Quote from fenn68 on January 16, 2019, 7:20 am

Quote from Booster SD on January 16, 2019, 6:08 am

So this one is for MrP, from the ESPN website. A proposed trade between SD and ATL. ATL gets Renfroe and Mejia and SD gets Riley(a target of MrP I believe) and Gohara.

I personally think that maybe ATL would prefer Hedges; however, either way I think I would pull the trigger. Thoughts?

I would do it just to get Riley for 3B ... potentially for 6 years.

Riley is MLB #43 and appears to be ML ready. Less interested in Gohara who is MLB #78 and another LHP who is also ML ready but would not kill a deal by rejecting Top 100 talent. That would be a very good haul for SD.

From Atlanta's perspective it MIGHT make sense. Mejia is MLB #26 and next year Atlanta will need catching ... now they have Flowers (33) and McCann (34) on one year deals so adding a young, low cost catching prospect works. Then they are the NL East champs ... want to repeat ... and have a hole in RF. Adding Renfroe even though he is basically a one dimensional player (SLG) albeit .800 OPS is solid ... fills a current need for long term at a low cost.

Atlanta would in effect strengthen 2019 and set-up Camargo returning to 3B in 2020 when Donaldson moves on and covers a future catching hole. Side benefit with Atlanta is they would still have payroll flexibility to add to their RP ... apparently an objective.

For SD ... moving Renfroe is not a big issue with the corner OF glut but the deal would lock SD in on Hedges as the #1 catcher for a few years (think the Padres would be OK with that). Riley is the key so I could be a little flexible on the 2nd piece from Atlanta ... they have a LOT of pitching prospects (but not much else).

Side: NOT a fan for Allred ... soft tossing LHP is not a good add to the Padres' prospects even for Renfroe ... keeping Renfroe is better.

 

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 16, 2019, 7:41 am

TRADE value is an interesting game and normally is different than the metics would suggest .... the difference is the "buyer" and their need and the desire to win now.

In Renfroe's case who I would not suggest he is a major target for teams to get BUT if you are Atlanta or Cleveland ... contenders with significant OF needs ... he has more value TO THEM. Sellers will prey on those needs to get better than expected returns.

Now just because he has "better trade value" than some believe does not translate into a major return .... somewhere the middle .... hence, negotiation.

Side: potentially one of the negatives of "stat based" GMs is the focus on the specifics players in the deal and ignoring the 25 man roster balance with the objective of winning. Wrong focus if winning the trade is more important than winning on the field.

Quote from fenn68 on January 16, 2019, 7:57 am

I am beginning to think moving Mejia (while his perceived value by others may still be high) is a good idea.

More comments I hear seem to think his defense is a MAJOR work in progress and his lack of plate discipline is also a MAJOR work in progress. After getting first hand view ... Padres may think that at 24 his success is a long shot. Add that SD is protected with Hedges (5 years) with Allen - Torrens - Campusano - Hunt ... all with a lot of potential ... in the queue.

I am beginning to get a greater appreciation of the implications of Cleveland experimenting with Mejia at 3B/OF (both disasters) as a reflection of their view of Mejia's catching future.

Note: heard a rumor (unconfirmed by me) that the Padres signed Chris Stewart (C) to a minor league deal .... veteran ML player who if nothing else happens is the #2 catcher behind Allen in AAA OR the back-up to Hedges if Mejia is sent to AAA (very possible). Maybe the ML back-up if someone is dealt.

Quote from fenn68 on January 16, 2019, 8:06 am

Hmmmm ........ does this and some more potential to an Atlanta - SD deal?

• Most tantalizing, however, were Anthopoulos’s comments regarding one possible swap that’s evidently in the works. “There’s one trade concept right now that 70% of the deal we would agree to, the 30% is probably where we are going back and forth,” he said. “I don’t know if we are going to get it done, but the main piece of the deal I think we ultimately would be ok, it’s the add on.” Certainly, this not-yet-completed arrangement could involve any number of possible players, but it’s at least notable to learn that there could soon be some action.

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 16, 2019, 11:47 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 16, 2019, 7:20 am

Quote from Booster SD on January 16, 2019, 6:08 am

So this one is for MrP, from the ESPN website. A proposed trade between SD and ATL. ATL gets Renfroe and Mejia and SD gets Riley(a target of MrP I believe) and Gohara.

I personally think that maybe ATL would prefer Hedges; however, either way I think I would pull the trigger. Thoughts?

I would do it just to get Riley for 3B ... potentially for 6 years.

Riley is MLB #43 and appears to be ML ready. Less interested in Gohara who is MLB #78 and another LHP who is also ML ready but would not kill a deal by rejecting Top 100 talent. That would be a very good haul for SD.

From Atlanta's perspective it MIGHT make sense. Mejia is MLB #26 and next year Atlanta will need catching ... now they have Flowers (33) and McCann (34) on one year deals so adding a young, low cost catching prospect works. Then they are the NL East champs ... want to repeat ... and have a hole in RF. Adding Renfroe even though he is basically a one dimensional player (SLG) albeit .800 OPS is solid ... fills a current need for long term at a low cost.

Atlanta would in effect strengthen 2019 and set-up Camargo returning to 3B in 2020 when Donaldson moves on and covers a future catching hole. Side benefit with Atlanta is they would still have payroll flexibility to add to their RP ... apparently an objective.

For SD ... moving Renfroe is not a big issue with the corner OF glut but the deal would lock SD in on Hedges as the #1 catcher for a few years (think the Padres would be OK with that). Riley is the key so I could be a little flexible on the 2nd piece from Atlanta ... they have a LOT of pitching prospects (but not much else).

Side: NOT a fan for Allred ... soft tossing LHP is not a good add to the Padres' prospects even for Renfroe ... keeping Renfroe is better.

I would do this trade.  Key is Riley + ? for Mejia + OF.   Definitely prefer a RHP over a LHP since we already have 4 of top 10 in Minors, plus as many as 4 LHP in current rotation.    Prospect for prospect deals are very rare, but with the inclusion of a MLB OF... maybe.

Really 2 extremely similar deep elite farm systems trading from depth for need.  Mejia "fits" better behind the 2 older C in ATL than behind / competing for AB's (eventually) with Hedges 4 years control...

I believe that Preller has the ammo for 1 major deal by trade, so doesn't want to pull the trigger on something like this if there's even a tiny % chance something greater (and trade cost acceptable) like the 3-way trade for Senzel could happen?

Side:  Wasn't advocating for Allred or any other player; just showing that MLBTR chat guy's opinion of Renfroe's worth might be lower than we Pads fans perceive

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 16, 2019, 11:50 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 16, 2019, 7:20 am

Quote from Booster SD on January 16, 2019, 6:08 am

So this one is for MrP, from the ESPN website. A proposed trade between SD and ATL. ATL gets Renfroe and Mejia and SD gets Riley(a target of MrP I believe) and Gohara.

I personally think that maybe ATL would prefer Hedges; however, either way I think I would pull the trigger. Thoughts?

I would do it just to get Riley for 3B ... potentially for 6 years.

Riley is MLB #43 and appears to be ML ready. Less interested in Gohara who is MLB #78 and another LHP who is also ML ready but would not kill a deal by rejecting Top 100 talent. That would be a very good haul for SD.

From Atlanta's perspective it MIGHT make sense. Mejia is MLB #26 and next year Atlanta will need catching ... now they have Flowers (33) and McCann (34) on one year deals so adding a young, low cost catching prospect works. Then they are the NL East champs ... want to repeat ... and have a hole in RF. Adding Renfroe even though he is basically a one dimensional player (SLG) albeit .800 OPS is solid ... fills a current need for long term at a low cost.

Atlanta would in effect strengthen 2019 and set-up Camargo returning to 3B in 2020 when Donaldson moves on and covers a future catching hole. Side benefit with Atlanta is they would still have payroll flexibility to add to their RP ... apparently an objective.

For SD ... moving Renfroe is not a big issue with the corner OF glut but the deal would lock SD in on Hedges as the #1 catcher for a few years (think the Padres would be OK with that). Riley is the key so I could be a little flexible on the 2nd piece from Atlanta ... they have a LOT of pitching prospects (but not much else).

Side: NOT a fan for Allred ... soft tossing LHP is not a good add to the Padres' prospects even for Renfroe ... keeping Renfroe is better.

 

 

 

All of this is why i have been promoting a deal for Riley all along.

Living in Ga. i follow the Braves more than any other team other than ours and it just seems to fit.

Especially after they added Donaldson yet still retained Camargo.

They are in "win now" mode and also set up to win for the long haul...which makes having both Camargo and Riley seem to be a luxury they could afford to move on from.

I could even see adding to the deal to include one of our RP's.

Renfroe/Mejia/Stammen for Riley/Gohara or Riley/Beck

 

Quote from 3fingersplit on January 16, 2019, 12:04 pm

So basically the trade to Atlanta if it happens would be Renfro, Mejia*, Stammen, Brad Hand* and Adam Cimber* for Riley and Gohara

Given the fact that only  Mejia was gotten for Hand and Cimber you add Renfro, Mejia and Stammen for those two...sure does seem like a lot to give up in a roundabout way....tells me that Mejia isn't all he is cracked up to be as a catcher

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 16, 2019, 12:11 pm

Re: Machado's 7/175MM offer from CWS per MLBTR....

Even a team like the Padres, still emerging from a rebuild and more earnestly eyeing contention in 2020, could reasonably top an offer of that magnitude. (San Diego did, after all, sign a far lesser player in Hosmer a year ago.)

How's that 7 MM+ to Phil Hughes look now?! GRRR...

Seriously... 4/120?   Not a lot of risk to Machado there... re-enter FA likely as a 3B at age 30

Pads payroll would sit at 115 MM with very little room to either add OR cut/lower (majority of Myers pay in 19 is signing bonus installment)...

90 MM guaranteed to top 5 guys + dead $ in 2020...

... but ticket sales (and franchise value?) WOULD rise!!

Quote from fenn68 on January 16, 2019, 1:09 pm

$175MM/7 for Machado sounds like a leak from his agent to generate more interest in Machado.

Consider he was posturing for beating Stanton's deal of $325MM/10 years .... found only Philly and CWS actively interested with the other teams sitting on the sidelines (too costly at that level). Worse Philly and CWS are basically the two prime players for Harper ... might not care which one they get, so not going to bid too high figuring they would be happy with the second piece bidding against no completion at that price point.

The media keeps identifying teams that COULD or SHOULD be interested .... but apparently only if the price dropped. Maybe the agent dangles out a low ball offer hoping to wake up the NYY, LAD, LAA, et. al. and get them into the bidding ... price starts to rise ... Machado gets closer to his price.

I do see the chance that both Harper and Machado signing either shorter (but high AAV deals ... $35-40MM) or a mega complicated deal of opt outs and player opt in (big money if they stink), full no trade. Maybe a combo of both.