more in OPS at Petco in 2020 ...

That is my guess (hope) as Machado learns what works for him at PETCO .... he seems like a player than can adjust his approach using all fields as necessary.

Agree that players who suffer the most are the ones that have their carrying tool being power (fly balls). That may (should) focus the Padres less on power types and more on line drive / ground ball types that could be successful for the 81 home games without being impotent on the road.

Oddly, Myers’ wRC+ of 106 makes him one of the best PETCO hitters on the Padres. I guess that may justify not dealing him for peanuts or eating his entire contract ... and equally puts the bullseye on all the other OF.

Quote from fenn68 on September 29, 2019, 9:37 am

The counter point to poor hitting at PETCO vs. AWAY .... is better pitching at PETCO vs. AWAY. In 2019 Padres have some starters with extreme splits.

Player ERA: Home / Away

Lamet: 5.25 v. 2.92 ... small sample size returning from TJ (but love the AWAY)

Paddack: 3.06 v. 3.53 ... pretty good for a rookie

Quantrill: 4.88 v. 5.52 ... small sample size as mid-season call-up

Lauer: 3.08 v. 5.99 ... 2nd year AWAY is just plain bad

Lucchessi: 2.56 v. 6.22 ... 2nd year AWAY is abysmal

Putting the focus on Lauer and Lucchesi those HOME v AWAY splits are really scary for 2nd year pitchers. Overall ERA: Lauer (4.45) and Lucchesi (4.18) plus the fact they were healthy and pitched 150 and 163 innings respectively should make them somewhat desirable as trade chips for a team seeking SP support (assuming their analytics are not focused on the AWAY stat).

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Could make a case for the Padres minimizing the players (pitchers and hitters) with extreme splits since it appears that the superior AWAY hitting is fully neutralized by ineffective AWAY pitching and then visa versa at PETCO.

 

Quote from 3fingersplit on September 29, 2019, 9:55 am

You guys over analyse everything.......it's baseball

Bottom line is that Petco is the cause of all the problems so they should just move the team to Temecula.....

then you guys can decide if it would play better on the east side or west side of the 15

It's baseball and guys fail at least 70% of the time or in the Padres case.....75%-80%

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 29, 2019, 12:57 pm

Lauers’ way split is Coors.....period.

Three starts at Colorado killed his stats.

 

This team is 2-14 in its last 16 to finish the season...before today of course.

I guess it doesn’t matter except helping our draft position, but man....it’s been tough to watch and I can’t NOT watch.

It’s just not in my DNA.

I didn’t do as well this year compared to most but still saw 155+ games.

I just didn’t see “the end” of as many as I usually do.

 

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 29, 2019, 1:47 pm

We may as well lose this one too so we can pick 8th.

If we win and Rockies lose “they” get #8 and us #9.