Quote from Brian Connelly on March 6, 2019, 1:25 pm

Quote from fenn68 on March 5, 2019, 8:26 pm

The transition from "if" to "when" Mitchell gets DFA'd is accelerating!

At the same time the odds of Paddack on the 25 man is improved (especially they way they are praising him) ... this year's Lucchesi as a starter from Day 1.

Since that still only gets me Lucchesi - Lauer - Strahm - Paddack, a 5th starter is still open with I guess Nix - Perdomo - Kennedy - Erlin as 40 man roster types have the inside track but potentially a DFA of Mitchell creates a spot for L.Allen or, long shot Quantrill.  A lot can happen in 3 weeks.

A month or so before ST I felt Pads had to give Mitchell a month = 4-5 starts in regular season to really make a judgement and buy time/innings for Paddack, etc....  but that was before Machado.

I get it's "just" ST, but it is for everyone.  If Nick Margevicius can manage to hold his own and throw strikes, Mitchell should be held to that standard too.  I'm guessing he's got one more ST start; another result like the last 2 = DFA.

I hope the Pads make the playoffs in 2019 as much or more than anyone, but they would be risking the career of Paddack to go past 135 maybe 150 IP... even if they did make the playoffs, who the #*@*$ is SP/rotation by then?

Pads are in a rock/hard place:  Need another SP much more now since Machado, but trading most obvious "surplus" asset = F.Reyes or Renfroe would likely net back... a top 100 AA SP; so no point (plus risk of trading the "wrong" guy).  Think the ship has sailed on a mega-trade for Kluber, etc... still a very small % chance, but would be pretty disruptive to 25-man in short run.  Could definitely see this re-visited at Trade deadline though, depending how Pads & Indians look then.  So really the 3 options are:

1)  Go with best 5 and don't worry (yet) about IP limits or service time... hope to hang around NL West/WC race & address at deadline?  Could trade for a rental guy depending on circumstance.

2)  Add a waiver claim at final cuts for a 1 month audition as 5th SP/7th guy in bullpen to try to squeeze Paddack's & Allen's service time & innings to where they would have greater availability later in season

3)  Capitulate & sign (soon!) Gio Gonzales or someone else to simply fill 1 of the 5 spots & be a reliable innings eater.

Arguments for all, but I personally feel it is really detrimental to current staff of all young guys to expect them to pitch "over their heads" as far as where they are in the rotation.   Feel any SP with any degree of experience would be an asset to the young SP's beyond their ERA/WHIP.   Can't shake disaster waiting to happen feeling with current "depth" due to lack of experience.

Quote from fenn68 on March 6, 2019, 2:44 pm

Seems as though consensus is Paddack will get about 130 innings in 2019. However since he appears to be clearly one of the top 5 SP going into 2019 ... why "waste" any of those innings in the minor leagues? Plus for his development, he is better served working against ML hitters at this stage than AAA.

So, how to "control" his innings in the ML environment?

1. The Strasburg Method: starts the season with the Padres ... pitch him in a normal game plan ... shut him down when he reaches 130 innings. WASH got criticized for that plan because they were in playoff contention .... will that be an issue with the Padres? That may be in mid - August ... by then they may be ready to audition another wave of young SP ... Allen, Nix, Quantrill, even Morejon or Baez and maybe Lamet is ready to return.

2. 130 innings at 5 innings per start is 26 starts ... so that would have him just skipping about 7 starts during the season (using a long RP for spot starts or creatively using the off days during the season or inserting a 6th starter a few times to help all the young arms).

3. Using creatively the injured list (oblique / hamstring / tired arm / etc.) to skip some of those scheduled start

4. Mid-Season option to the minors to "work on something" with very limited innings ... basically a rest break.

Basically not that hard to control a SP these days to 130 innings ... especially with the focus on the bullpen and SP not going much beyond 5 innings anyway.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on March 6, 2019, 3:49 pm

Or,use the Mr.P method and piggyback Paddack and Strahm to limit both.

3-4 innings each every 5 days.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 6, 2019, 10:44 pm

Dead horse territory... but if you project out perfect health and performance--insanely reckless-- among the SP candidates, you still end up with max IP issues.  The "get a look at the young guys" argument really holds less water than it did "P.M" (pre-Manny); Pads are now spending 68.5 MM this year, 78.5+ MM next year on their top 4 guys... ostensibly to win?  And one of those 4 guys will "block" one of the young SP's (of which there will be even more) next year too... so why not this year when we need the depth so much more than 2020 when we'll have (innings limited) Garrett Richards plus Lamet back?

I just don't get the argument not to spend (not our $) 5? 7? 9? MM to not only buy IP, but HELP preserve arms / development / stretch IP for all the young guys we will be counting on in 2020.  If you take the "long" view; gaining an extra year control of Paddack, Logan Allen... could actually make $$ in the deal!  Adding a guy who could give 160, 180 mediocre but reliable IP leaves PLENTY of innings to go around for young arms in Pads specific situation with so many guys limited.

Quote from fenn68 on March 7, 2019, 8:47 am

Although getting a veteran innings eater makes sense in 2019 ... just not seeing the FA options out there IF you want to only go 1 year to avoid any future dead money play, keep the cost to under $10MM, and be comfortable that he is actually going to be more effective than mix / match the bodies that can be shuffled up / down to control innings.

Here is what is left on the FA market (2018 innings / ERA):

Keuchel (204.2 / 3.74) ... still holding out for a long term deal nearing $20MM/yr ... if he drops he will sign with Houston

Shields (204.2 / 4.53) ... well he gives the innings but not sure how his time in SD sits with the FO and no idea if he would take a low salary

Gio Gonzalez (171.0 / 4.21) ... was looking for a multi-year for good money ... if he drops a bit look for a number of teams (NYY, OAK, LAA, etc.) rushing in

Marco Gonzalez (166.2 / 4.00) ... first season over 100 innings and historically not effective

Bartolo Colon (146.1 / 5.78) ... at this point more a side show than a ML pitcher

Y. Gallardo (94.1 / 6.39) ... just bad

E. Jackson (92.0 / 3.33) ... did not pitch the innings and why has no one signed him?

C. Tillman (26.2 / 10.46) ... perpetually injured and under performing.

Not going multi-year > $10MM on Keuchel or Gio Gonzalez which they will get from some other team.

Of the rest ... control the innings on the young Padres' pitchers and just use a creative mix of call-ups of starters and relievers ... may not be pretty at some points but options are limited.

Quote from fenn68 on March 7, 2019, 9:26 am

Quote from David Nevin on March 6, 2019, 3:49 pm

Or,use the Mr.P method and piggyback Paddack and Strahm to limit both.

3-4 innings each every 5 days.

 

That would limit the innings but is that the best way to develop either Paddack or Strahm as SP? At least with them starting for 5 innings they get to go through the opposition line-up into their 3rd ABs forcing them to use / develop that sequencing and 3rd pitch to be effective in the future. Might argue that getting the up to pitching deeper in the game helps them more than pitching the shorten innings per game but a full season.

From the Padres perspective, not sure they have the luxury at the start of the season to not have both as SP (and cover with RP). Lucchesi - Lauer - Paddack/Strahm - ????????? for the last 2 spots. Plus burning both every 5th day means they will only have 11 pitchers for the other 4 games ... 2 being started by lesser arms .... RP will get burned out by June 1.

With any of the young arms the dual objective is to keep them healthy and accelerate the development ... probably done by strategically inserting some lesser arms during (or at the end) of the season to control innings. I expect to see starts for Erlin, Nix, Kennedy, even Avila early because they are on the 40 man then later some non-roster arms are added ... Allen and Quantrill and maybe even a PTNL.

Quote from WindsorUK on March 7, 2019, 9:41 am

Surely Perdomo has to be odds in on being in the rotation?

Whilst I realize he's not really progressed since his first year and he has issues getting past the 5th( 3rd time through the lineup), he still has a viable arm. And experience.

Quote from MrPadre19 on March 7, 2019, 10:17 am

Unless we're adding Kuechel we may as well throw Perdomo/Mitchell/Erlin/ out there to "eat up innings" if we aren't going to compete anyway.

I have a feeling none of them will be with us this time next year anyway....."use em up"!

lol

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on March 7, 2019, 10:22 am

Quote from fenn68 on March 7, 2019, 9:26 am

Quote from David Nevin on March 6, 2019, 3:49 pm

Or,use the Mr.P method and piggyback Paddack and Strahm to limit both.

3-4 innings each every 5 days.

 

That would limit the innings but is that the best way to develop either Paddack or Strahm as SP? At least with them starting for 5 innings they get to go through the opposition line-up into their 3rd ABs forcing them to use / develop that sequencing and 3rd pitch to be effective in the future. Might argue that getting the up to pitching deeper in the game helps them more than pitching the shorten innings per game but a full season.

From the Padres perspective, not sure they have the luxury at the start of the season to not have both as SP (and cover with RP). Lucchesi - Lauer - Paddack/Strahm - ????????? for the last 2 spots. Plus burning both every 5th day means they will only have 11 pitchers for the other 4 games ... 2 being started by lesser arms .... RP will get burned out by June 1.

With any of the young arms the dual objective is to keep them healthy and accelerate the development ... probably done by strategically inserting some lesser arms during (or at the end) of the season to control innings. I expect to see starts for Erlin, Nix, Kennedy, even Avila early because they are on the 40 man then later some non-roster arms are added ... Allen and Quantrill and maybe even a PTNL.

I don't see any reason if the "starter" is successful and he is ready to go more innings you couldn't just let him go more in that game?

It's not like you would "have" to pull him after 3 innings.

If Strahm starts the game and is effective and efficient with his pitch count he could just stay in until he reaches the desired pitch count.

For that matter if this happens it would be the same as using a 6 man rotation....which considering we don't have an Ace who this would be limiting his starts what would be wrong with that?

When I suggested using a 6 man rotation in the past the reasons given not too was because you would be using poor pitchers in the 5/6 spots instead of giving your Ace another start.

We don't have that problem in 2019....so maybe using a 6 man would be a good idea?