Quote from fenn68 on November 4, 2018, 7:45 am

Renfroe vs.Myers ... who gets traded (if not both) ... Preller is probably neutral and focuses on the return ... so it may be a buyers choice depending their view of each:

Renfroe (26) ... pre-arb and 5 years of control ... corner OF with power

Myers (27) ... about a $73MM contract for the next 4 years ... corner OF / 1B

then comparative stats for the 2017-18 period:

Renfroe (920 PA) ... 239/292/485 (wRC+ of 104) .... Baserunning -0.4 ... 6.2 BB% ... 27.1 K% ... WAR 1.8

Myers (992 PA) ... 247/325/457 (wRC+ of 107) ... Baserunning +4.3 ... 10.1 BB% ... 27.6 K% ... WAR 2.4

Net over the past two years they are about the same so from the Padres' perspective both will provide similar on-field value (assuming they follow past performance) supporting the thesis of dealing whomever yields the better return.

From buyers' perspective ... given similar on-field production ... the separator would be the contract and would give more to add Renfroe ... lower risk (cost-wise) of either regressing.

Logic would suggest that Renfroe becomes the center of a deal leaving the Padres' LF production at status quo.

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 4, 2018, 1:04 pm

Keep Myers....trade Renfroe.

I prefer the more versatile/better base runner with more ML experience.

Plus trading Myers would lower payroll towards the “tipping point”.

Unless we offset it with a big FA signing or trade for high cost veteran I can’t see it happening.

Myers also has name recognition for the “casual” Padre fan.

Ive been saying for a year or so that now is the time to trade prospects.....if not now,when?

We have enough that we can trade some for proven major league players and still have the pipeline in place.

Any ideas of some bigger named veterans other teams are willing to Trade?

I already like the idea of going after Carrasco but what about hitters?

BTW....would it be crazy to sign Beltre for a year or two till Potts is ready?

 

Quote from fenn68 on November 4, 2018, 2:46 pm

I think most are overestimating the TRADE VALUE of the prospects vs their PROSPECT VALUE. Maybe the Padres have the best farm system as compared to other prospects ... that does not translate into other teams being eager to deal quality ML talent for them. At this point, the better prospects are not near ML ready and that does not enhance their trade value ... teams would deal for them sure but don't expect a long term value in return.

Having said that I would trade prospects and/or ML talent to get prospects and/or ML talent if the net transaction(s) make the club better ... aiming for the sweet spot of 2020-2022 that will still have Hosmer and likely Myers ... current top prospects Mejia, Urias, Tatis, Reyes ... may be "established" and the early wave of top arms "established". Once they get a true reading of who looks like they will be keys to a winning team then ID the holes and use whatever else is available to fill those holes. To win, they need a lot of quality added ... not sure yet what they have so not sure what they need.

This winter ... might be more inclined (against my historical position) to selectively shoot for a major FA signing getting the future upgrade and not having to shed a major prospect. Corbin would be a good choice. Kikuchi might be a good gamble. Not as hot on Carrasco unless Cleveland takes Renfroe ... his 2 year control is not enough to "waste" a trade chip.

As for hitters ... can't see much available that has longer term value who does not clog up the prospect flow and cost significant assets. Don't see the upside value in mediocre / short term upgrades whose value will be wasted in a sub-500 2019 (will need a lot to go right before they jump .500).

Lest we forget 4 years ago when a bad Padres team went the prospects for ML player route and ended up with Kemp, JUpton, and Myers while giving up Turner, Ross, Fried, Eflin, Bauers, M.Smith (all ML players) and others .... how did that work out expect for keeping the Padres sub-500.

The mix has to be a deal by deal valuation and our real focus should be on the return on who gets dealt.

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 4, 2018, 3:06 pm

Obviously no one is suggesting gutting the Farm all in one offseason as AJ did in 15’.

Although I would point out that the prospects we got back for all those major league players just about balance out who we lost.

It may take till the next trade deadline but there will be teams who have veterans who they would happily move for the right package of prospects.

Also by then we should have  clearer view of our needs.

After Mejia,Tatis and Urias there isn’t a lot of offense coming before 2020....I’m afraid we need more than that to compete with the other teams in our Division.

Considering this will be after yet another draft of picking at the top we really do need to consider making some trades.

 

Quote from Booster SD on November 5, 2018, 11:04 am

If we were to trade Renfroe and slide Myers back to LF, do you think its worth while to take a look at Lowrie for our short term need at SS/3B. He could platoon with both Guerra and CV at SS and 3B. Play SS against LHP to spell Guerra and then play 3B against RHP to allow CV to play against LHP. He is an OBP guy with a some power and might have led the Padres in HRs last year. I know that 2B is his best position but could be a nice fill to Tatis and then to Potts.

Quote from fenn68 on November 5, 2018, 12:28 pm

Quote from Booster SD on November 5, 2018, 11:04 am

If we were to trade Renfroe and slide Myers back to LF, do you think its worth while to take a look at Lowrie for our short term need at SS/3B. He could platoon with both Guerra and CV at SS and 3B. Play SS against LHP to spell Guerra and then play 3B against RHP to allow CV to play against LHP. He is an OBP guy with a some power and might have led the Padres in HRs last year. I know that 2B is his best position but could be a nice fill to Tatis and then to Potts.

Since Lowrie is 34 and MLBTradeRumors is projecting him for a 3 year / $30MM deal (ages 35-37) does not seem like a strategic fit for the Padres. More importantly he will be sought after by some contending team willing to pay in that zone and at his age likely would opt to go to them (returning to OAK is most likely).

Padres might go a different way with the money.

Quote from fenn68 on November 5, 2018, 12:43 pm

Padres have a current payroll that is likely to come in at $75MM without a lot of room to pare down. Consider:

$21.7MM owed to former players (Gyroko, Olivera, Hughes, Makita)

$21.0MM owed to Hosmer (no trade clause)

$  5.5MM owed to Myers

everyone else is well below that ... so maybe some nibbling on the total but no big paring.

If we go back about 3-4 years the consensus rumors had the Padres being able to push payroll up to the $110MM or so mark (ended up spending on international FA but the money went). Now with no real option to spend on normal international FA and without extra draft picks to pay .... room to deploy more money the team payroll via FA signing or trades. If the right players are available (and willing to sign) .... maybe adding $25 - 35MM in payroll is possible.

However, Padres need more than one quality add to move towards contention ... so dumping $20-30MM on just ONE player really does not help but if they are strategic ... maybe they can add 2-3-4 or so improvement pieces. That scenario also leaves room to deal (roster players and prospects) for potentially pre-arb / AAA prospects with some ceiling while not incurring a major payroll hit. Play it both ways ... use money and prospects ... could potentially upgrade at a lot of needed areas ... and given their SP and offense there are a lot.

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 5, 2018, 2:38 pm

How soon does that $$ owed to former players drop off?

 

Also,what positions could we add 3-4 improvement pieces for?

Are you thinking we could trade multiple outfielders and add there?

We are pretty much set at C,1b,2b,LF,CF,RF and basically SS after the AS break.

I'm all for adding better players and personally am not sold on "any" of the guys who are entrenched....but would AJ

try to upgrade CF for example?

Are we certain to not add a SS or 2B due to Tatis and Urias?(SS and 2B are theirs for sure next year.......right?)

Maybe it depends on the interest level in Renfroe/Reyes/Myers?

Earlier I mentioned I thought there were only 2-3 Free agents we might show interest in...with AJ Pollock being one.

My thinking was we would greatly improve the OF defense if both Pollock and Margot were in at at the same time.

But otherwise we are pretty much committed to all but a few positions.....including pitchers.

 

Quote from fenn68 on November 5, 2018, 3:17 pm

2020 is setting up about the same payroll-wise as 2019 with

1. the payments to former players dropping around $13MM leaving on one more year for Olivera at $8.5MM

2. Richard ($3.0MM) and Stammen ($2.3MM) coming off the books

BUT

3. Myers contract jumps up $16MM to $22.5MM

4. Arb increase could be noteworthy pluses for Yates (arb 3) and Hedges (arb 4).

Basically the 2020 minuses are offset by the 2020 pluses ... so somewhat a need for a multi-year strategy.