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Opening Day Lineup

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We may end us seeing a 5.5 man rotation given all the young arms and clearly no established starter that they have to pitch every fifth day. Actually all of this group could benefit from a shorten workload over the season.

I guess if they creatively use the extra off days this season with an ample supply of young SP with minor league options they can control the innings for Lucchesi - Lauer - Strahm - Paddack while bouncing Erlin - Perdomo - Nix - Kennedy in and out of the 5th slot and between RP and the 6th slot. I guess I shouldn't right off Mitchell yet ... yes I should.

At some point L.Allen and Quantrill will factor in ... Quantrill had 148 innings last year and L.Allen had 148.2 .... neither should have any innings limit issue. So maybe we are more at issue for the first half of the season with reinforcements arriving in the 2nd half. Maybe even Avila.

If nothing else we will get variety. More if one (or more) of those top 4 gets injured or just tanks.

 

When it boils down to a whole season the entire staff will throw about 1450 innings for an entire season. If you figure that the SD bull pen can handle innings 6-9 or 6-8 if you have the lead at home, that leaves approximately 750-800 innings for a group of SP to handle. If they perform, Luchessi and Lauer should both be able approximately 160 innings each, since they both tossed about 135 last year. That leaves about 450-480 for a combination of Strahm, Paddock, Quantrill, Perdomo, and etc..

Quote from David Nevin on March 7, 2019, 10:17 am

Unless we're adding Kuechel we may as well throw Perdomo/Mitchell/Erlin/ out there to "eat up innings" if we aren't going to compete anyway.

I have a feeling none of them will be with us this time next year anyway....."use em up"!

lol

 

Well that might be an effective STARTER every 5th day... Perdomo usually dominates 1st 3 innings..then ERLIN or MITCHELL can pitch 3 alternating every 5th day so the other can be used in relief in between... Works for me

Here's what AJC @ mlb.com had on March 6th ...

https://www.mlb.com/padres/news/projecting-padres-25-man-roster

CATCHERS
Austin Hedges
Francisco Mejia

INFIELDERS
Eric Hosmer
Ian Kinsler
Luis Urias
Manny Machado
Jose Pirela
Greg Garcia

OUTFIELDERS
Wil Myers
Hunter Renfroe
Franmil Reyes
Manuel Margot
Franchy Cordero

STARTING PITCHERS
Joey Lucchesi
Eric Lauer
Jacob Nix
Chris Paddack
Robbie Erlin or Matt Strahm

RELIEF PITCHERS
Kirby Yates
Craig Stammen
Adam Warren
Aaron Loup
Robert Stock
Phil Maton
Robbie Erlin or Matt Strahm

INJURED LIST
RHP Garrett Richards
RHP Dinelson Lamet
RHP Miguel Diaz
LHP Jose Castillo
OF Travis Jankowski

Interesting article about Opening Day Pitcher.......Chris Paddack on MLB.com

https://www.mlb.com/news/chris-paddack-targets-padres-opening-day-start

Innings in the spring aside.....which he needs to get to be able to go 5 plus as a starter...this would be a awesome story and maybe set the tone for this year....Whoo Whoo

 

@ 3/9  that projected 25-man looks pretty close, esp for position players:

Can't keep Mejia off roster.  Outside chance they have Urias in AAA with Tatis, Jr. but doubt it.

Strahm looked utterly filthy yesterday; guys like Erlin & Nix will never have that stuff.   Lucchesi, Paddack, Strahm top 3.  Extremely likely Lauer #4.  #5 looks wide open; hopefully someone steps up & claims it.

Yates, Stammen, Warren, Loup.  Maton.  #6 looks like Wingenter over Stock.  #7 Very likely Erlin in that key long man role unless no one else claims #5 spot...

With a couple of weeks to go ... a lot of time for injuries and some housecleaning deals by Preller to change the mix.

With what is currently shaping up as Myers - Margot - Reyes - Cordero as the OF core and Hosmer - Kinsler - Urias - Machado - Garcia the INF core (and assuming Tatis starts in AAA) might boil down initially to Renfroe vs. Pirela and the other when Tatis is added. If not on opening day ... soon after the will have the 13 pitchers / 12 position player configuration so those debates are inevitable.

Mejia should be on the 25 man roster ... he is hitting even though it is ST (and Hedges is not) plus he provides a LHH in a RHH roster ... optioning him and adding a non-roster Stewart causes an offsetting 40 man move that may be needed for Tatis and L.Allen .... and maybe most important for Mejia's development he gets to be coached by Barajas on game calling and defensive techniques which should be more useful than being in AAA.

SP is shaping up to be Lucchesi - Lauer - Paddack - Strahm - then who? Mitchell - Perdomo - Nix have not shown much in ST ... Kennedy has arm fatigue and will not be ready .... Erlin maybe (but not that effective as a SP) or will be get surprised by L.Allen (effective in AA/AAA last season with 148 innings) and a top prospect. Needs to pitch effective today to open that door.

Preller really does not have an issue with promoting a player if he is "ready" (see Lucchesi last year). Door is open for L.Allen for him to walk through.

https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-san-diego-padres/

Currently has this for rotation ...

THU MAR 28                       SF           J. Lucchesi* vs M. Bumgarner*

FRI MAR 29                         SF           C. Paddack vs J. Samardzija

SAT MAR 30                        SF           M. Strahm* vs D. Holland*

SUN MAR 31                       SF           E. Lauer* vs D. Rodriguez

MON APR 01                       ARZ        B. Mitchell vs M. Kelly   

L.Allen certainly didn’t help his cause today.

Shame.

 

Interview with Fowler this a.m. ... nothing spectacular but still interesting info.

1. Preller has been making calls on deals ... nothing happening .... other teams' asking prices are just way too high. Did say that it does not mean that Preller will not keep search for deals during the season if they make sense.

2. He seems to think the 25 man / 40 man rosters are basically determined.

3. Some discussion on the union / labor situation. What caught my attention was his putting some specific "numbers" on what we have speculated upon on the "lower" contract issue. First, post-PED age 32 is now the new 36 of the PED era and by reviewing analytics they see that 75% of the WAR is produced by players in their first 6 years (control years) yet 75% of the salaries are going to players in their 7th year and beyond. Clearly not pay for performance but pay for past performance with usually someone else. Expect that to be a major issue in the next CBA negotiations. Fowler did speculate that there will be a growing shift to team / players negotiating deals that buy out the later control years (maybe arb 5 / 6) and provide an extension period.

On point #3 .... that may be good for fans of local teams where their team's stars get to stay long term. Also, might do a lot to relegate the FA market to the fringe players or the over the hill veterans. Maybe that also enhances the activity in the trade markets as the only real source for major improvements.

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