Quote from LynchMob on March 13, 2019, 3:31 pm

Quote from 3fingersplit on March 9, 2019, 3:41 pm

Interesting article about Opening Day Pitcher.......Chris Paddack on MLB.com

https://www.mlb.com/news/chris-paddack-targets-padres-opening-day-start

Innings in the spring aside.....which he needs to get to be able to go 5 plus as a starter...this would be a awesome story and maybe set the tone for this year....Whoo Whoo

 

Article as padres.com sez ... No pitcher has made his big league debut by starting a team's season opener since 1943.

Quote from 84padres on March 14, 2019, 4:56 am

Paddack was awesome again last night 4 innings 6 Ks . He really should be the opening day starter but too much too soon. I would like to see him in El Paso but he deserves to make the roster, he is by far our best pitcher in spring training

Quote from fenn68 on March 14, 2019, 6:44 am

Only ST but except for Myers ... a lot of questions about the other candidates for OF slots and not sure how much ST results weighs against 2018 performance and perceived potential. However, ST is not boosting the stock for Renfroe or Cordero ... and IF it is important to the Padres to get off to a good start now that they added Machado and are excited about Paddack and Strahm strengthening the SP ... can they really experiment with them in a perpetually change OF mix? Consider these ST stats:

Reyes (32 AB) ... 886 OPS

Margot (31 AB) ... 805 OPS (maybe his offensive demise is an overreaction to 2018)

Myers (22 AB) ... 643 OPS

Cordero (22 AB) ... 564 OPS

Renfroe (29 AB) ... 529 OPS (swing like the old Renfroe ... all out / big launch angle)

Not sure the wisdom of putting Myers in CF, benching Margot to get Renfroe's bat in the line-up while hurting both LF and CF defense and base running. Not even sure the wisdom of having Renfroe on the bench when getting him in the line-up takes a more productive bat out of the line-up.

It may be interesting to see what happens to Renfroe now that some real OF competition exists ... he is already about 27 so maybe not a lot of development to be projected and seems to be a one dimensional corner OF (SLG) ... a lot of that profile in baseball.

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 14, 2019, 12:42 pm

Quote from 84padres on March 14, 2019, 4:56 am

Paddack was awesome again last night 4 innings 6 Ks . He really should be the opening day starter but too much too soon. I would like to see him in El Paso but he deserves to make the roster, he is by far our best pitcher in spring training

Good article on Pads website has odds of being in rotation (prior to last night's outing) as:  100% Lucchesi, 95% Lauer, 80% Paddack, 70% Strahm....

That outing has to put Paddack around 90%; simply earning it.  I would put Strahm > 70% already too, but reasonable that he has to demonstrate across multiple starts that he can hold his stuff into the 4th-5th inning as he stretches out.

They've got Erlin just slightly favored over Nix for 5th spot: 50% to 45%.  I would definitely prefer a RHP so not 4 LH SP's.  IMO Quantrill (only 5%) is the dark horse to watch; he is almost a year older than Nix.  If he can string together some good outings, it wouldn't surprise me.

Quote from Cptjack on March 15, 2019, 5:27 am

Quote from fenn68 on March 14, 2019, 6:44 am

Only ST but except for Myers ... a lot of questions about the other candidates for OF slots and not sure how much ST results weighs against 2018 performance and perceived potential. However, ST is not boosting the stock for Renfroe or Cordero ... and IF it is important to the Padres to get off to a good start now that they added Machado and are excited about Paddack and Strahm strengthening the SP ... can they really experiment with them in a perpetually change OF mix? Consider these ST stats:

Reyes (32 AB) ... 886 OPS

Margot (31 AB) ... 805 OPS (maybe his offensive demise is an overreaction to 2018)

Myers (22 AB) ... 643 OPS

Cordero (22 AB) ... 564 OPS

Renfroe (29 AB) ... 529 OPS (swing like the old Renfroe ... all out / big launch angle)

Not sure the wisdom of putting Myers in CF, benching Margot to get Renfroe's bat in the line-up while hurting both LF and CF defense and base running. Not even sure the wisdom of having Renfroe on the bench when getting him in the line-up takes a more productive bat out of the line-up.

It may be interesting to see what happens to Renfroe now that some real OF competition exists ... he is already about 27 so maybe not a lot of development to be projected and seems to be a one dimensional corner OF (SLG) ... a lot of that profile in baseball.

Except for Myers? Where do people constantly pull these exemptions from for him? Myers has clearly had a worse bat than Renfroe this spring. He's taken a few more ball 4's, but hasn't been driving jack.

Quote from fenn68 on March 15, 2019, 9:42 am

The "except for Myers" more reflects the longer ML record and the reality of this inflated contract ... plus his baserunning / defense (at least in LF) is just better than the alternatives.

Since the Padres have been rumored trying to move Myers for the past year or so ... not seeing the Padres giving him a pass ... just need someone to clearly bump him ... Renfroe - Reyes - Cordero have not yet shown that over time.

Over their careers Myers and Renfroe are about the same wRC+ with OBP going to Myers and SLG going to Renfroe but Myers tips the scale in OF defense and baserunning. It is up to Renfroe to show over a longer time that he is more than a one dimensional slugger. If they both played 162 games in LF ... and tracked their career performance .... Myers should deliver the better WAR.

Since BOTH frustrate me ... not sure the differences are all that compelling and at some point the Padres need to consider an upgrade over BOTH if they want to contend. Myers at 28 and Renfroe at 27 likely have peaked on their development cycles so probably what you see is what you get going forward. Naylor or Cordero ... both LHH both much "younger" could be the 2020 upgrades (for now I am ceding RF to Reyes).

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 15, 2019, 10:29 am

since BOTH frustrate me ... not sure the differences are all that compelling

... well you can't trade Myers for anything if he can't beat out Renfroe!

One of the secondary but important reasons I felt Pads should try for a big multi-player trade was this inevitable issue that some of the most obvious trade assets like MLB OF & C have a lot of potential to lose trade value at the beginning of the season.

Quote from fenn68 on March 15, 2019, 10:57 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 15, 2019, 10:29 am

since BOTH frustrate me ... not sure the differences are all that compelling

... well you can't trade Myers for anything if he can't beat out Renfroe!

One of the secondary but important reasons I felt Pads should try for a big multi-player trade was this inevitable issue that some of the most obvious trade assets like MLB OF & C have a lot of potential to lose trade value at the beginning of the season.

I expect that neither Myers nor Renfroe have much trade value on their own. Myers' contract is an anchor and frankly there are a lot of Renfroe types (all SLG and nothing much else) around. The issue is the lack of buyers for these models. So if they are looking for some talent in return ... they need a desperate buyer and be willing to deal for a high upside / A ball prospect ... that is how they got Paddack, Naylor, Tatis, Ruiz, Olivares.

Renfroe is the easier deal given the low cost / 5 years control if Preller does not over reach on a return. Myers is not given the contract and likely the Padres not wanting to eat money without getting a ML piece in return (which is unlikely). Best way to move Myers (and his contract) is to not seek a return (as I recall TOR went that route with Vernon Wells and Rios) ... not easy but if they were willing to go with Renfroe (for now) and had an idea how to deploy the extra payroll space in 2020-2022 might make sense if they could find a buyer.

Reality sets in and not seeing any chance to deal Myers .... and not see a future where all the corner OF exist all playing part-time ... so ??????? has to go.

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 15, 2019, 10:59 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 15, 2019, 10:29 am

since BOTH frustrate me ... not sure the differences are all that compelling

... well you can't trade Myers for anything if he can't beat out Renfroe!

One of the secondary but important reasons I felt Pads should try for a big multi-player trade was this inevitable issue that some of the most obvious trade assets like MLB OF & C have a lot of potential to lose trade value at the beginning of the season.

Myers clearly MUCH > athlete than Renfroe MUCH > athlete than Reyes.  But I & sounds like staff are really impressed by Reyes' ability to make adjustmentsnat MLB level; he's simply shown that he MUCH more quickly than Renfroe "got" that he had to change his approach & did... at a younger absolute age and less MLB AB than Renfroe, who really didn't until the 2nd 1/2 of last season > 500 MLB AB in.  Renfroe projects more easily as an everyday guy with his build & arm, but I just don't know if he will ever stop limiting his value to a team with whatever his OBP ceiling is.

All these guys should benefit a LOT from Machado hitting in front of them.  P's are going to have to pick their poison.