Quote from Brian Connelly on December 18, 2018, 12:49 pm

Quote from Booster SD on December 18, 2018, 6:17 am

Quote from dvmin98 on December 18, 2018, 5:19 am

Don't waste another 40 man spot on Ellis.  Who are we gonna dump?  Kennedy?  Guerra?  If Mejia is starting in AAA, then give Austin Allen a shot as the backup

Well, we assume that Pirela is gone to make room for Kinsler. So, I would say that Ellis could sign a MiL deal with the guarantee that he is on the 40 man as soon as they can put Richards on the 60 day DL. Not sure of when that is possible, after Spring? And with Ellis not getting a lot of play, he would probably take that deal. Allen needs to be in AAA, working between C and 1B, splitting time with Mejia.

Booster & DVmin;  You hit on 3 issues that haven't gotten a lot of discussion till now:

1)  AJ Ellis.  I love him as a backup again, but only IF Mejia or Hedges is traded, because of the next 2 issues...

2)  Playing time at C (& OF).   Having Hedges & Mejia SOUNDS great from a depth standpoint, but every day one plays the other isn't.  The "give Mejia AB in LF" talk is not going to happen, b/c Pads see him as a C, plus the OF has the same problem already.   Putting Mejia in AAA re-creates the same problem with A. Allen; one can DH or play elsewhere daily, but still hinders both of their development.  Mejia has nothing to prove in AAA with the bat, and another minor issue is that he "only" has 1 option left; small decrease in future trade value as a young player without one left in back pocket.  Booster, could do as you say, b/c 40-man spots will open end of Spring but...

3)  40-man roster is 'too' tight.  I believe Preller over-reached a little protecting 7 guys in off-season on top of 5 in August (1 guy, R. Wick is gone).  France makes sense with roster changes they probably knew were coming.  But Olivares, Avila, & Gerardo Reyes are marginal:  especially the last 2 guys.  Avila has good K #'s, but not high velocity FB, smaller build, very unlikely to contribute in MLB this year.  Reyes has the big FB, and a strong winter ball performance may have gotten him his spot.  Issue with him has always been control.  And he's 25.5 y.o. (26-May); not the typical Rule 5 RP profile.  MIGHT have lost these guys in Rule 5, but could get them back, and would have 2 roster spots open.  They also would have MORE (minor) trade value OFF 40-man than on 40-man due to their fringe position & ongoing risk of having to be claimed if DFA'd

... in or after 2019 there are 6 near locks to be added:  Tatis Jr, L. Allen, Naylor, Quantrill, Baez, and Buddy Reed.  DV, besides the 3 guys you mentioned, the only other 40-man guy with an asterick by his name is Luis Torrens.  If we cut/DFA beyond those names, it's too far.  Only 2 FA after this year:  Stammen & Clay Richard.

SUMMARY:  A secondary but really significant benefit of a 4 for 1, 5 for 2 type 40-man roster player Trade for a major asset (i.e. SP/Realmuto) is that it would "unlock" all 3 of these issues:  Allow AJ Ellis to re-sign as the 1 yr "bridge" to Austin Allen as backup to remaining C; resolve playing time at C & OF issue, and eliminate (for now) the need to DFA/minor trade out the bottom of the roster player by player.  Might be forced to cut guys we don't want to in season due to shorter term injury/depth needs; because right now Roster is full (2 60-DL guys & at least 4 no chance MLB guys) and STILL need a SP, an INF, & maybe a RP with (guessing) 15 MM +/- to spend

Quote from fenn68 on December 18, 2018, 1:32 pm

Would not be surprised ... for 2019 .... Hedges and Mejia split the catching duties maybe Hedges 110 games / Mejia 52 games. In MLB these days it is the exception for a catcher to go enough games to even be considered "qualified". Hedges is not the biggest catcher around and does seem to perform better after get some rest (usually from an injury break). Mejia can benefit with managed ML ABs but more importantly getting ML defensive knowledge from Barajas and Hedges. Basically, using 2019 to sort out who is the #1 in 2020.

I am not all that worried about the 40 man yet. If they don't clear some space via trades this winter they will 60 day DL Richards / Lamet to start the season IF they need to add a non-roster player at that point. Barring some weird combination of injuries .... I would not expect Tatis - L.Allen - Quantrill - Munoz to be an issue until about the trade deadline ... at a point they may be dealing Stammen, Kinsler, ... still have Guerra, Kennedy, Richard,  and Maton as low hanging fruit if needed.

Quote from TatisJr on December 18, 2018, 3:38 pm

I wouldn’t classify Maton as low hanging fruit. He has one of the best four seamers I’ve ever seen. I think Maton can become an elite reliever.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 18, 2018, 5:00 pm

FENN:  still have Guerra, Kennedy, Richard,  and Maton as low hanging fruit if needed...

Quote from TatisJr on December 18, 2018, 3:38 pm

I wouldn’t classify Maton as low hanging fruit. He has one of the best four seamers I’ve ever seen. I think Maton can become an elite reliever.

I'm between you guys on Maton.  I don't see the velocity to get to "elite reliever", but agree with Fernando 😉 that he's not "low hanging fruit".  Optimistically reliable 7th inning guy?   Pessimistically he's one of those guys who's good enough from the time he's drafted to blow through the minors, i.e. high floor.  But with a low up/down guy ceiling like Quackenbush.   Also, while our SP depth is great & yes, can move some SP's in minors to RP in MLB, the "true" RP MLB depth is OK at best assuming no trades.

And doubt Pads would cut Clay Richard: gives innings, under contract for 3 MM, history with org,  leader/mentor to all the young SP's... don't see him just getting DFA.

I have:  Pirela, Guerra, Kennedy, and Torrens at the edge of the roster.  Pirela presumably to be DFA when Kinsler signing official.  That leaves 3 truly "expendable" guys, and still almost have to add a SP, Infielder, maybe a RP to roster.  Bryan Mitchell & Greg Garcia are not roster locks, but will enter ST, and are likely > 50% to make O.D. roster, < 50% to end year on Pads roster.

Obviously good thing to replace mediocre talent with better talent on roster, but even these 4 names have some value.  I'd be surprised if Pirela doesn't get claimed, etc.  2 biggest issues with roster are:  # of guys injured + far from MLB too high (IMO 5 is max in the offseason & we're at least 6), and WAY too many long reliever/"opener" types :  Perdomo, Diaz, Erlin, maybe C. Richard, etc

Quote from 3fingersplit on December 18, 2018, 5:37 pm

AJ Ellis would look great back in a Padre uniform....as a coach

Quote from fenn68 on December 18, 2018, 6:51 pm

For now only a need for one DFA to make room for Kinsler .... so not a big issue. I know the common thinking is Pirela but even with adding Kinsler the Padres are light on INF (especially if they don't believe in Myers returning to 3B). So could they go a different route this week (assuming no trade) and target a Kennedy?

Do think the DFA choices change as the make-up of the 40 man modified. At this point, no obvious need for another DFA until the end of ST and maybe not even then. Richards / Lamet to the 60 day DL makes room for 2 non-roster adds for early in the season. As the season moves on, more than likely some of the current 40 man earns their way off the roster (making for an easier decision) and as we move to the trade deadline moving Stammen, Kinsler, maybe Yates clear some spots ... IF they need (want) to add non-roster types. By then, DFA of C.Richard in his last 2 months may be a legit option as well as Mitchell unless he surprises us all.

Early in the season might see the pitching shuttle with rostered arms ... Maton, Diaz, Reyes, Perdomo, Nix, Paddack ... before adding L.Allen, Quantrill, or Munoz.

OF does not have a need for any non-roster add ... closer to providing a roster delete base on the over stock of ML quality pieces.

INF is the issue with Kinsler (old and getting older) / Urias (unproven at the ML level) / Garcia (light hitting utility back up off waivers) backed up by France (barely out of AA and not even a top 30 prospect) and Guerra (just flat out cannot hit) ... maybe hanging on to Pirela is not a bad idea until they add another ML quality INF to the mix. Tatis is not arriving until August 1 (give or take) ... that will take care of itself then.

Until all that starts playing out ... one DFA (or minor trade) for Kinsler then wait for Preller to make deals of rostered players giving 2 for 1 or 1 for a non-roster prospect (yes, still think that is an option).

No worries ... be happy.

 

Quote from LynchMob on December 18, 2018, 6:53 pm

Sounds like more/better than classic pre-season hype about Matt Strahm ...

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/sd-sp-padres-matt-strahm-rotation-push-20181205-story.html

More than 16 months removed from knee surgery, the 27-year-old left-hander is up about 16 pounds in his push to give the Padres another in-house rotation option this spring.

Quote from fenn68 on December 18, 2018, 7:01 pm

Quote from LynchMob on December 18, 2018, 6:53 pm

Sounds like more/better than classic pre-season hype about Matt Strahm ...

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/sd-sp-padres-matt-strahm-rotation-push-20181205-story.html

More than 16 months removed from knee surgery, the 27-year-old left-hander is up about 16 pounds in his push to give the Padres another in-house rotation option this spring.

A continuation of last season when the reporters / broadcasters were drooling of his stuff and potential to return to being a starter. ST will be the test but getting the feeling he would have to fall flat on his face not to be in the starting rotation in April. Lucchesi (L) - Lauer (L)  - Strahm (L) - Mitchell (R -- and last hurrah) - PTNL? I could see Richard becoming the long RP after his lack luster 2018 and heading for the last roundup with the Padres. Unless they make a strategic add to SP ... #5 is between Kennedy - Nix - Perdomo - Diaz - Erlin I guess. Paddack will probably bid his time in AAA while the others sort themselves out.

Quote from 3fingersplit on December 18, 2018, 7:09 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 18, 2018, 6:51 pm

For now only a need for one DFA to make room for Kinsler .... so not a big issue. I know the common thinking is Pirela but even with adding Kinsler the Padres are light on INF (especially if they don't believe in Myers returning to 3B). So could they go a different route this week (assuming no trade) and target a Kennedy?

Do think the DFA choices change as the make-up of the 40 man modified. At this point, no obvious need for another DFA until the end of ST and maybe not even then. Richards / Lamet to the 60 day DL makes room for 2 non-roster adds for early in the season. As the season moves on, more than likely some of the current 40 man earns their way off the roster (making for an easier decision) and as we move to the trade deadline moving Stammen, Kinsler, maybe Yates clear some spots ... IF they need (want) to add non-roster types. By then, DFA of C.Richard in his last 2 months may be a legit option as well as Mitchell unless he surprises us all.

Early in the season might see the pitching shuttle with rostered arms ... Maton, Diaz, Reyes, Perdomo, Nix, Paddack ... before adding L.Allen, Quantrill, or Munoz.

OF does not have a need for any non-roster add ... closer to providing a roster delete base on the over stock of ML quality pieces.

INF is the issue with Kinsler (old and getting older) / Urias (unproven at the ML level) / Garcia (light hitting utility back up off waivers) backed up by France (barely out of AA and not even a top 30 prospect) and Guerra (just flat out cannot hit) ... maybe hanging on to Pirela is not a bad idea until they add another ML quality INF to the mix. Tatis is not arriving until August 1 (give or take) ... that will take care of itself then.

Until all that starts playing out ... one DFA (or minor trade) for Kinsler then wait for Preller to make deals of rostered players giving 2 for 1 or 1 for a non-roster prospect (yes, still think that is an option).

No worries ... be happy.

 

Yup....no need to make a knee jerk reaction on Pirela for quite awhile

Lots of things happen in ST and their are a few others I would move before Pirela...he does something Guerra does not...Hit

His defense is better than Villanueva in my opinion ( who is gone) and he can play more than one position

No big hurry