Forum

You need to log in to create posts and topics.

Padres vs Mets Game Thread

As I said before I would like to have Syndergaard but not going to pay with the future for only 2 years of a 4+ ERA that Balsley MIGHT fix to pitch on a 2020-21 team still sorely of a competitive offense and at best making a run at a one game play in Wild Card.

My do not trade list is a bit different on the prospect side:

Gore, Patino, and Morejon ... all are potential top of the rotation (maybe better than Syndergaard) ... don't know which will fail (if any) but a top of the rotation arm is hard to get at a low cost for 6 years. As of now the other options seem for bottom of the rotation types (at best mid). Add those three as top of the rotation with Paddack ... that would be a staff to contend for years.

Campusano ... a catcher that can hit is golden in my mind. He is on track to bump Hedges in 3 years as Hedges hits age / FA time and Mejia has not yet established himself.

Abrams, Edwards ... both clearly appear to have game changer skills with their speed on top of what looks like plus hitting.

====

At the core ... don't really see the motivation to get Syndergaard for 2020-21 unless it is for a package of less than premier prospects ... he would help (maybe) but by himself not put the Padres over the top (see Mets).

Mets don't need to sell now ... Padres don't need to buy now ... no deal now.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Mets are seeking an MLB-ready starter who can step right into the rotation in place of Syndergaard, then some additional high-end prospects after that. The pitcher in question needn’t technically be the headliner in the deal (me:  i.e. Lauer) but presumably the Mets are eyeing a controllable (pre-arbitration) starter as well as premier minor leaguers beyond that point.

That aligns with recent reports from SNY’s Andy Martino (Twitter links), who suggests that the Mets view the Padres, Braves, Dodgers, Rays and Yankees as the best on-paper fits in a deal. The Padres and Braves, in particular, are rich with MLB-ready pitchers in the upper minors, and Sherman lists that pair of organizations as the two that the Mets feel are best-positioned to work out a deal.

..... Sherman & Martino's opinions aren't neccly true, but are logical as Pads & Braves Farm systems look very similar.  As always comes down Seller's valuation on who they like & Buyer's willingness to deal (advantage to Braves being much more in it than us).

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 26, 2019, 11:28 am

As I said before I would like to have Syndergaard but not going to pay with the future for only 2 years of a 4+ ERA that Balsley MIGHT fix to pitch on a 2020-21 team still sorely of a competitive offense and at best making a run at a one game play in Wild Card.

My do not trade list is a bit different on the prospect side:   If MLB Pads are really investing in (close to 80 MM on top 4  $ players) & dramatically improving as a team (undeniable) with fewer "needs", if you essentially aren't willing to consider trading any of your top 100 prospects to improve the team, you're boxing yourself in/overvaluing prospects.

Gore, Patino, and Morejon ... all are potential top of the rotation (maybe better than Syndergaard) ... don't know which will fail (if any) but a top of the rotation arm is hard to get at a low cost for 6 years. As of now the other options seem for bottom of the rotation types (at best mid). Add those three as top of the rotation with Paddack ... that would  COULD be a staff to contend for years.... in 2021 on... after Hosmer turns 30+, etc ... Gore looks like a legit #1.  I don't think that can be said of either Morejon or Patino.  Neither the ideal physical profile (doesn't mean THAT much, but Patino does remind me of Espinoza), and Morejon has had already significant durability issues.

Campusano ... a catcher that can hit is golden in my mind. He is on track to bump Hedges in 3 years as Hedges hits age / FA time and Mejia has not yet established himself.  Kind of agree, but 3 years is an eternity...

Abrams, Edwards ... both clearly appear to have game changer skills with their speed on top of what looks like plus hitting.

Abrams can't/not going anywhere.... but 5 years away a double eternity.  No one not named "Tatis" or "Machado" will be at SS unless both are injured until at least 2024.  Edwards has higher value to a team lacking SS prospects in pipeline/MLB than to Pads, and has hit 1 HR in his career I believe... lack of power  an issue.

====

At the core ... don't really see the motivation to get Syndergaard for 2020-21 unless it is for a package of less than premier prospects ... he would help (maybe) but by himself not put the Padres over the top (see Mets).

Mets don't need to sell now ... FALSE; have stated they intend to & need to to maximize his value avoid injury/performance risk.  Padres don't need to buy now   TRUE ... no deal now.  ???

 

For me is not at some point trading a top 100 prospect ... would not worry about dealing Allen, Baez, even Urias but for the right return to improve the team when they will be in contention ... and that is the core of my issue with Syndergaard.

Only get 2 years at something around $9MM and maybe $12MM .. eating up limited payroll space and using trade chip needed to actually improve the team’s offense which is non-competitive. Plus Syndergaard maybe be good (but his 4+ ERA is not ace level) but even if he is for those two years ... he may just make the Padres a better non-contender.

Either use those top trade chips for offensive improvement or top of the rotation improvement but in both case need a long control piece in return to be there in 3-4 years when the internal pieces arrive and are productive. In a couple of years when the Padres are clearly in the thick of the pennant run ... then consider trading top chips for shorter term improvement. Too soon to take that route in my mind.

So, if the Mets wanted Urias, L.Allen both top 100 coupled with a few lesser prospects for Syndergaard ... might work. Just stay away from the ones that can be elite all-star level for years to come.

If you’re looking for players to help us in 3-4 years we may as well be trading for prospects in AA instead of major leaguers.

I think the point is exactly to “not” do that but to get players to help in 2020 and 2021.

Even if we trade prospects we still have guys who will be coming up in 2022-24 to help.

We need to fix SP and OBP now.

 

Quote from David Nevin on July 26, 2019, 7:26 pm

If you’re looking for players to help us in 3-4 years we may as well be trading for prospects in AA instead of major leaguers.

I think the point is exactly to “not” do that but to get players to help in 2020 and 2021.

Even if we trade prospects we still have guys who will be coming up in 2022-24 to help.

We need to fix SP and OBP now.

 

It becomes a bit of both strategies and the front office needs to make the call on its prospects that they really believe will be a factor in 3-4 years (that could be someone here now or next year given 6 year control) and not use them to add players that will only benefit 2020-21. Different if they are used to add someone who will be here in 3-4 years. Otherwise, deal those good prospects who the Padres may not see high upside for either upgrade in the short run or the long run.

I still think the internal pitching upside is going to make its impact over the next two seasons ... and be around for 5-6 more. Not all that interested in paying a high price for pitchers. Now the current offense is non-competitive and really nothing impactful arriving near term ... if I am going to use the better prospects I want impact hitters first.

Realistically only limited quality prospects to be deployed and a lot of holes to fill in the OF, 2B, C  so need to be judicious in their use.

Need to fight the short term and stay the course for the long term success.

Quote from David Nevin on July 26, 2019, 7:26 pm

If you’re looking for players to help us in 3-4 years we may as well be trading for prospects in AA instead of major leaguers.

I think the point is exactly to “not” do that but to get players to help in 2020 and 2021.

Even if we trade prospects we still have guys who will be coming up in 2022-24 to help.

We need to fix SP and OBP now.

 

YESSS!!  Whether we feel like Pads can compete with LAD in 2020/2021 fact is Mgmt has gone all in to do so...

70 MM to 3 highest paid players + another 8.5 (up to 11) MM to G. Richards.  The commitment has already been made... have to shift the mindset.   Point #1:  It is highly likely Mgmt will push payroll up a little into 20-21....

Point #2:  With < 60 games to go in the season, think focus on the offense is impatient & misguided...  NO ONE has harped on need to improve OBP /decrease K's more than I have.  But the Team is progressing (had nowhere to go but up)... T-24th in AVG, T-23rd in OBP  @ .309 almost 15 pts better than last year.  Another 15 pts puts team squarely average...

Pads have players/combos at all of the positions that are "most concerning":

2B:  Everyone needs to CHILL OUT on Urias.... he is the #20 overall prospect with a 70 hit tool & elite OBP his entire career, PLUS a defensive improvement over Kinsler/Garcia.... JUST.... LET... HIM.... PLAY!! and stop quoting his 20 AB stat line

I'm not against trading for Merrifield, but dumping Urias would kind of be like trading Paddack or Morejon b/c they had 1 bad outing

C:  In the small sample size of shifting to roughly 60/40 Mejia/Hedges starting since Mejia's recall, they are one of the most productive at the position.

OF:  This is the biggest issue from an OBP standpoint, but Margot's dramatic 2nd 1/2 improvement has been encouraging.  I feel the lack of LH CF capable OF all season has been a major detriment... FEELS like need to move one of Reyes or Renfroe in exchange for established LH above avg OBP guy, but easier said than done.  This may be an offseason move where roster is more fundamentally re-structured.

Pen:  Team is obviously looking at tons of guys... again need rest of season to re-evaluate.

I am not dead set on Thor or even SP,  and I get your opinion/argument re: giving up too much in return...but it's frustrating to hear "well we can't trade 7 of our top 8 prospects"...