Quote from Brian Connelly on September 13, 2019, 8:19 am

My takeaway from the analysis that 2020 payroll even with Stammen (or similar) back is very similar to 2019 payroll is a double-edged sword:   The GOOD is that the increases they're facing-- basically Myers + Arb guys-- are already covered; no built in payroll rise.  The BAD is there really isn't a lot of flexibility; that die was cast with the Myers extension + especially Hosmer & Machado.

The only other "around the edges" move/s that might be made would be trading Hedges (maybe 2.5 MM +) & Jankowski (1.2 MM+).  Combined, that 's maybe getting another decent Stammen type (Adam Warren cost 2.5 MM this yr).

So that makes THE question this:  How high is Ownership willing to go on total payroll to add a SP?  The answer to that question heavily influences if the team HAS to figure out a way to trade Wil Myers to clear room to do so... MUCH more on that later

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 13, 2019, 8:37 am

Quote from fenn68 on September 13, 2019, 5:59 am

I still would avoid the big contract SP. First, that is the strength of the Padres prospects ... bet on them to fill that need at a low cost and use the money on offense. Second, Padres can afford another BIG contract mistake that goes for years. Pitchers create a bigger risk of injury / regression than hitters ... put the money bet on hitters. Remember Shields. Boston has to be questioning the major adds of Price (who fluctuates between good - bad - injured) or even Sale (growing injury concerns). Sometimes it works ... Scherzer, Verlander ... but the odds are bad and the price will be very high given many big money teams in contention will be seeking impact SP.

I could not feel more strongly that an Ace #1-2 SP who is unquestioned top of rotation & # innings at 30 MM AAV is a LESSER risk than an aging FORMER Ace SP who is now a "solid innings eater" with a 4.25 ERA, projects as a #3 or 4 SP in Pads current rotation &  in 1-2 years might be their #5, but would STILL cost 12-15 MM AAV.

Quote from fenn68 on September 13, 2019, 10:02 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 13, 2019, 8:37 am

Quote from fenn68 on September 13, 2019, 5:59 am

I still would avoid the big contract SP. First, that is the strength of the Padres prospects ... bet on them to fill that need at a low cost and use the money on offense. Second, Padres can afford another BIG contract mistake that goes for years. Pitchers create a bigger risk of injury / regression than hitters ... put the money bet on hitters. Remember Shields. Boston has to be questioning the major adds of Price (who fluctuates between good - bad - injured) or even Sale (growing injury concerns). Sometimes it works ... Scherzer, Verlander ... but the odds are bad and the price will be very high given many big money teams in contention will be seeking impact SP.

I could not feel more strongly that an Ace #1-2 SP who is unquestioned top of rotation & # innings at 30 MM AAV is a LESSER risk than an aging FORMER Ace SP who is now a "solid innings eater" with a 4.25 ERA, projects as a #3 or 4 SP in Pads current rotation &  in 1-2 years might be their #5, but would STILL cost 12-15 MM AAV.

I take NEITHER option. Don’t want to spend on a veteran pitcher for 2020 and certainly not on any long term commitment.

Spending on a position player is the better risk play (and arguable the bigger need over the next few years) but don’t see anyone out there worth the bid.

Should add that I don’t see the Padres having all that much to commit in payroll focused on only one player ... too many holes to fill.

Quote from JasonE135 on September 13, 2019, 1:42 pm

I think the payroll is going to stay where it is. They keep talking about trading for guys but not about signing guys. I don't want an ace either. The Padres just keep talking about needing to get one. We cannot make any trades until some of our guys prove themselves. Any team is going to want a haul of prospects.

Quote from WindsorUK on September 13, 2019, 3:52 pm

I think Stammen is gone, and believe Margot and Hedges still have trade value....to someone. Myers is tough to move so imagine we'll be paying him $20 million. Our entire pitching staff should be relatively low paid next year, as we try to figure out which of our young guns are real gun slingers!

Who makes more - Travis or Manny? Still think Freddy has more value for us - LHH, +CF, A++ speed. May not have Manny's pop but can certainly top his OBP if he gets consistent AB's.....which is one of the reasons I'd like to see AG gone next year.

Quote from JasonE135 on September 13, 2019, 5:04 pm

Their career numbers are very similar: Jankowski-.240/.318/.319

Margot-.252/.305/.400. Both give us excellent outfield defense, but neither is a starting quality bat. I think they should just platoon for now until Trammell gets here. They keep hoping Margot will figure out right handers, but at some point they just have to give up. I think we will be keeping Margot, Hedges, Stammen and Myers. Myers we can't trade without including good prospects. Hedges and Margot only have value as backups. Between the two of them they can net us a decent backup. No more than that. Stammen has value. He wasn't great, but he got the job done and he will be relatively cheap. We can't be subtracting reliable arms from our pen at this point.

Quote from fenn68 on September 13, 2019, 5:56 pm

Given the current options .... I would support a Margot - Jankowski CF in 2020. Together they would probably be average offensively for a CF but plus defensively. Individually though Jankowski can’t hit LHP (really bad) and Margot is pretty bad vs. RHP but Jankowski is good vs. RHP and Margot is good against LHP.

Actually platoon the two the Padres may have (for a CF) average offense and plus defense netting a plus CF. Padres need all the net plus positions they can get.

Really don’t want to see Myers back in CF (still think they should just leave him alone in LF) and willing to wait and see if Cordero and rebound from 2 years of injuries and not get injured again but as I recall Cordero is not a good defensive CF ... so not really hyped on his CF future.

=====

Is Trammel a decent CF? Saw one write-up suggesting he should end up in LF .... weak arm?

Quote from BoosterSD on September 13, 2019, 6:20 pm

Barring a trade or a FA signing, I think that best OF we can hope for next season is mostly what you said Fenn. Myers left alone in LF, and a platoon of Margot/Jank in CF, and Renfroe/Cordero in RF. I dont think Cordero has the experience for CF, and Naylor should not patrol an OF any bigger than a Little League field.

Quote from JasonE135 on September 13, 2019, 8:48 pm

Cordero has 30fps speed. He was the 3rd fastest outfielder in mlb a couple years ago. He has all the athletic ability to be a gold glove centerfielder, he just needs to learn how to get good jumps and take good routes. He needs to learn, probably in the minor leagues. But yes, that is what our outfield will look like next year and yes it is imperfect. If we are lucky Trammell can get here by the end of next year and show a good bat with good power. While his weak arm does not make him ideal in center, hopefully he can hold it down until CJ Abrams gets here. At that time he can move to left where he belongs.