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$$$ Padres 2020 Payroll

Pads will wind up 2019 around 127 MM in total payroll.

It’s not too hard to look at 2020 by putting all 2019 players under contract or arbitration into 2 groups:

  • Dead $ drops in 2020 by $13.5 MM.  But this drop is offset by a roughly equal increase in salaries to 3 of the highest 6 paid players:  Myers +8.5 MM, G. Richards +1.5 MM and Yates +3.5 MM EST.   This means that:  Dead $ plus the Salaries of 6 highest paid players (Machado, Hosmer, Myers, G. Richards, Yates, & Kinsler) in 2020 is roughly the SAME as 2019.  Just less of the combined amount is “Dead $” (although “Kinsler” will be).
  • There is another “pile” of $ I will call “Not spending on” which is the amount of $ spent on guys in 2019 (less any buyouts) that are not returning.  This amount is about 10.5 MM:   Stammen* (3.25), Makita (1.9), Warren (1.5 Net), Erlin (1.45), Loup (1.0), Mitchell (0.9), Edwards Jr (0.5)

Allocate this 10.5 MM to RAISE in pay only to players entering 1st or 2nd year of Arbitration:       A-2: Garcia;  A-2 (Super 2):  Hedges?  Jankowski?;   A-1:  Margot, Strahm, Perdomo;  A-1 (Super 2):  Renfroe, MAYBE Lamet (2.130 yrs MLB service time right at typical threshold).

I’ll wait for MLB Trade rumors to project Arb salaries for these players, but I believe the 10.5 MM will cover the RAISE to all these guys.  So:  The Salaries of all other Arb eligible & above minimum players after the top 6 in 2020 is roughly the SAME as 2019.   EXCEPT does not include Craig Stammen, who I agree is a strong likelihood to return.  If he (or another RP) does, their salary is probably “absorbed” by Pads HOPEFULLY spending less on Injured List payroll:  7 guys essentially were on IL all year:  Richards, Nix, Kennedy, Cordero, Loup, J. Castillo, & M. Diaz.  This = an “extra” minimum salary guy being on 40-man all year… i.e. 3.5 MM spent.

So the Summary is:  Padres 2020 Payroll even re-signing Stammen, looks like it’s very close to 2019 Payroll.  2021 looks favorable too with 20 MM+ coming off books:  Olivera/Kemp, Kinsler, & G. Richards.  Could be 25 MM+ if Yates not extended… but losing Richards (& Yates?).  Small arb class that year headed by Lucchesi & Lauer.

I don’t see how Ownership could possibly LOWER payroll for team clearly pushing to contend.  Seems far more likely they will raise payroll at least nominally to maybe 135 MM?  Could see as high as 150 MM, but think they’d want to see proof of a GOOD team (not a projection) before doing that.

Hard to see logic in adding much in payroll for 2020 (and definitely not "long term" commitments) ... agree that they need to really know what they have before making any major add. Then be strategic as to filling the biggest need then.

They also have to look ahead to some of the young players hitting arbitration ... likely Paddack and Tatis are Super 2 in 2021 and if they continue to build on their 2019 ... should be a big set of Arb decisions from 2021 - 2024. If Tatis is that good using Lindor as a benchmark .... Lindor is getting $10.6MM in his 4th season with two more arbs to go. Add the Luchessi, Lamet, Mejia, Margot, et. al. will all be bouncing off league minimum. Myers' $20MM does not come off until 2023. Padres might get to $140-150MM with the current players.

The window that opens up in 2023 with Myers' departure could be eaten up quickly if the Padres want to extend Paddack and Tatis (or any of the others) plus Gore / Patino, at a minimum, should be moving into the arbitration ladder (if that exists in the same way post the new CBA).

Also in 2023 Hosmer's salary drops form $21MM to $13MM so that helps and that drop may trigger him opting out ... sort of depends on the market in 2023 and his 2022 performance but $13MM has a good chance of being under market. I would not count not he opt out.

Looking as though the Padres really need to have the league minimum prospects deliver or if they deal ... deal for league minimum types.

I'm hoping any add for 2020 is in locking up Tatis and maybe a 2nd/3rd tier Starter like Hamels.

Then,in 2021 when Olivera/Kinsler/Richards drop off we not only replace that amount but add an additional 15-20 mil and

really "go for it".

We need to get to .500 next year and maybe even be in the WC hunt in Aug/Sept so Ownership will agree with me

and spend in the 2020 off season to contend.

It will help having a young rotation all making less than just one Ace on other teams.

Paddack/Patino/Gore/Lamet/Luchessi/Lauer in 2021?

Or also with a  veteran we sign this offseason.(Hamels 2 year deal?)

The rotation will always be in flux. I love the idea of Paddack/Gore/Patino/Lamet making up the regular heart of our rotation. By 2021 we will also have Morejon and Bolanos vying for #5 and #6. I see Lucchesie and Lauer as temporary innings eaters unless they take a major step forward. By 2021 we will have the next set of innings eating soft tossing lefties in Weathers and Cantillo ready for the rotation. That can free up Lauer and Lucchesie to be secondary pieces in a trade for a good, needed piece.

That doesn't even mention Quantrill. I see him having a better career than Lamet. We have so much, hopefully these guys can build real value in the next year or so so one or two of them can be good enough to be the headliner in a trade. Let's wait it out. See who has real value before we start trading guys.

I just don’t see Quantrill better than Lamet.

Lamet has much better stuff......just needs to learn “to pitch”.

IMO Lamet is a #2 Starter waiting in the wings to learn how to be a #2.

 

 

Lament has better stuff no doubt. Quantrill is a better pitcher. His stuff is very impressive too. His slider is much better than I expected it to be.

https://www.mlb.com/news/ranking-top-2020-mlb-free-agent

This kind of worries me but the team may JUST be able to do it. We need an ace, sign one so we don't lose any prospects. Either Cole or Strasburg would be a MAJOR financial commitment. However, all of our best young prospects are having their clocks start this year or next. That gives us 5 years before we have to sign guys like Tatis, Paddack and Gore. I believe that is also when Myers and Hosmer will come off the books. That may make it workable if ownership is willing to up the payroll by 25 to 30 million. I don't really want the team to do it, but it seems like they want to. I don't think we will get $25 to $30 million dollar a year value for however many years these guys will want(i am guessing 6 to 8), but this would definitely beat trading for an ace. Maybe this is what we need. I don't necessarily like it, but it would excite me and I could live with it.

Quote from David Nevin on September 12, 2019, 6:18 pm

I just don’t see Quantrill better than Lamet.

Lamet has much better stuff......just needs to learn “to pitch”.

IMO Lamet is a #2 Starter waiting in the wings to learn how to be a #2.

 

 

It is that pesky "just needs to learn to pitch" that is always the concern ... not that easy apparently since few pitchers actually know how to pitch (or care) these days.

Quantrill has quality "stuff" but he too needs to learn how to pitch .... and BOTH need to improve command / consistency.

Whomever achieves the improvements is the better option ... just don't know whom.

For now, Lamet is already an average to above average ML SP with a 4.06 ERA / .227 BAA / 1.26 WHIP ... surprising me given his "quick" return from TJ. Should be a lock on a 2020 SP slot (with Paddack and Lucchesi) .... the other two should be the question (don't consider Richards a lock yet).

A.J. Cassavell has a piece on the Padres website discussing the need for improvement against RHP (likely adding a LHH).  The team's wRC+ vs. LHP is 105 (above average and playoff quality) but vs. RHP a lowly 85 worthy of a non-contender.

He suggests getting the LHH hitting presence is why they dealt Reyes (for LHH Trammel), called up Naylor to replace Reyes, and claimed Martini. Should be a focus on off season moves.

In the winter he suggests that FA Markakis and Dickerson might be of interest .... both will cost some money (but not a lot) or needing a long term deal which fits the Padres. Some question as to whether either would sign with the Padres over their current team (or others) ... signing either is not a slam dunk.

Trade is an option but he had no "targets". From my view, not really a lot that may be on the market at a "fair price" and create some impact for the Padres. I have no issue dealing from the prospect base ... just avoid the "high ceiling" prospect that the Padres will need to competed (e.g. Gore, Patino, Trammel, some others) .... but with the prospect depth and willing to take on some payroll MIGHT get away with a deal based on volume / payroll relief.

Maybe the Padres get lucky on a LHH add ... but a fair chance we see massive platooning in the OF since both Margot and Renfroe are extremely ineffective vs. RHP (actually Myers is notables better that those two vs. RHP).

Since about 70-80% of the ABs come against RHP ... that has to be addressed if the Padres want to contend.