Quote from Brian Connelly on September 13, 2019, 11:29 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on September 13, 2019, 8:55 pm

The guy I am really excited about is Ismael Mena, who has all of the ability in the world. Plus, with him in right field, CJ Abrams in center and Trammel in left, our OF would be all left handed. Great offset to Machado, Tatis and Urias. Then we could actually hit right handers!

Ummm... yeah, 4 years from now!

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 13, 2019, 11:51 pm

OK, here's a question really seeking opinions on:

Say Padres make this offer to 29 teams:  Myers, Lauer, Ty France, & Michel Baez for token return like a PTBNL & worst guy bumped off other team's 40-man....   How much of Myers' Salary would a highest bidder acquiring team eat on this deal?

3 yrs control of Myers, 5 of Lauer (1 min, 4 Super two), 6 of France & Baez....

Couldn't a non-homer argument be made for eating most of the 3 yrs /61 MM?  All of these guys have SOME value with their youth & long contol

Quote from JasonE135 on September 14, 2019, 12:31 am

None of those guys generate excitement at this point. None will become Tyler Glasnow or Austin Meadows. You may get 1 million for each. Guys have to generate excitement to generate a bidding war. Those guys are far too easy to walk away from.

Quote from fenn68 on September 14, 2019, 4:35 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 13, 2019, 11:51 pm

OK, here's a question really seeking opinions on:

Say Padres make this offer to 29 teams:  Myers, Lauer, Ty France, & Michel Baez for token return like a PTBNL & worst guy bumped off other team's 40-man....   How much of Myers' Salary would a highest bidder acquiring team eat on this deal?

3 yrs control of Myers, 5 of Lauer (1 min, 4 Super two), 6 of France & Baez....

Couldn't a non-homer argument be made for eating most of the 3 yrs /61 MM?  All of these guys have SOME value with their youth & long contol

Actually a pretty good package if we go stat-wise and try to eliminate the negative bias towards Myers and Lauer from most on this site. Keep in mind the buying team is “only”  spending money and not giving up any talent. Still it would work only for a team with money and specific needs (so unlikely).

Myers is basically a 1 WAR type which values out about $8MM/year .... so over 3 years worth $24MM leaving about $37MM overpay to offset.

If you value a top prospect such as Baez at about $8MM ... drop the shortfall to $29MM.

Don’t really see France having much trade value so maybe value at $1MM ... drop shortfall to $28MM.

So it boils down to the other teams’ valuation of Lauer at 24 with less than 2 years experience and decently effective outside of Coors field ... still upside in a league that needs SP. Like him or not he is generating about a 2 WAR and through the arbitration process will get paid under market ... so the differential is an offset to the shortfall and that could be about $28MM.

So, could argue that over the contracts ... a match. Even in 2020, if the package can generate a 3 WAR out of the four ... that exceeds the money committed to them.

Not sure you can find a team that would want to deploy their money for that package even if it technically is equitable .... so maybe the Padres would have to eat some money but not a lot. Key is finding a team that is willing to add that level of payroll and needing an OF ... everyone needs pitching.

From the Padres perspective ... the value of that deal relies on how they deploy the money saved .... maybe then next James Shields, Matt Kemp, Wil Myers? 🙂

Quote from fenn68 on September 14, 2019, 5:04 am

As a complimentary argument .... are the Padres better off keeping Myers (and his $20MM in 2020) and just packaging Lauer, Baez, and France to get a player return? Myers is one of the more productive OF in an unproductive OF and no real assurance the freed $20MM will lure any productive FA.

Dead money is dead money .... so not really all that focused on dealing plus potential just to clear Myers. Plus IF Myers can put a full decent season in 2020, his remaining cost will be less of a burden to find a taker while having to offset less.

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 14, 2019, 8:49 am

FENN, I appreciate the analysis.  Can quibble around the edges (if France is really only worth 1 MM, there's no point in trading him for $ only).  I included France b/c he's buried behind Machado/Hosmer.  He HAS to be more valuable to another team than the Padres.   LAST year's Padres pre-Machado would have fallen all over themselves to acquire THIS year's version of France...

You make some points I was trying to:

• Myers is not worth 20 MM/yr, but is worth SOMETHING
• Long control young SP is worth A LOT, even for a # 4 -5 type

There is ALWAYS risk in FA; better players cost more $.  But I would argue a team with the Padres limited payroll has already absorbed that risk by paying 20 MM/yr to a guy worth 1 WAR...  Everyone knows that's his worth, so the only way to translate that $ into better value (which should buy 2.5 WAR) is to deal from depth to do so.

I included Lauer because I do not see him in the starting rotation in 2021 after Gore & Patino & Morejon have arrived.  Even less so if you acquire by FA or Trade more SP (top of Preller's list by all accounts).  You can't wait until his 3rd year of arbitration to deal him when his value will be low.  Baez same thing; I personally think they're kind of wasting him and should have kept him SP in minors, but his value could be higher elsewhere.

Losing Myers does have risk, probably need a RH version of Martini (Denorfia!) to backfill, but GOOD position players were signing shockingly low 1 year deals into late Feb last ST.  GOOD SP were not.

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 14, 2019, 10:09 am

Agree that Lauer is expendable given the upside of the Padres' young arms ... and on a contender as the #4-5 SP way more valuable than some think. Have to put him into perspective with actual number and alternatives.

Consider in the NL their are arguably 75 SP slots but only 46 pitchers have achieved 130 innings (basically the full timers) ... leaving 29 slots really in need of effective stability. Lauer is one of those 46 ranked #38 in xFIP and with an xFIP just above the league average. Basically he is "average" in the NL.

Now if you are a contender, and every additional win may be just enough to get you in the playoffs (see Phil, OAK, Milw, for example), putting an "average" SP in the #4-5 slot would help to get those extra wins considering the reality of limited quality alternatives. Plus Lauer's profile of work would lead one to believe he would set up the team to win more games than alternatives who are just consistently below average. Consider that over half of Lauer's starts were 2 runs or less (about 15) and a good hitting team would capitalize on that. He 5 more at 3 runs.

Focus is usually on top of the rotation but teams can make the playoffs with the boost of having the best  #4-5 around winning those extra games over the course of 162 ... they do count every win.

Quote from WindsorUK on September 14, 2019, 10:43 am

Myers is who he is. He's going to strikeout A LOT but give him REGULAR AB's( are you listening AG?), he's going to hit around .250, get on base at .330 clip( and steal 20 bases), hit 20+ HR's, and play solid LF/RF.

We could do a lot worse for our $20 million.

Quote from TatisJr on September 14, 2019, 11:46 am

I could see  AJ putting together a package to unload Myers contract. I just hope we hold onto Myers and use the excess prospects to acquire a impact talent. Wil drives me nuts, but I still want to see him succeed here and think he can. Pencil Wil in as the 6 or 7 hitter in left field. He doesn’t belong in center and I don’t want to see him in the 2 hole.  I think Baez and Lauer definitely have value to other teams. France seems more like AAAA type guy to me. There’s a lot of teams that would like Lauer to slot in as 4 or 5.