Quote from Booster SD on January 4, 2019, 8:29 am

I think the difference in Machado and Arenado/Rendon is the age of the player. Machado is 26 in his FA year and the other two will be 28 and 29 when they hit FA. So while the money per year maybe similar, the years wont be as long since they are basically 3 years older when hitting FA.

And I thought I was big on SD signing Arenado, but after looking at his home and away splits which are enormously different except for 2017, there is no way I would sign Arenado next year. IF SD is planning on a big FA signing, are they going to be able to outbid WAS for Rendon? Big gamble. Looks like a trade for a 3B is in the mix, Duffy from TAM, Seager from SEA, or sign Moose. Moose might be the best option IMO, no loss of prospects.

Wild Card thought, sign Wilmer Flores to a deal, very young 27, and mashes LHP.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 4, 2019, 8:39 am

I would have no issue signing Arenado despite his splits "if" the deal is reasonable.

By reasonable I mean of course....not really reasonable but reasonable for MLB superstars.

His defense is so top notch it helps make up "some" for the offense he may lose moving to Petco.

However....I would prefer Moose on a two year deal holding out hope to fill the position going forward with one of our own prospects.

Potts.....or next guy up.

Locking in to 5-7 years on Arenado isn't wise for a team like ours.....esp. considering we just did with Hos.

One guy on a long term deal is enough IMO....injuries to these guys would kill us.

 

 

Quote from LynchMob on January 4, 2019, 8:40 am

I think Wilmer Flores is a good idea.

Quote from Booster SD on January 4, 2019, 8:59 am

Quote from David Nevin on January 4, 2019, 8:39 am

I would have no issue signing Arenado despite his splits "if" the deal is reasonable.

By reasonable I mean of course....not really reasonable but reasonable for MLB superstars.

His defense is so top notch it helps make up "some" for the offense he may lose moving to Petco.

 

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=arenano01&year=Career&t=b

 

You might want to go to the link above and check out the splits. You are talking about a 60 point difference in both BA and OBP and a 140 point difference in slugging. And 200 points in OPS. I love his defense as well, but that is a lot of offense to be losing for a high dollar guy.

Quote from fenn68 on January 4, 2019, 9:16 am

Every time I consider the future of 3B for the Padres ... I follow a different tract.

First, I would not sign either Rendon or Arenado at what will be the market price next winter ... has to be 7+ years and "near" the AAV of Machado / Harper .... they may be worth that in some markets and for some teams but not the Padres who will have $20MM+ to Hosmer / Myers for the next few years ... they need to spend their money on upgrading 23 positions not just one. Add that I have a real aversion to signing any player for more than 5 years and even 5 years is on the bubble ... normally they do not hold value for the duration of the contract.

Should note: although Hosmer's contract was sold as $144MM+$5MM bonus for 8 years .... baring a catastrophic injury ... it is a 5 year / $105MM deal. Why, after 5 years (at $20MM/yr) Hosmer has an opt out and if he does not his annual salary DROPS to $13MM/yr. He (Boras) will opt out ... in 2023 $13MM will be peanuts.

Pass on the big time FA.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 4, 2019, 9:37 am

Quote from Booster SD on January 4, 2019, 8:59 am

Quote from David Nevin on January 4, 2019, 8:39 am

I would have no issue signing Arenado despite his splits "if" the deal is reasonable.

By reasonable I mean of course....not really reasonable but reasonable for MLB superstars.

His defense is so top notch it helps make up "some" for the offense he may lose moving to Petco.

 

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=arenano01&year=Career&t=b

 

You might want to go to the link above and check out the splits. You are talking about a 60 point difference in both BA and OBP and a 140 point difference in slugging. And 200 points in OPS. I love his defense as well, but that is a lot of offense to be losing for a high dollar guy.

Oh I've seen his splits.

Number one that would be a factor in what was "reasonable" to pay him.

No team is going to pay him based solely on his Home production.

But,number two,look at his splits from 15',16',and 17'.

They are not much different than his home numbers.

For instance...in those three seasons he hit 58 HR's on the road and 58 HR's at home.

His road numbers those three seasons are still "superstar" offensive numbers.

Can't just go by 2018's splits.....at least not IMO.

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 4, 2019, 9:44 am

So if I ignore the misleading "interest" in Rendon / Arenado that will surface at some point ... my next hurdle is looking ahead (far ahead) in internal options. Going "all in" on Potts in 2021 is too big a gamble BUT if that is hedged by other internal options ... e.g. a lower level INF prospect (3B or SS) develops in 3 years such as Edwards, Miller, E.Ruiz, and others to man 3B or shift Tatis to 3B ... might be looking for a 3B for just 3 years (easier to get) ... might need another MiL campaign to make a good call there.

If that is the thinking ... could go 1 year for a 3B now (revaluate next winter) or maybe 2 for the right option (right price) or 3 for the very right option (the right price). Remember, next winter there will be 3B options other than Rendon / Arenado who will be the darlings of the big money buyers ... leaving the 3rd best dangling and maybe singable at a real bargain price.

Leaning toward Moustakas (decent defense but mainly for the LHH power for a RH oriented team). Don't see a major change in demand for him since last winter ... so should get good value on a low cost deal for one year (two if that seals the deal). Side note: that 2nd year may be the key ... reports are that Kinsler had a 1 year / $5MM offer from the NATS but chose the 2 year / $8MM deal from the Padres.

Don't think they need to deal for a 3B in 2019 with the FA options ... why give up prospects and pay more money for "marginal" difference from someone such as Mouse ... on a team that will not contend in 2019.

Note: the key trade names: Franco (3 years); Seager (3 years); Duffy (2 years) ... Andujar is longer control but not yet really on the market (if he ever will be) .... NYY will demand a lot (they don't need to deal him) plus Andujar is a horrible fielder and has the range of an Oak Tree with hands of stone ... better alternatives.

I vote for Moustakas on a $8MM/yr for 2 years.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 4, 2019, 9:51 am

Yep.....I don't see Franco,Duffy or Seager enough of an upgrade(if at all) to warrant the cost in prospects to get one of them.

IMO you only go that route if Moose doesn't want to play in S.D.....which I would find hard to believe if the offer is in line with others he receives.

 

Quote from Commie on January 4, 2019, 7:07 pm

Either Moose or Seager would be fine with me. They both have ups and downs.  Just please no patchwork or players playing outta position anymore at any positions. Winning teams don't do that. The Pads need to start acting like one even though goal is 2020.

Get a 3b and two more starters.  Don't forget SS, they do not have one rightnow.  Urias is fine as a possibility some days, but they need a real SS around. Escobar on a one year deal would be ok. Heck they could have 3/4 of the world champ KC infield plus depending.