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Padres vs Rockies March 30-April 2
Quote from fenn68 on March 31, 2023, 5:17 amJeff Sanders had an interesting note on Tapia (and in general the value of ST stats).
Apparently the computers of the world can evaluate the quality of ST hitters in relation to what minor league level they reflect. The implication is that stats accumulated near the end of ST games can be very misleading.
In Tapia’s case, his opponents rated 6.3 (on a 10 scale) which sit those hitters between AA and A+ quality. At age 31 and a minor league FA with only 57 ML innings it was a surprise he made the roster and looks like that was a gamble not well taken.
Good chance he is the DFA when either Suarez or Musgrove return. Also, would provide the roster slot for Tatis.
Jeff Sanders had an interesting note on Tapia (and in general the value of ST stats).
Apparently the computers of the world can evaluate the quality of ST hitters in relation to what minor league level they reflect. The implication is that stats accumulated near the end of ST games can be very misleading.
In Tapia’s case, his opponents rated 6.3 (on a 10 scale) which sit those hitters between AA and A+ quality. At age 31 and a minor league FA with only 57 ML innings it was a surprise he made the roster and looks like that was a gamble not well taken.
Good chance he is the DFA when either Suarez or Musgrove return. Also, would provide the roster slot for Tatis.
Quote from MrPadre19 on March 31, 2023, 6:01 amHe will be fine IMO.
I'm guessing if he hadn't just had the leg issue (may not be 100%) and the grass wasn't wet he would have got there.
He may have even been told to "take it easy" a bit.
But if that's the case maybe he should have DH'd.
He will be fine IMO.
I'm guessing if he hadn't just had the leg issue (may not be 100%) and the grass wasn't wet he would have got there.
He may have even been told to "take it easy" a bit.
But if that's the case maybe he should have DH'd.
Quote from fenn68 on March 31, 2023, 7:13 amQuote from MrPadre19 on March 31, 2023, 6:01 amHe will be fine IMO.
I'm guessing if he hadn't just had the leg issue (may not be 100%) and the grass wasn't wet he would have got there.
He may have even been told to "take it easy" a bit.
But if that's the case maybe he should have DH'd.
For the record the calf injury was before he went to the WBC … the most recent injury was the left oblique and the initial concern was his swing … and that may be valid (or not).
Quote from MrPadre19 on March 31, 2023, 6:01 amHe will be fine IMO.
I'm guessing if he hadn't just had the leg issue (may not be 100%) and the grass wasn't wet he would have got there.
He may have even been told to "take it easy" a bit.
But if that's the case maybe he should have DH'd.
For the record the calf injury was before he went to the WBC … the most recent injury was the left oblique and the initial concern was his swing … and that may be valid (or not).
Quote from Jeremy Hill on March 31, 2023, 7:58 amI'm not questioning going with Crismatt in that situation after what he did for us as the long man last year. I also think Suarez's debut last year should have taught us not to judge Tapia too harshly for a poor first performance.
Sometimes I do feel like modern bullpens have gotten too structured though. Whatever happened to the fireman reliever? It feels like we put too much emphasis on late game outs and saving the best guys for the late innings. Why not bring one of your best guys in to get out of a jam in the 5th? In this analytical wave the game is under you would think teams would deploy their relievers more situationally. It seems like only a few teams actually do.
I'm not questioning going with Crismatt in that situation after what he did for us as the long man last year. I also think Suarez's debut last year should have taught us not to judge Tapia too harshly for a poor first performance.
Sometimes I do feel like modern bullpens have gotten too structured though. Whatever happened to the fireman reliever? It feels like we put too much emphasis on late game outs and saving the best guys for the late innings. Why not bring one of your best guys in to get out of a jam in the 5th? In this analytical wave the game is under you would think teams would deploy their relievers more situationally. It seems like only a few teams actually do.
Quote from fenn68 on March 31, 2023, 9:37 amQuote from Jeremy Hill on March 31, 2023, 7:58 amI'm not questioning going with Crismatt in that situation after what he did for us as the long man last year. I also think Suarez's debut last year should have taught us not to judge Tapia too harshly for a poor first performance.
Sometimes I do feel like modern bullpens have gotten too structured though. Whatever happened to the fireman reliever? It feels like we put too much emphasis on late game outs and saving the best guys for the late innings. Why not bring one of your best guys in to get out of a jam in the 5th? In this analytical wave the game is under you would think teams would deploy their relievers more situationally. It seems like only a few teams actually do.
Except this is game 1 of 162 ... tied in the 5th inning ... Crismatt was one of the better options out of the pen last season ... and (except for Hader) not sure a better option beyond speculating.
If Hader is the option for any jam early in the game he will be worn down sooner than later plus they have eliminated their shut down closer.
Tapia - Hill - Garcia - Honeywell - Wilson ... any really clearly better 5th inning choices to get out of a jam than Crismatt?
Quote from Jeremy Hill on March 31, 2023, 7:58 amI'm not questioning going with Crismatt in that situation after what he did for us as the long man last year. I also think Suarez's debut last year should have taught us not to judge Tapia too harshly for a poor first performance.
Sometimes I do feel like modern bullpens have gotten too structured though. Whatever happened to the fireman reliever? It feels like we put too much emphasis on late game outs and saving the best guys for the late innings. Why not bring one of your best guys in to get out of a jam in the 5th? In this analytical wave the game is under you would think teams would deploy their relievers more situationally. It seems like only a few teams actually do.
Except this is game 1 of 162 ... tied in the 5th inning ... Crismatt was one of the better options out of the pen last season ... and (except for Hader) not sure a better option beyond speculating.
If Hader is the option for any jam early in the game he will be worn down sooner than later plus they have eliminated their shut down closer.
Tapia - Hill - Garcia - Honeywell - Wilson ... any really clearly better 5th inning choices to get out of a jam than Crismatt?
Quote from MrPadre19 on March 31, 2023, 10:00 amIf we can have "healthy" Hader/Suarez/Pomeranz/Garcia I think it would be very plausible to throw any of them any time after the 5th inning depending on the situation.
If they are all healthy and pitching well any two could close out the game in the 8th/9th innings.
So if you have a 1 run lead in the 6th with 2 on and a strong LH bat coming up....by all means use Pom or even Hader.But I don't think that's BoMels way of handling the Pen.
If we can have "healthy" Hader/Suarez/Pomeranz/Garcia I think it would be very plausible to throw any of them any time after the 5th inning depending on the situation.
If they are all healthy and pitching well any two could close out the game in the 8th/9th innings.
So if you have a 1 run lead in the 6th with 2 on and a strong LH bat coming up....by all means use Pom or even Hader.But I don't think that's BoMels way of handling the Pen.
Quote from MrPadre19 on March 31, 2023, 10:01 amPlus,I think we could have used Hader,or Trevor Hoffman or Jake Peavy against Blackmon and Cron and it wouldn't have mattered.
Those guys just LOVE to see the Padres come up on their schedule!
Plus,I think we could have used Hader,or Trevor Hoffman or Jake Peavy against Blackmon and Cron and it wouldn't have mattered.
Those guys just LOVE to see the Padres come up on their schedule!
Quote from fenn68 on March 31, 2023, 11:13 amQuote from MrPadre19 on March 31, 2023, 10:00 amIf we can have "healthy" Hader/Suarez/Pomeranz/Garcia I think it would be very plausible to throw any of them any time after the 5th inning depending on the situation.
If they are all healthy and pitching well any two could close out the game in the 8th/9th innings.
So if you have a 1 run lead in the 6th with 2 on and a strong LH bat coming up....by all means use Pom or even Hader.But I don't think that's BoMels way of handling the Pen.
I seem to remember from last year Melvin supporting the concept of using the closer in earlier high leverage situations. The IF they are all healthy condition is problematic right now and likely there will be little agreement on the situations that would warrant moving up a closer to an earlier appearance ... especially except for blowouts critical situations come up pretty often and they have built a RP corps to actually pitch.
I could see trying to avoid an end of the game arm if the team is behind (or even tied) in the 6th inning or earlier ... especially if they are one inning arms that will only pitch in at most 81 games in the season.
The is a bit of the what is good for the season may be more important that what is good for an individual game ... especially the first of 162.
Quote from MrPadre19 on March 31, 2023, 10:00 amIf we can have "healthy" Hader/Suarez/Pomeranz/Garcia I think it would be very plausible to throw any of them any time after the 5th inning depending on the situation.
If they are all healthy and pitching well any two could close out the game in the 8th/9th innings.
So if you have a 1 run lead in the 6th with 2 on and a strong LH bat coming up....by all means use Pom or even Hader.But I don't think that's BoMels way of handling the Pen.
I seem to remember from last year Melvin supporting the concept of using the closer in earlier high leverage situations. The IF they are all healthy condition is problematic right now and likely there will be little agreement on the situations that would warrant moving up a closer to an earlier appearance ... especially except for blowouts critical situations come up pretty often and they have built a RP corps to actually pitch.
I could see trying to avoid an end of the game arm if the team is behind (or even tied) in the 6th inning or earlier ... especially if they are one inning arms that will only pitch in at most 81 games in the season.
The is a bit of the what is good for the season may be more important that what is good for an individual game ... especially the first of 162.
Quote from WindsorUK on March 31, 2023, 11:15 amQuote from MrPadre19 on March 31, 2023, 4:44 amI'm going to give Soto the benefit of the doubt on that lack of effort on the flyball in the 6th.
May not still be 100% due to leg issue....plus wet grass....plus 1st game of the season...plus first game in LF at Petco.
But that looked like a lazy lack of effort for sure.
We all saw Hunter Renfroe's catch last night, right? Just saying....
Quote from MrPadre19 on March 31, 2023, 4:44 amI'm going to give Soto the benefit of the doubt on that lack of effort on the flyball in the 6th.
May not still be 100% due to leg issue....plus wet grass....plus 1st game of the season...plus first game in LF at Petco.
But that looked like a lazy lack of effort for sure.
We all saw Hunter Renfroe's catch last night, right? Just saying....
Quote from Jeremy Hill on March 31, 2023, 6:11 pmQuote from fenn68 on March 31, 2023, 9:37 amQuote from Jeremy Hill on March 31, 2023, 7:58 amI'm not questioning going with Crismatt in that situation after what he did for us as the long man last year. I also think Suarez's debut last year should have taught us not to judge Tapia too harshly for a poor first performance.
Sometimes I do feel like modern bullpens have gotten too structured though. Whatever happened to the fireman reliever? It feels like we put too much emphasis on late game outs and saving the best guys for the late innings. Why not bring one of your best guys in to get out of a jam in the 5th? In this analytical wave the game is under you would think teams would deploy their relievers more situationally. It seems like only a few teams actually do.
Except this is game 1 of 162 ... tied in the 5th inning ... Crismatt was one of the better options out of the pen last season ... and (except for Hader) not sure a better option beyond speculating.
If Hader is the option for any jam early in the game he will be worn down sooner than later plus they have eliminated their shut down closer.
Tapia - Hill - Garcia - Honeywell - Wilson ... any really clearly better 5th inning choices to get out of a jam than Crismatt?
Not that it really matters, but it wasn't tied. It was 2-1 in the 5th with 1 out and runners on 1st and 2nd. Obviously you would still have to manage the bullpen and individual workloads. I'm not saying just run Hader out there everyday. I'm saying sometimes it might be better to use a Hader or Garcia (or Suarez or Pomeranz when they're healthy) as a shutdown reliever in a big situation early than saving them to maybe be a shutdown setup guy or closer later. I think we worry too much about who's going to pitch the late innings and not enough about getting to them sometimes. That's how we ended up losing the NLCS without Hader ever getting in a game.
Quote from fenn68 on March 31, 2023, 9:37 amQuote from Jeremy Hill on March 31, 2023, 7:58 amI'm not questioning going with Crismatt in that situation after what he did for us as the long man last year. I also think Suarez's debut last year should have taught us not to judge Tapia too harshly for a poor first performance.
Sometimes I do feel like modern bullpens have gotten too structured though. Whatever happened to the fireman reliever? It feels like we put too much emphasis on late game outs and saving the best guys for the late innings. Why not bring one of your best guys in to get out of a jam in the 5th? In this analytical wave the game is under you would think teams would deploy their relievers more situationally. It seems like only a few teams actually do.
Except this is game 1 of 162 ... tied in the 5th inning ... Crismatt was one of the better options out of the pen last season ... and (except for Hader) not sure a better option beyond speculating.
If Hader is the option for any jam early in the game he will be worn down sooner than later plus they have eliminated their shut down closer.
Tapia - Hill - Garcia - Honeywell - Wilson ... any really clearly better 5th inning choices to get out of a jam than Crismatt?
Not that it really matters, but it wasn't tied. It was 2-1 in the 5th with 1 out and runners on 1st and 2nd. Obviously you would still have to manage the bullpen and individual workloads. I'm not saying just run Hader out there everyday. I'm saying sometimes it might be better to use a Hader or Garcia (or Suarez or Pomeranz when they're healthy) as a shutdown reliever in a big situation early than saving them to maybe be a shutdown setup guy or closer later. I think we worry too much about who's going to pitch the late innings and not enough about getting to them sometimes. That's how we ended up losing the NLCS without Hader ever getting in a game.




