Quote from 3fingersplit on February 28, 2019, 8:12 pm

Kinda like the '48 Braves.........Spahn and Sain and pray for rain 🙂

Quote from MrPadre19 on March 1, 2019, 10:19 am

Anyone see the Division going anything other than this?

Dodgers

Rockies

Padres

D Backs

Giants

 

Quote from David Jay on March 1, 2019, 10:52 am

Quote from 3fingersplit on February 28, 2019, 8:12 pm

Kinda like the '48 Braves.........Spahn and Sain and pray for rain

Minus Spahn and Sain!

Quote from MrPadre19 on March 1, 2019, 10:55 am

What does everyone else think the rotation will look like?

The depth chart on CBS Sports shows

Luchessi

Erlin

Allen

Mitchell

Strahm

 

I just don't see any way Lauer isn't in.

Quote from fenn68 on March 1, 2019, 11:35 am

Barring injuries, a trade (still possible), or a FA signing of a 1 year innings eater (e.g. Gonzalez) ... still have to debate in my mind an April set vs. what I think is likely by mid-season.

If the Padres go with best talent with longer term upside that is "on the bubble" and worry about innings control later in the season (injured list, strategic minor league options, etc.):

Lucchesi (L)

Lauer (L)

Paddack

Allen (L)

Strahm (L) ... sort of my wild card given the rave review last year about his "stuff" and this spring he is now fully recovered from his knee surgery (still hampered him last year).

Probably then have in the pen a couple of long relievers / spot starters to ease the loads ... sort among Mitchell, Erlin, and Perdomo while allowing Nix and Quantrill to get the AAA starts for a call up later.

=====

Side note: a bit back heard Preller said he was NOT all that concerned about controlling service time if the player deserves to be on the 25 man roster so for Preller having Paddack / Allen there on opening day may not be the issue some see. Note that if they need a break for workload ... a minor league option might just do the trick for control purposes. Big push to win soon ... so getting the best prospects up when they are ready for that ML development just builds a better base for winning in 2020 and worry about 2025 when that nears. Of course they must be perceived as ML ready first.

Quote from MrPadre19 on March 1, 2019, 2:49 pm

I think based on his finish last season and their investment in him if Mitchell pitches well this spring he will be given

a spot to start the season.

I'm not a fan of his and would love to see Paddack-Allen-Strahm in the rotation but I just don't think it will

happen unless Mitchell gets lit up in March.

 

Quote from dusty on March 1, 2019, 9:29 pm

My guess is

Lucchesi

Lauer

Last three slots between Strahm, Warren, Nix and Mitchell

 

So I really think that they signed Warren for a legitimate shot at the rotation. And I think barring total dominate springs from Paddack and Allen, we will see the final 3 spots go to Nix, Warren and Mitchell. I think we could possibly see Strahm sent to the minors to stretch out for a few weeks to give Mitchell a final look. If he fails again, Mitchell gets DFA’d and Strahm comes up. Then Allen and Paddack are the next two to come up when injuries strike the team or someone struggles.

Quote from MrPadre19 on March 2, 2019, 4:29 am

Does the injury to Castillo keep Strahm in the Bullpen?

 

Quote from fenn68 on March 2, 2019, 7:48 am

It 13 arms to open the season is shaping up to be a fascinating balance of "ifs" - "thens". With three+ weeks to go there is still ample time for injuries, trades, FA signing to go with the in camp contenders performing well (or poorly).

The signing of Warren will / should have impact ... he will be a RP (only did some starting back in 2015 but a RP since). The "safe" bet for RHRP were already Yates, Stammen, Stock, and Wingenter, so adding Warren gives the a complement of five putting a bit of a squeeze on a RH long man. Note that Warren can, in theory, go more than one inning but recently not more than two.

Then add the DL for Castillo as the LHRP #1 option. Could we see them going with 2 LH options in the pen (especially if the SP are LH dominate) and 6 RHRP opening a long RHP option? They did sign Loup as a veteran LHRP option so likely he is one.

IF Preller follows his earlier comments over the years ... he goes with whomever he thinks is the best performing option and will not worry about service time. Sort of pushing against that is a crowded 40 man roster giving pause on adding a non-roster arm such as Allen unless he really is compelling. That may be a problem for Mitchell who likely has a very short leash and his command is still worrisome but could become that 6th RHRP. At some point, if put on waivers, would any team claim him?

If I were making the call, Strahm is a SP until he proves he is not. He apparently has the arsenal to handle that role ... and the Padres need SP probably more than a LHRP for 2019 and going forward.

Never ending if - then conditions.