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#91 · November 5, 2018, 3:48 pm
As for Preller, doubt he is locked in on anyone for 2019 except Hosmer with the no trade clause. If he can in his mind improve the overall team ... everyone is in play. Of course, most are unlikely to realistically be moved given Preller's other bias of setting the trade values high and holding.
I expect to start 2019, Preller will be looking for SP ... maybe he has a lot of roster bodies but no locks for 5 spots and adding a couple would allow for some of the better prospects (Allen, Paddack, Quantrill) to max their development time in AAA plus allow Lamet to ease back from TJ. Could go "short" with 1-3 year control ... having them gone as the better prospects are ready or maybe go "long" if targeting a top of the rotation type (e.g. Corbin).
As for field positions ... clearly wants to improve OBP and I would hope shore up the defense. Agree that C (but maybe only Hedges OR Mejia with the other going in a deal), 1B (Hosmer), 2B (Urias), and by the end of the season SS (Tatis) seem to be portions they will not try to improve upon. That leaves 3B (sort of obvious) and the entire OF ... yes they have bodies but if they need to improve the offense and defense some house cleaning may come here.
For a corner OF: Renfroe is poor OBP / poor defense; Reyes is poor defense and the jury is still out on his bat; Myers may be the better of the group defensively but still is marginal OBP; and lest we forget Cordero ... an unknown who likely needs more AAA time. For CF both Margot and Jankowski provide good defense but both are short of offense so not out of the question they could upgrade there without giving up on Margot and maybe utilizing as the 4th OF to prove his upside.
So, from my perspective upgrades to SP (at least 2), 3B (if possible), and one OF slot would not be out of the question. Who? Sort of depends on the cost of the available pieces.
The Carrasco deal (maybe using Renfroe) with some fringe pieces on both sides might work (would add about $9MM in each of the next two seasons)
The Sonny Gray deal with NYY may have legs (also about $9MM for one season) but might look bit like the Headley deal with the Padres getting a second piece with long control for maybe a pitching prospect. Note: since Gray is more sought after than Headley ... the piece to the NYY will be better.
One of the FA pitchers not named Corbin who seems to have a ton of suitors with big money. Side: Kikuchi just signed Boras as his agent ... so odds there have dropped.
3B ... have no idea (Moustakas on a 2 year deal? Senzel in a big trade?) ... OF? ... my major issue with Pollack is his health (makes Myers look like an iron man) plus some speculation that because of that (plus the signing team would lose a draft pick) he may take the QO (good money) and use 2019 to prove he can stay healthy and avoid the QO next year. Really don't get excited about the other OF FA ... so may another trade.
So, bottom line .... I see an easy opportunity for upgrades in multiple areas.
#92 · November 6, 2018, 8:14 am
I think at this moment, that I would try and build a trade around Renfroe/Carrasco with CLE and move Myers back to LF, if healthy he can play everyday vs LHP or RHP. In an effort to improve OBP, I would platoon Margot/Jank in CF, and Cordero/Reyes in RF. Then I would set up a platoon situation at 3B with Moose/CV, sign either Igelsias/Escobar/Mercer on a 2 year deal at SS until Tatis is ready. Urias and Hosmer man 2B and 1B respectively. IMO at this time, I am leaning towards a trade of Hedges and run with Mejia. As a back up C, either have Ellis return, or perhaps you take Gomes from CLE lessening the prospects that we need to send back to CLE as we are taking on some additional payroll from them.
That gives you 5 OFs, 5 IFs plus a utility guy (Spangy?) to take you to 6, and 2 Catchers. Thats 13 position players, leaving 12 sposts for pitching. Or if so inclined, you could leave CV as the primary back up to 2B, bail on Spangy and go with 13 pitchers if needs be, or simply have some young arms on a shuttle rotation between AAA and SD, and stay with 13 position players.
#93 · November 6, 2018, 10:18 am
I would think that given what this SP staff is shaping up to be ... and the current trend to work RP to death .... they need 13 pitchers on staff AND have the flexibility with that staff to shuttle between AAA and the Padres.
Coming out of last season this team was near the bottom offensively and in the lower tier with SP ... only the RP kept the afloat. Need to shore up a lot of spots but MIGHT be easier in the short run to add some stability to SP ... which is why I lean to pursuing Carrasco and Sonny Grey (if the price is right).
Have to be betting a bit on Urias / Tatis / Mejia at some point being upgrades (if not no hope) and some development from Reyes / Margot / Renfroe (at least the ones they keep) ... that is a young group so some time should be given. Hosmer likely will rebound (a bit) and Myers is Myers but a healthy Myers is better than we saw last season. Cordero did not look all that good in his brief run in 2018 ... probably needs some time in AAA before he bumps someone. That is a tough bet on multiple upsides ... but hard to see getting significant improvements on the trade market or the FA market.
If the bench becomes a catcher and 3 position players .... probably should aim for versatility and some LHH (making Jankowski -- LF/CF/RF; Spangenberg -- 2B/3B/OF; and Garcia -- 2B/3B/SS all keys). In the longer view ... if Villanueva is not starter might not be around and Reyes (who I like his bat development) at some point needs to be trade material since he is a bad fielding corner OF (worse than the current alternatives) and to a less extent the same goes for Renfroe but for now Renfroe has the better trade value and should get dealt first. Aside: Cordero has the athletic skills to be a decent fielder but is not as yet. Sort of a long route to say I am OK with a keeping Myers ... moving Renfroe / Reyes and potentially adding a corner OF upgrade for both offense / defense.
#94 · November 6, 2018, 11:47 am
As you have mentioned in previous posts, this is a season more for seeing what we have then trying to get a winning record. So while I agree, bringing in one starting pitcher is necessary maybe a 2nd is not needed to see what we have in Luchessi, Lauer, and Nix. Not to mention a couple of guys who maybe ready for a ASG call up from AAA. So I would get either Carrasco or Gray, not both unless Gray comes really cheap. Maybe Hedges for Gray and a prospect from NYY. In the same breath, I think we need to cut our teeth with our young OFers and see what we have. I think if you look at the L/R splits of both Margot/Jank and Cordero/Reyes you will see that each set makes a good to slightly above OFer. So at this time, I would not worry about upgrading OF until we see what we have in those 4.
#95 · November 6, 2018, 2:26 pm
I saw today that the Mariners may be willing to move some veterans "if" they can get back major league level prospects.
They mentioned that Paxton would almost certainly be traded.
I think he only has two years remaining but how nice would that be?
Maybe Renfroe/Naylor/Pitching prospect?
Of course......it makes you wonder what two years worth of "any" starter is worth considering we probably won't be
reaching the playoffs while they're here.....but you're not going to get a top of the rotation starter for peanuts.
Is Paxton better/more costly than we should expect us to trade for?
#96 · November 6, 2018, 3:56 pm
Oddly Paxton the LHP version of Carrasco .... both about 30 ... both will make about $9MM ... both with 2 years control ... both coming over from the AL.
I have the same issue with acquiring either ... it is the 2 year control. Some contending teams (and there are a few) likely would pay a premium for each to get that 2 year control while in a pennant race. Padres would have to match / beat those offers ... and get them for a non-contention 2019 and MAYBE a run in 2020. I would take either for the right price but expect they will cost a lot more in talent.
IF the Padres shoot for a quality SP .... bet they look at players with 3+ control and be OK with giving up more in prospects. Also, would not be surprised on a short term gamble (flip at the deadline) like Sonny Grey for something not significant in terms of prospects (take the $9MM contract).
On the FA market bet Corbin is way out price wise with the NYY bidding (probably 6 years > $130MM) but maybe sweep in on Keuchel ... might get him for 4 years which would be just enough to sort to all the Padres top prospects and find out who fills out the starting 5 going forward.
Since on the surface it seems far fetched .. and hard to necessarily believe Cleveland ... what if Kluber is really on the market (clear huge competition would ensue) ... 3 years control on a very reasonable contract for his skills .... Padres do have a stacked farm and some ML talent that might be of Cleveland's liking if they want to remain relevant in 2019-20. Got to be at least a 4 for 1 deal with at least 2 Top 100 players in the mix with 2 ML types. How much would the Padres offer (no high priced players) to get Kluber?
#97 · November 6, 2018, 4:45 pm
But wouldn’t Paxton and Carrasco also be good candidates to “flip at the deadline”?
Im with you on not wanting to give up too much to get guys who won’t be around when we contend....but I also don’t want to settle for lesser quality just because they “will” be around longer.
Better pitchers pitch better....and warrant a better return if we flip them.
So couldn’t we trade for Carrasco or Paxton(if it’s prospects we can afford to lose),keep them through 2019 until the 2020 deadline and if we still aren’t contending move them then?
Bottom Line....is it better to have a #4 starter for 3-4 years or a #2 starter for 2......if in either case they could still be traded if necessary to recoup what was lost.
#98 · November 6, 2018, 5:12 pm
If the Padres do go after Kluber, or any pitcher with that type of talent, and are willing to pay the price, you have to think they would be willing to spend the big time money to bring in an offensive player. I just don't think the Padres can afford to pay the steep price without bringing in a compliment. Asking one ace and a very young, inexperienced staff to carry an offensive-less team doesn't seem to make sense to me.
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Brian Connelly
#99 · November 7, 2018, 6:14 am
The GM meetings are going on in Carlsbad and as a result have heard an interview from Preller and some notes for Acee, Cassavell, plus some others. Noting that what could be "inferred" for the commentary does not necessarily reflect the future reality ... did try to interpret some of the comments:
1. SS ... will look at Galvis but NOT on a 3 year deal unless Galvis gives a major break in the AAV and understands he will not be the everyday SS (or 2B). Seem to be locking in on Urias at 2B and Tatis at SS sooner than later. In the transition to Tatis potentially a platoon of Urias and Garcia (by inference ... a likely hold on a current 2B such as Spangenberg or Pirela.
2. Corner OF .... up in the air with (trade possible). Reading between the lines, appears that Myers back to 3B is not their plan and that a deal of one of Myers, Renfroe, or Reyes is possible. In the Preller interview he commented on the development of Renfroe and Reyes but did not really mention Myers. Could interpret that as Myers is the first trade target (note one national reporter suggested Myers as an AL type player).
3. Adding a bat has not surfaced in any of the commentary ... might be the lack of quality options that would fit the long term objectives while blocking the development of prospects in 2019.
4. SP is a target but the focus seems to be towards quality (upper rotation arm), younger, and controllable for at least 3 year. Eovaldi name was suggested (not by Preller) at 29 and in line for a 3-4 year deal with a high teens AAV. On the trade side the indications are that Preller will NOT be trading top prospects (specifically pitching prospects) and would opt to work on their development in 2019-20. Note that Preller has some very positive words about their opinion of Lucchesi.
Again, things change quickly but based on the current commentary .... three lines (as I interpret): 1) Myers will be pushed in a trade; 2) will shoot to add a front line starter (younger / control) but without trading their own better prospects suggesting a FA push (they have the payroll space); 3) the prospects will get a lot of run in the ML next season.
#100 · November 7, 2018, 9:14 am
Fenn - thanks for the summary! (and all your posts!)
Here's the mlb.com summary ... https://www.mlb.com/padres/news/aj-preller-discusses-young-pitchers-wil-myers/c-300353884