Quote from MrPadre19 on November 17, 2020, 9:46 am

But based on 2020's 60 game season this offense isn't lacking.

It's pitching that we need.

LF "after" 2021 is still really the only non pitching question mark going forward.

So again I think it all depends on the big 3 starter prospects....could say 4 if you include Weathers.

 

Quote from fenn68 on November 17, 2020, 10:02 am

Something not to just brush off .... the "special" years all the position players are going to be hard to repeat over a full 162 games schedule as they regress to the norm, consider:

Machado ...148 wRC+ in 2020 well over his career of 120 (an in a hitters park in BALT) ... basically his career year

Myers .... 154 well above a career of 110

Hosmer ... 127 better than career of 107 (and still can't hit LHP)

Then the new guys:

Nola (will be 31) hit at 126 (only 93 in SD) over his 2019 in SEA at 114 but not he was not much of a hitter in his long run in the minors ... not sold on his above average offensive contribution

Grisham at 121 is an improvement over career 109

Cronenworth as a rookie delivered a 125 (but was really an under performer in Sept).

Tatis delivered 149 (150 in 2019) but really slumped in Sept .... and has not delivered a full season since 2017 in the minors.

Pham (at 33) ... injured should be an offensive upgrade over Profar but age and injury does insert some concern.

======

In September the Padres were a pretty "average" offensive unit. Even if is a split decision on players who regress ... with no bench support ... going to lose a lot of ground to the LAD and maybe even in Wild Card contention.

Padres, in my mind needed to bolster offense, RP, and SP to be a real 2021 contender WITH one of the top MLB pitchers in Clevinger. Without Clevinger ... that gap really widens and just not enough funds, trade chips to fill in the blanks in 2021 with quality. Think they need to focus on the return of Clevinger and the roster for 2022 and beyond IF they make any major deals or signings.

Of course, some lower end tinkering still has to happen just to keep the team relevant.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 17, 2020, 10:38 am

Doubt Guerra has any trade value ... with no minor league options .... very poor ML showing ... and very worrisome "undisclosed" reason for the IL.

Agree to disagree on Guerra.   He got pushed from garbage time to essentially no role in pen at trade deadline.  It was obvious he was not going to be on the playoff roster/s.  BUT I wonder if the "IL" for undisclosed reason wasn't simply a 'mutual' (team dictated) decision...  It was mentioned in the UT article that he was among many pitchers at the Alt site that was playing in the field sometimes--to be able to field 2 teams for mini games...   doesn't sound "injured" to me.  Could it have been a back door, logical, best step to take for his development & current place on team to just clear his head & then work at the Alt site a little?

Emilio Pagan said Guerra has "as much talent as any RP he's ever seen", guys @ 100 MPH+ are more common than in past, but not dime a dozen as you suggest.  Guerra's easily the hardest throwing RP on the roster right now (Altavilla next: high 90's).  He was the #24 consensus prospect entering 2020 (I had him #32).  9 guys ahead of him were traded, plus Cronenworth graduated.   Even adding back the top 4 draft picks this year & Jorge Mateo ahead of Guerra, that alone pushes him up towards top 20 in our system as a prospect.  " Advancers" below him?  Only Jorge Ona, David Bednar & (briefly) Preciado played @ alt site &/or MLB.  Ona & Preciado > Guerra >  Bednar whose ceiling looks like middle relief.  Don't really see how you can advance other prospects > #25 entering 2020 that didn't play all last year?   Bottom line:  as a prospect, Guerra still top 25 in a less deep 2021 system.

Guerra is inarguably a bad fit on Padres current roster.  And they may be forced to DFA him before ST if they sign FA's.  But back of bullpen guys (used to 🙂 ) cost 8 figs/year.  I'd be really surprised if a bad MLB team wouldn't trade their #25 prospect: 18 y.o. P in low A or 24 y.o. utility guy in AA to take a flier on Guerra's upside by letting him continue to get work in meaningless low leverage situations & see if he can develop.

 

Quote from fenn68 on November 17, 2020, 10:59 am

Not sure what a team has to do to put a player on the IL for a "non-physical" injury ... MLB can't really make that "easy" or they would have a major loophole in the process.

Sort of linking Guerra's departure a few years back (think in LE) which sounded similar to this situation. Worried he may have a more serious issues than just "clearing his head". Needs to be what is best for Guerra and that may not be being the last man in the pen if struggling. Takes smarter people than I to make that call.

===

Alternatively, the injury to Clevinger and the follow-up actions by the Padres may make keeping him on the 26 man more feasible. If they don't deploy money on bolstering the pen ... and that long string of RP names don't produce (Williams, Altavilla, Bednar) and/or they find a taker for Stammen there could be room. Especially if there is little difference for that 7th-8th man in the pen they could go with youth and upside.

Quote from fenn68 on November 17, 2020, 12:00 pm

Random thinking while being obsessed with adding offense now and for the future:

$18MM (4 years / $72MM as guessed by MLBTradeRumors): Ozuna ... LF/DH

$  6MM (3 years / $18MM .. MLBTR guessed $7MM/1 year): Profar ... LF/super sub/DH

=======

That would cover the offensive needs into 2023 (until Myers becomes a FA).

=======

$10MM ... rumored available for adds before current moves

$  8MM... non-tender of Pham

$  4MM... Clevinger's "savings" for new contract for 2021

$  2MM... non-tender Garcia (Profar become the 2nd insurance)

$. 2MM... non-tender Perdomo (just because)

=====

so, +$24MM (Ozuna / Profar) and - $26MM (offsetting actions) and all is good and in a very good position for 2022 when Clevinger returns (replacing Davies who goes FA and with having sorted through the prospect pitchers to secure two for the other SP slots). As it stands, maybe 2022 becomes a better set-up to dislodge the LAD?

 

Quote from BoosterSD on November 17, 2020, 1:54 pm

Quote from fenn68 on November 17, 2020, 12:00 pm

Random thinking while being obsessed with adding offense now and for the future:

$18MM (4 years / $72MM as guessed by MLBTradeRumors): Ozuna ... LF/DH

$  6MM (3 years / $18MM .. MLBTR guessed $7MM/1 year): Profar ... LF/super sub/DH

I know many on here liked Profar after he started producing, and we know Preller is a fan as well. However, was last year a spike? And couldn't we get Galvis cheaper than Profar? We are really just looking for a RHH 2B for Jake C anyway, and a possible day breather for Tatis.

You could keep Allen and/or Mateo as the late inning defensive replacement for Ozuna, and then have Pilar for an additional RHH CF back up with Galvis in the INF probably for the same price as Profar on his own.

We are looking at a 5 person bench of Allen, Pilar, Galvis, Mejia, and Mateo. Thats not all that bad for a bench. Got some vets and some speed and defense.

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 17, 2020, 2:02 pm

Quote from fenn68 on November 17, 2020, 10:02 am

Something not to just brush off .... the "special" years all the position players are going to be hard to repeat over a full 162 games schedule as they regress to the norm, consider:

Machado ...148 wRC+ in 2020 well over his career of 120 (an in a hitters park in BALT) ... basically his career year

Myers .... 154 well above a career of 110

Hosmer ... 127 better than career of 107 (and still can't hit LHP)

Then the new guys:

Nola (will be 31) hit at 126 (only 93 in SD) over his 2019 in SEA at 114 but not he was not much of a hitter in his long run in the minors ... not sold on his above average offensive contribution

Grisham at 121 is an improvement over career 109

Cronenworth as a rookie delivered a 125 (but was really an under performer in Sept).

Tatis delivered 149 (150 in 2019) but really slumped in Sept .... and has not delivered a full season since 2017 in the minors.

Pham (at 33) ... injured should be an offensive upgrade over Profar but age and injury does insert some concern.

======

In September the Padres were a pretty "average" offensive unit. Even if is a split decision on players who regress ... with no bench support ... going to lose a lot of ground to the LAD and maybe even in Wild Card contention.

Padres, in my mind needed to bolster offense, RP, and SP to be a real 2021 contender WITH one of the top MLB pitchers in Clevinger. Without Clevinger ... that gap really widens and just not enough funds, trade chips to fill in the blanks in 2021 with quality. Think they need to focus on the return of Clevinger and the roster for 2022 and beyond IF they make any major deals or signings.

Of course, some lower end tinkering still has to happen just to keep the team relevant.

 

While this is true you can't also just brush off that there's a chance some of the Dodgers players regress some also.

While Bellinger didn't have a good year he was much better late and in the playoffs when they needed him.

Betts will be Betts...no doubt,but they have some players leaving and it's not a certainty that some of their guys have an off season either.

Corey Seager and Will Smith played out of their minds in 2020.

Can they repeat it....sure,but to say only our players might regress isn't fair IMO.

 

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on November 17, 2020, 2:17 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on November 17, 2020, 1:54 pm

Quote from fenn68 on November 17, 2020, 12:00 pm

Random thinking while being obsessed with adding offense now and for the future:

$18MM (4 years / $72MM as guessed by MLBTradeRumors): Ozuna ... LF/DH

$  6MM (3 years / $18MM .. MLBTR guessed $7MM/1 year): Profar ... LF/super sub/DH

I know many on here liked Profar after he started producing, and we know Preller is a fan as well. However, was last year a spike? And couldn't we get Galvis cheaper than Profar? We are really just looking for a RHH 2B for Jake C anyway, and a possible day breather for Tatis.

You could keep Allen and/or Mateo as the late inning defensive replacement for Ozuna, and then have Pilar for an additional RHH CF back up with Galvis in the INF probably for the same price as Profar on his own.

We are looking at a 5 person bench of Allen, Pilar, Galvis, Mejia, and Mateo. Thats not all that bad for a bench. Got some vets and some speed and defense.

A Galvis / Pillar over Profar would work .... not sure much less money (last year Pillar at $4.25MM, Galvis at $4MM) and would not do them greater than a one year deals (both into their 30s). Both have been everyday players ... not sure they would be quick to take a bench role ... especially if it appears to be a very limited role.

Might be able to get them on the cheap since neither Galvis nor Pillar is on MLBTR Top 50 FA list (Profar is #34). At least with Profar he can fill in at 7 field positions decently as one player opening another slot for a different type of player need ... maybe carry Nola, Campusano, and Mejia.

 

Quote from fenn68 on November 17, 2020, 2:31 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 17, 2020, 2:02 pm

Quote from fenn68 on November 17, 2020, 10:02 am

Something not to just brush off .... the "special" years all the position players are going to be hard to repeat over a full 162 games schedule as they regress to the norm, consider:

Machado ...148 wRC+ in 2020 well over his career of 120 (an in a hitters park in BALT) ... basically his career year

Myers .... 154 well above a career of 110

Hosmer ... 127 better than career of 107 (and still can't hit LHP)

Then the new guys:

Nola (will be 31) hit at 126 (only 93 in SD) over his 2019 in SEA at 114 but not he was not much of a hitter in his long run in the minors ... not sold on his above average offensive contribution

Grisham at 121 is an improvement over career 109

Cronenworth as a rookie delivered a 125 (but was really an under performer in Sept).

Tatis delivered 149 (150 in 2019) but really slumped in Sept .... and has not delivered a full season since 2017 in the minors.

Pham (at 33) ... injured should be an offensive upgrade over Profar but age and injury does insert some concern.

======

In September the Padres were a pretty "average" offensive unit. Even if is a split decision on players who regress ... with no bench support ... going to lose a lot of ground to the LAD and maybe even in Wild Card contention.

Padres, in my mind needed to bolster offense, RP, and SP to be a real 2021 contender WITH one of the top MLB pitchers in Clevinger. Without Clevinger ... that gap really widens and just not enough funds, trade chips to fill in the blanks in 2021 with quality. Think they need to focus on the return of Clevinger and the roster for 2022 and beyond IF they make any major deals or signings.

Of course, some lower end tinkering still has to happen just to keep the team relevant.

 

While this is true you can't also just brush off that there's a chance some of the Dodgers players regress some also.

While Bellinger didn't have a good year he was much better late and in the playoffs when they needed him.

Betts will be Betts...no doubt,but they have some players leaving and it's not a certainty that some of their guys have an off season either.

Corey Seager and Will Smith played out of their minds in 2020.

Can they repeat it....sure,but to say only our players might regress isn't fair IMO.

 

 

 

Of course LAD could regress ... but they won the NL West by a lot ... 6 games in a 60 game season is big (16 games in a 162 game season). Long shot for both SD to hold their 2020 level and have the LAD have a major regression.

Think it is more strategic to build a roster to contend for the Wild Card (the 162 game schedule) and "adjust" if needed at the trade deadline to create a strong playoff roster.