Quote from MrPadre19 on January 15, 2019, 7:44 am

I could live with that deal....but may prefer to include Reyes rather than Renfroe.

Mainly because of his defense.....Reyes belongs in the A.L. IMO.

I like Reyes and his offensive potential.....but Hunter has a little more proven track record and while not a

good defender.....he's better than the "big guy".

 

Quote from Booster SD on January 15, 2019, 7:57 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 15, 2019, 7:43 am

As is pointed out in the article, Indians need a 3B too... but maybe Cincy doesn't have enough "else" to kick in to do a straight up trade.

CLE does not need a 3B, they have Jose Ramirez that hit 39 HRs and 100+ RBIs last season and is under contract through 2021.

Quote from Booster SD on January 15, 2019, 8:07 am

I think that you could live with Jank as the lead CF as long as you have an option to play against LHP. For that, you could bring in a vet such as Maybin or Span. If you need to send Hedges in the deal, then you can go with Mejia and bring back Ellis or Hundley as a mentor/back up. And with up to 10 options to give a chance for SP, I could live with sending either Lauer or Luchessi as I believe they are really the same guy and dont need two of them, even this year really. And I have no problem bringing in Kuechel to be honest.

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 15, 2019, 9:08 am

Quote from 3fingersplit on January 13, 2019, 9:46 am

Thank you Fenn.....I've been saying that all along

Let these young guys have a rip at it and develop this staff and then when the Padres are on the cusp....then get the lead dog aka Kevin Brown

And I third that sentiment (David Nevin)

So FENN, 3Finger, and David... just want to remind you that with Clay Richard gone (not against this; opens spot for youth)...

The Pads HIGH in IP last year were Rookies Lucchesi & Lauer @ 136 IP (Combined Majors/Minors) each.  Counting top 10 SP prospects, innings leaders --All in Minors obviously-- were Logan Allen & Quantrill with 149 & 148.

So you guys are comfortable entering a season with no SP >150 IP last year, and only Perdomo & Lamet (164 & 153 in 2017) EVER > 150 IP??

 

Quote from LynchMob on January 15, 2019, 10:56 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 15, 2019, 6:33 am

Now SD .... clearly Senzel is a key (but remember he is still a prospect). SD would also need a CF option if they move Margot since they would be only left with Jankowski (4th OF type) and no real CF options in AAA with "long shots" Reed / Olivares just arriving in AA. Also, can't include Lucchesi or Lauer (or any other 2019 ML SP option) from the current weak group (remember not get Kluber). Can't really trade Hedges since none seem to think Mejia (or A.Allen) are ready to be a ML #1 (if they ever will be).

So, I try this:

CINN: gets Kluber from CLEV

SD: gets Senzel and Ervin (27 year old OF ... hit 252/324/404 with long control) from CINN

CLEV: gets Margot (who they seem to really want), Renfroe, A.Allen (future catcher or 1B or DH), and a ML RP (maybe Stammen or Stock or Erlin ... that level as the 4th piece). That group fills ML needs ... low cost ... and overall long control.

=========

SD's OF becomes Myers - Ervin / Jankowski - Reyes / Cordero .... with the potential of Cordero going to CF if he can defensively handle CF (oh yes, and hit in the ML).

Don't hold your breath for a deal.

Here's the version of this at padres.com ... https://www.mlb.com/padres/news/corey-kluber-three-team-trade-rumors/c-302732380

I'd trade A LOT to get Senzel ... he seems a perfect fit.

Quote from fenn68 on January 15, 2019, 11:02 am

Clearly not comfortable but not willing to trade a ton of talent just to get someone to eat innings (or spend major dollars) to feel comfortable in 2019-20. I think (and I would be more comfortable) if they just wait out the FA market and add a low cost innings eating option (or two) on 1 year deals. If they are going to move talent or spend big dollars it needs to build out 2020-2022 at a minimum.

So, I would trade for Gray and his $7.5MM / 1 year contact but not at the cost of a top line prospect (that is what the NYY seem to demand).

Until they add some of those 1 year veteran innings eaters likely the start with one set of SP and we will see a lot of shuffling between the ML and AAA and the DL in an effort to "control" innings. Except for Mitchell everyone seems to have MiL options. Not going to be pretty but if they are really going to see who works in the ML they need to have them audition in the ML.

2019 (start): Lucchesi; Lauer; Strahm (expect they go with the conversion to SP); Mitchell; Perdomo .... Erlin to the pen where he is decent but also a spot starter.

2019 (mid season): auditions from L.Allen; Nix; Kennedy; Quantrill; maybe Diaz

2019 (late): audition from Paddack

2020 (start): all of the above plus Richards and Lamet ... maybe

2020 (mid-season / late): Morejon; Baez; Lawson; Avila

Clearly we will see a lot of failure but they most will need innings in the ML to fail or succeed.

Depending on how all these arms progress ... next winter (or 2021) is the better spot to focus on supplementing the SP staff with some veteran quality.

Quote from TatisJr on January 15, 2019, 11:05 am

I really would hope the Padres can pull off a deal for an impact bat at third without giving up Margot. I know many are down on him, but I still see him as a big piece in the future success of this team. I’m not entirely opposed to moving him if he is an A piece of a deal for Senzel, Suarez, Andujar type, but I’d hate to see him moved at this time. If Cleveland wants Margot AND a top prospect like Morejon, Baez, Patino I’d tell them no way. As it’s been stated before on this board, I think it’s clear AJ will not part with multiple players he thinks can be stars for one potential star. He will move multiple solid let’s say B, C grade young players to cash in on a potential star. It amazes me people would be ok dealing Margot and don’t want to part with guys like Hedges or Lauer, Renfroes of the world. None of those guys have star potential. If 2019 is just a development year why have Hedges around? Just let Mejía start and see what he can do.   I think dealing Lauer now would cash in while his value is likely at the highest it ever will be coming off a solid rookie year with many years of control.  Do we really think Lauer is in the Padres rotation in 2020-2022? If so that means Gore, Paddack, Patino, Baez, Morejon, L. Allen, Lucchessi, Espinosa, Quantrill, Lamet, Strahm or Nix weren’t good enough to beat him out. I have all of those guys ranked ahead of Lauer.

Quote from TatisJr on January 15, 2019, 11:29 am

The way I’d view it is Cleveland has to get an A piece for Kluber so they can have ONE from Margot, Morejon, Baez. I’d hate to see any of those 3 dealt, but you have to give a centerpiece top 50 prospect value to get Senzel, Suarez, Andujar type. I’d prefer to keep Margot because we have a stockpile of young pitching and we don’t have that in CF. I love Reed, but he still needs time.

Hedges when you take into account his position value, defense, leadership, age and years of control I would think his value is worth that of a top 100 prospect despite his weak hitting.

I would think if you lumped Lauer(age, rookie year success, lefty with years of control) with  Renfroe who is a likely 35-40 HR guy in CLEV or Cincy with 4 years of control that would be worth a top 150 prospect.

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 15, 2019, 11:50 am

I will give opposing GMs some credit for not trading their top talent for Padre pieces that are not top talent (or POTENTIAL top talent). IF at best Lauer is viewed as a 5th SP ... can't really expect to get much in return since almost every teams has candidates to be a 5th SP. Teams would take him to be sure ... but a deal for top talent will need a much more talented lead piece or two. Not sure trying to overwhelm a team with a high volume of mediocrity to get a top prospect works with most (if not all) GMs unless a bad contract is involved coupled with a fire sale.

Normally you have to move someone that you don't want to move to get quality in return. However, it is more about build a competitive 25 man roster and less about a specific player. I would not like trading Margot since backfilling would be difficult if you want first division quality but if the return is a top tier 3B ... were you have no ML candidate and none on the cusp ... have to consider that.