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#581 · January 5, 2019, 6:53 am
Quote from Commie on January 4, 2019, 7:07 pmEither Moose or Seager would be fine with me. They both have ups and downs. Just please no patchwork or players playing outta position anymore at any positions. Winning teams don't do that. The Pads need to start acting like one even though goal is 2020.
Get a 3b and two more starters. Don't forget SS, they do not have one rightnow. Urias is fine as a possibility some days, but they need a real SS around. Escobar on a one year deal would be ok. Heck they could have 3/4 of the world champ KC infield plus depending.
But Seager would require trading prospects.
Which is why for me I’d Prefer Moose unless he’s just not interested in S.D.
A two year deal would be enough to know if Potts is an option or if another lower level guy becomes an option.
If not......there will always be someone else in free agency or via trade when the time comes.
Something tells me we will still have trade pieces to offer two years from now.
#582 · January 5, 2019, 7:20 am
Should also note that Seager (31) comes with a 3 year / $57.5MM contract and a poor 2018.
Seattle ... if they want to further lower payroll ... might not require any of the top prospects BUT more likely they would eat "some" salary to go for the better prospects.
Either way a big price to pay for Seager at this age and poor 2018 and for similar production Moose is out there and should be signable for a lot less / shorter term giving the Padres more flexibility with the payroll / prospects for other moves.
Of course, a Myers for Seager deal might create some Padre interest .... similar contracts totals and both seeking to rebound for "off seasons". Problem is that Seattle really does not need Myers (at least need him less than they need Seager).
#583 · January 5, 2019, 12:17 pm
Given the lack of trade / FA activity across MLB ... and with the Padres, maybe we should embrace that as a strategy and have the Padres support the status quo for 2019 (fans will hate the idea but might be "smart").
Although we all have opinions on who who should go and who might be available to come to the Padres, reality is that virtually nothing is certain as baseline for a contending team in 2020/21.
OF: six ML bodies but only Myers with a significant track record ... would they be better served using 2019 to find out which actually develop? Reyes and Renfroe only have very short success runs and Cordero is still just a MiL product that cannot hit LHP and carries a high K%.
INF: Hosmer is there but then no established 2B-SS-3B so maybe better to find out what Urias - Tatis are really as ML players before ceding 2B-SS?
C: Hedges has the defensive chops but only about a half of season of good offense. Mejia and Allen fall in the same bucket ... both need to develop defensively with high upside offense. However, Hedges at #1 wants to catch 130 games and does not leave much hands on learning for the others. Might it be better to have Hedges #1 (maybe if he hits builds some better trade value) and either alternate Mejia and Allen between ML/AAA so the can actually catch? (note side benefit is that would preserve a full 6 years control starting in 2020). Could send them both down and sign Ellis.
SP: If they had any could comment more ... so just filter through the prospects to find survivors.
By the end of 2019 should have filtered out the players with no future ... got a better read on the coming prospects (e.g. Potts) ... and at that point target more precisely the parent club weaknesses going forward and having a full stock of prospects and payroll flexibility to attack trades and FA next winter.
The next FA crop is quite robust at 3B and top of the rotation SP. Concurrently, the 3B/SP trade options such as Kluber / Syndergaard or any of the 3B now come with one less year which should lower the asking price.
Don't shoot until you see the whites of their eyes.
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#584 · January 9, 2019, 2:54 pm
I'm starting to get pretty annoyed with this stagnant FA market. I used to joke that sabermetricians would prefer robots on the field to actual players, but now it feels like we've got robots running front offices across the league. Risk adverse and hyper analytical to a fault. There are plenty of natural landing spots for a ton of players lingering on the market and yet nothing feels imminent. Analytic approaches are definitely the present and future of baseball, but holy hell they are making the game boring as hell.
At this point, for instance, I'd very much welcome something like a 2/20 - 2/30 deal for the likes of Moustakas. Never really thought I'd say that, either.
#585 · January 9, 2019, 4:14 pm
Everything hinges on Machado and Harper.
The Phillies aren’t gonna make a Deal or sign a FA until they know if one of these two are going to sign with them.
Same can be said for NYY,CHW,LAD etc....
Now why they haven’t already signed I don’t understand.
For instance......if Machado really wants to be a Yankee I’m sure he would have already been made an offer by them and signed.
It doesn’t take months for the 4-5 teams who could conceivably sign him to make their pitch.
They need to make their decisions and let the rest of the league get on with it.
And the Padres need to sign Moustakas and Kuechel and call it an off season.
#586 · January 9, 2019, 5:18 pm
First, MONEY .... Second, MONEY .... Third, MONEY. Machado may want to play in NY and Harper may want to play in LA but not at expense of taking a less than maximum contract.
Saw the note this afternoon that Machado wants a deal bigger than Stanton's $325MM. Nobody thinks he is worth that (think so far the mid-$200MM is the bid ... if actually a bid is in). However, someone will keep bidding up and he will end up taking the max offer ... just has to wait out the teams (worked before with others).
Meanwhile Boras does not want Harper to sign until after Machado signs so he can get a bigger deal (also worked before for Boras).
I know the media loves the idea of Machado in NY and Harper in LA so is spinning everything to justify the NYY and LAD as the destination. Not so sure the teams are all that motivated to sign them ... and not at those prices on long term deals .... both have been burned on long term deals (some success too) but the current front offices are appearing to be much more conservative, following more analytics, and want more flexibility in constructing a roster ... signing either would cause luxury tax penalties.
You are right a lot of the other FA are just hung up probably holding out waiting for PHIL to make its move. PHILS need a lot .... have a lot of money ... and may overpay to cover missing out on Machado and Harper. Same may go for trades ... teams with assets PHIL may want (e.g. Myers) if they don't sign Harper makes no deals until that is resolved. Ugly.
Side on Moustakas, apparently his agent (Boras) is not interested in having him sign until he knows were Machado signs ... marketing him to PHIL or CWS or both depending on where Machado ends up. I think LAA along with the Padres are interested and also hung up on being able to sign him. So, not expecting action on that front.
An opening day platoon of Garcia (L) and France?
#587 · January 9, 2019, 7:02 pm
That 3b platoon just might be enough to get AJP fired. And I like France ; see him as a DeRosa-Miller type. Eventually.
I know you are not advocating.
Have heard from multiple sources Pads are actually targeting younger 3b. Who? Franco Riley, Machado?
AJP: please do something so we have a new topic to discuss. We've been flogging this dead horse for so long.
#588 · January 10, 2019, 10:40 am
Quote from Commie on January 9, 2019, 7:02 pmThat 3b platoon just might be enough to get AJP fired. And I like France ; see him as a DeRosa-Miller type. Eventually.
I know you are not advocating.
Have heard from multiple sources Pads are actually targeting younger 3b. Who? Franco Riley, Machado?
AJP: please do something so we have a new topic to discuss. We've been flogging this dead horse for so long.
Right? It's disheartening to check in here for some hard core Padres chatter only to see the last response on the board is day(s) old.
Give us things to chew on, AJP!
#589 · January 10, 2019, 12:06 pm
Well, according to MLB the Realmuto trade talks are starting again. With SD and Hedges being mentioned. Depending on what the other pieces would be, I would be OK with saying good bye to Hedges. Of course they list the LAD as the most "motivated" to land him.
IF SD really wants JTR, could we vault ourselves to the top and lessen the prospect load if we also took on all of Starlin Castros contract, $11.6M this year and a club option for 2020 of $16M. Im sure he is not his old self at SS; however, if he could play SS until the arrival of Tatis and then play 3B until the arrival of Potts. That would allow Urias to stay at 2B and Kinsler can be the super utility guy along with Garcia. Thoughts on including Castro?
#590 · January 10, 2019, 1:57 pm
What do y'all think of Kyle Glaser's comments ...
I think he's right on when he says this ...
To me, the biggest weakness in the system is that I am not sure there are enough impact bats ... They need more and I’m not sure it’s all there internally.
My hope is that Owen Miller becomes an "impact bat" ... maybe he's our 2020 Opening Day 3B-man?
And ... what do you think of Manny Partida ... of whom Kyle sez ...
For a really deep pick, I would keep an eye on left-handed pitcher Manny Partida, a Mexican native, that was in the Dominican Summer League this year.