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Regular Season Discussion

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So we have the 6th pick in next years draft.

 

Season over ... time to take a breath and just enjoy October and the playoffs (which look to be quite compelling).

Once November arrives, we can start thinking about reshaping the roster (FA, Rule 5) and the Winter Meetings in December (possible FA, trades).

David Jay has reacted to this post.
David Jay
Quote from David Nevin on September 29, 2018, 7:03 am

So is Freddy Galvis the runaway MVP of this season for us?

While he was great for us all year this says more about the rest of the lineup and a good indication of why we almost lost 100 games.

No.

Myers and Renfroe were bigger contributors on the field than Galvis. I think it was probably by a margin somewhere between what you see from BBRef and Fangraphs, but Galvis was among the worst everyday players at his position in the majors.

He was not great. He was not good. He wasn't league average. He was, however, always (and inexplicably) present.

Can a team that lost 96 games have an MVP?

I do give Galvis credit for being out there everyday and playing "steady" defense (albeit little range) plus being a stabilizing factor in the infield. However except for the burst in September ... he really did not hit. On the other hand the alternative was ??????.  Has been (and will be) a below average SS (offense / defense) so would not be all that interested in resigning him barring a real low end 1 year deal. Basically ride the Tatis wave.

Basically no one played enough for the MVP honor ... yes, Hosmer played but did not meet expectations.

Wow ... Hosmer was bad ... worse than I realized ... -0.1 WAR ... ouch 🙁

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=300&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=29&rost=&age=&filter=&players=

# Name G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ BsR Off Def WAR
1 Wil Myers 83 343 11 39 39 13 8.70% 27.40% 0.192 0.327 0.253 0.318 0.446 0.328 107 3.8 6.9 -2.2 1.6
2 Hunter Renfroe 117 441 26 53 68 2 6.80% 24.70% 0.256 0.271 0.248 0.302 0.504 0.338 114 -1.1 6.7 -5.6 1.5
3 Christian Villanueva 110 384 20 42 46 3 6.00% 27.10% 0.214 0.276 0.236 0.299 0.45 0.323 104 -1 0.9 -1.3 1.2
4 Freddy Galvis 162 656 13 62 67 8 6.90% 22.40% 0.133 0.304 0.248 0.299 0.38 0.294 85 0 -12.1 2.9 1.2
5 Austin Hedges 91 326 14 29 37 3 6.40% 27.60% 0.198 0.28 0.231 0.282 0.429 0.301 90 -1.6 -5.7 5.1 1
6 Travis Jankowski 117 387 4 45 17 24 9.60% 18.90% 0.086 0.319 0.259 0.332 0.346 0.303 91 2.4 -2.1 -0.9 1
7 Cory Spangenberg 116 329 7 35 25 6 7.60% 32.80% 0.128 0.344 0.235 0.298 0.362 0.29 83 2.4 -4.6 0.6 0.7
8 Manuel Margot 141 519 8 50 51 11 6.20% 17.00% 0.138 0.281 0.245 0.292 0.384 0.288 81 -1.4 -13.6 3.1 0.6
9 Eric Hosmer 157 677 18 72 69 7 9.20% 21.00% 0.145 0.302 0.253 0.322 0.398 0.309 95 -4 -8 -14.8 -0.1
10 Jose Pirela 146 473 5 54 32 6 6.30% 18.80% 0.096 0.301 0.249 0.3 0.345 0.283 78 -4.7 -17.6 -5.1 -0.8

So ... WAR says Stammen is/was MVP ... sounds good to me ... none of those bats earned an MVP ...

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=29&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

# Name W L SV G GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP WAR
1 Craig Stammen 8 3 0 73 0 79 10.03 1.94 0.34 0.301 74.30% 49.30% 4.90% 2.73 2.19 2.97 2.3
2 Kirby Yates 5 3 12 65 0 63 12.86 2.43 0.86 0.263 87.70% 42.80% 11.80% 2.14 2.54 2.64 1.8
3 Robbie Erlin 4 7 0 39 12 109 7.27 0.99 0.99 0.306 62.50% 46.70% 11.90% 4.21 3.31 3.41 1.7
4 Joey Lucchesi 8 9 0 26 26 130 10.04 2.98 1.59 0.306 78.00% 44.70% 20.40% 4.08 4.32 3.45 1.1
5 Adam Cimber 3 5 0 42 0 48.1 9.5 1.86 0.37 0.315 68.40% 52.30% 6.70% 3.17 2.33 2.82 1.1
6 Jose Castillo 3 3 0 37 0 38.1 12.21 2.82 0.7 0.25 71.00% 37.80% 8.60% 3.29 2.64 3.13 0.9
7 Matt Strahm 3 4 0 41 5 61.1 10.13 3.08 0.88 0.226 86.10% 34.90% 9.20% 2.05 3.36 3.84 0.9
8 Eric Lauer 6 7 0 23 23 112 8.04 3.7 1.21 0.332 74.70% 37.60% 12.70% 4.34 4.51 4.51 0.8
9 Brad Hand 2 4 24 41 0 44.1 13.2 3.05 1.02 0.298 70.80% 46.90% 15.60% 3.05 3.19 2.91 0.7
10 Tyson Ross 6 9 0 22 22 123.1 7.81 3.79 1.17 0.276 72.00% 43.80% 15.50% 4.45 4.55 4.24 0.7
11 Clayton Richard 7 11 0 27 27 158.2 6.13 3.4 1.08 0.289 64.70% 56.80% 17.80% 5.33 4.68 4.24 0.7
12 Robert Stock 1 1 0 32 0 39.2 8.62 2.95 0.23 0.321 77.10% 50.00% 2.70% 2.5 2.71 3.92 0.7
13 Phil Maton 0 2 0 45 0 47.1 10.46 4.37 0.57 0.359 70.60% 35.90% 5.60% 4.37 3.25 4.31 0.6
14 Luis Perdomo 1 6 0 12 10 44.2 7.86 4.43 0.81 0.389 61.40% 43.00% 9.50% 7.05 4.26 4.65 0.4
15 Jordan Lyles 2 4 0 24 8 71.1 7.82 2.4 1.51 0.286 75.50% 46.70% 14.80% 4.29 4.45 4.14 0.3
16 Miguel Diaz 1 0 0 11 0 18.2 14.46 5.79 0.96 0.341 67.50% 34.90% 10.50% 4.82 3.27 3.56 0.2
17 Brad Wieck 0 0 0 5 0 7 12.86 0 1.29 0.154 100.00% 28.60% 12.50% 1.29 2.16 2.19 0.2
18 Colten Brewer 1 0 0 11 0 9.2 9.31 6.52 0 0.469 54.60% 50.00% 0.00% 5.59 3.27 4.63 0.1
19 Rowan Wick 0 1 0 10 0 8.1 7.56 1.08 1.08 0.414 63.50% 39.30% 7.70% 6.48 3.4 4.42 0.1

mlb.com sez ...

The starting pitching struggled, but the Padres' bullpen was excellent in 2018. Its 3.50 ERA ranked third in the National League and sixth overall. Of course, that number doesn't tell the whole story, because of the burden placed on the relief corps by short starts.

The 'pen was clearly much better than sixth-best. Padres relievers combined to post an 8.8 WAR, according to FanGraphs. That's the second best mark ever recorded in the National League, trailing only the 2003 Dodgers.

I forgot.......it’s 2018.

Watching 160 games and “seeing’ every player every day doesn’t mean anything.

It’s WAR!

 

Quote from David Nevin on October 2, 2018, 3:18 am

I forgot.......it’s 2018.

Watching 160 games and “seeing’ every player every day doesn’t mean anything.

It’s WAR!

 

I will stick with my "no MVP" view for 2018. Interestingly only 3 Padre position players actually played enough to be "Qualified" for post season awards: Galvis, Margot, and Hosmer ... and Galvis was the best of those three arguably but still not that good. Hard to even consider (despite WAR) as Most Valuable some like Myers who only played in 83 games or Renfroe who only played in 117 ... different question as to who is the current best talent. Maybe they are in contention for the "Best Supporting Player in a Limited Role" although I give that to Reyes.

Despite that wonderful WAR, I would take Yates over Stammen ... lower ERA, lower WHIP, higher K%, with 12 saves and only 1 blown save after getting thrust into the closer role with the trade of Hand. Like Stammen but the set-up man is not quite the same (and he was 0 for 5 in save opportunities). So Yates with non-WAR points for degree of difficulty in a late inning role.

Maybe a group MVP for the bullpen ... clearly the one outstanding piece of the 2018 Padres.

Quote from LynchMob on October 1, 2018, 5:53 pm

mlb.com sez ...

The starting pitching struggled, but the Padres' bullpen was excellent in 2018. Its 3.50 ERA ranked third in the National League and sixth overall. Of course, that number doesn't tell the whole story, because of the burden placed on the relief corps by short starts.

The 'pen was clearly much better than sixth-best. Padres relievers combined to post an 8.8 WAR, according to FanGraphs. That's the second best mark ever recorded in the National League, trailing only the 2003 Dodgers.

The flip side of being taxed by the short starts is that, since WAR is accumulates with playing time, that extended workload is one of the contributing reasons for the high bullpen WAR.

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