Quote from Brian Connelly on December 16, 2018, 3:16 pm

LOGICAL thing to do about 15 MM from 100 MM payroll for Pads would be

to pull a trade for Sonny Gray (logically around Craig Stammen); net of + 6 - 7 MM...

leaving 8 - 9 MM for 3B by trade or FA

Quote from fenn68 on December 16, 2018, 3:27 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 16, 2018, 3:16 pm

LOGICAL thing to do about 15 MM from 100 MM payroll for Pads would be

to pull a trade for Sonny Gray (logically around Craig Stammen); net of + 6 - 7 MM...

leaving 8 - 9 MM for 3B by trade or FA

That would work for me but apparently the NYY are not yet ready to drop that low for a return. NYY have made it clear that Gray is up for grabs ... a lot of teams (including the Pads) seem interested ... yet he has not moved.

Could be they are looking for a top prospect (or least a legit near term one). Don't think they are in a hurry.

Quote from fenn68 on December 16, 2018, 3:44 pm

Pass on Realmuto. Miami has not moved him yet because their asking is apparently purely unrealistic but they know they can always move him to someone later.

With 3 "contenders" all in need of a starting catcher and quality farm systems "interested" and only Grandal left on the market (and not going to LAD and maybe not really loved at this asking by anyone) ... Miami can just keep dragging this out with one of the three ponying up a plus return of ML and prospect players. Demand exceeds supply puts Miami in a strong position.

If anything Preller should be in contact with Atlanta - Houston - LAD trying to sell Hedges in a seller's market. (Does depend on how willing they are to go into 2019 with Mejia as #1 catcher). Hedges has the ML experience, plus defender, low cost, 4 years of control ... all fit well for contenders with plus pitching staffs that may want defense first.

2019 will be a struggle ... might as well go with Mejia and develop him in the ML (sign Ellis for the bench). If their longer term assessment of Mejia being a top catcher is right, gets him on track for the contending years coming soon.

Frankly with Atlanta or Houston the Padres could bundle an OF bat with Hedges to enhance the return and reduce the corner OF congestion. Atlanta needs a RF and Houston would like a DH/LF bat.

Hedges and Renfroe for ??????????????

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 16, 2018, 4:13 pm

I dont think Noah is dead just yet... Mets penny pinch and Noah will be due some good $$$ in Arb 1... this yr... Arb 2 and Arb 3...

 

Padres can package Margot (Mets need a CF. preferrably a righty) + Stanmen (Mets had worst BP could still use more there and Stanmen comes in cheap) + Lucchesi (they gain an italian kid in NY, with 5 yrs of control "forget about it" + Morejon (the cost of getting an Ace has to include a top 5 Padre Prospect)... This makes the Mets a better team overall, balances their lefty heavy lineup, gives them BP help, a replacement SP with #3 tools and an everyday CF who has a lot to prove and could easily become a steady 3-4WAR player.. Padres need a TOR and THOR fits the team age and controllable (3yrs) period... I could still see something like this happening...

 

Other SP options

Indians Kluber or Bauer (seems unlikely now that they've shed some $$ and Kubler makes the most sense because of control)

Gray- depending on asking price, I think a borderline top 100 (Naylor type) is about as high as I am willing to go to acquire Gray..

Dallas- FA if price and years come down to 4/75 to 80.. I think we should at least explore that option.. remember we have Richards (#playoffs2020) in place and a 1-2 punch, plus one of the young guns becoming a reliable or better #3 and we have our 1-2-3 punch, with a chance to add an expiring (or Verlander type) at deadline if we are in it (2020 I am talking about)..

Kilkuchi - FA again another potential SP, he has been linked to Pads for a long time, has ties with several Padre execs and Makita, wants to pitch in the West (Seattle rebuild, SF rebuild?, that leaves LAD. LAA and US as the best fits for what he wants) Supposedly asking price around 4/40-50 ... *** This one will be decided by 1/4/19 at the latest (posting rules say he has 1 MONTH to get signed or he goes back to Japan and they posted him 12/4/18.. Boras client and he will drag it out until last hour,,, but Boras and AJP work well together Hosmer/Hedges etc Boras clients)..

There are other SP options Pads will sign or inquire about as they want to bring in at least 2 into the fold, look for 2nd option to be a non-roster ST/Minor league deal... a guy like Pomz makes a ton of sense, since he had huge success here and could build his value back up with us..

Now the glaring NEED... Who is on 3B?... I read a while back that AJP and Philly GM had a deal in place (backup deal in case AJP could get a bigger name) for Franco 3B.. I think Philly is weighing their options 1) Machado 2) Moose... I think Franco would come relatively cheap, and Fangraphs I believe has him at a 2.5 WAR 2019 projection which frankly would be a huge get for Pads.. I could also see Moose on a 2 yr $10mil per type deal as a FA... and lastly if Philly strikes out on Harper BUT signs Machado.. I could see a bigger deal involving Myers (Phillies still need OF) in perhaps a deal that gets us De Los Santos (back)+ Franco 3B....

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 16, 2018, 4:21 pm

^^^ Hit all the points I wanted except JT.

 

I believe it was AJP who mentioned on 1090 that if they traded for JT they would want him to sign an extension (of at least 2yrs), so basically getting 4 yrs control... If such is the case we would be foolish not to go get him.. teams keep droping out.. Braves offered Riley #46 +++ for JT and ultimately dropped out (or appear to have done so)... Pads could easily lead with Mejia #23 (no need for him/Hedges and JT in SD)... or Hedges (if Marlins prefer).. None of the remaining teams would match that (Reds could with Tramell #17), because Marlins would likely want a young MLB C or C prospect in return and we have Hedges or Mejia.. and could offer way better secondary pieces in such a package... a C situation of JT/Hedges or JT/Mejia would be the envy of MLB.. AGAIN I wouldn't do this deal unless we had an extension in place with JT for at least +2 extra years..

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 16, 2018, 4:32 pm

“Well with Syndergaard now our for sure”.

 

What did I miss?

Is this based on the Mets signing a Catcher?

 

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 16, 2018, 4:47 pm

Quote from David Nevin on December 16, 2018, 4:32 pm

“Well with Syndergaard now our for sure”.

 

What did I miss?

Is this based on the Mets signing a Catcher?

 

 

That appears to be his take.....

Quote from fenn68 on December 16, 2018, 5:06 pm

Well Ramos was the best hitting catcher (wRC+) in 2018 .... Mets needed RHH offense and a catcher and filled that bill. Need more RP (everyone does) but there is a sea of FA RP on the market. Need to upgrade from Lagares in CF ... maybe but more from injury issues than performance (he has been a positive WAR player). If not Pollack, there are a few out there for cheap insurance (Nimmo played some CF for them last year). If they trade, they have prospects than could deliver them a legit CF option. Bottom line, unless the #1 piece in the return is a top flight CF (no not Margot) Syndergaard will not be the trade chip.

Syndergaard is expected to only make around $6MM this season so not a cost issue and, if he lives up to expectations, he can be traded at the deadline - next winter is the Mets just implode this year if they feel then need to escape the arbitration salaries ... but doubt that is the critical path for them.

Quote from fenn68 on December 16, 2018, 5:37 pm

Maybe we should shift our dreaming back to Cleveland (and Kluber). Cleveland has cleared a lot of 2019 payroll with the moves of Encarnacion - Alonso - Gomes but might like to move more in 2019 ... remember Kipnis is a FA after the season and will save them a lot starting in 2020. All the while they still are the presumptive favorites in the AL Central and still want a roster to win it.

Baseline Cleveland does not have an OF worthy of the ML let alone a contender .... yes the Padres actually have more potent OF. Consider 2018 as a baseline:

Martin (30, LHH CF) ........ 318 AB / 747 OPS ... he is their best OF, FA after the season

Allen (25, # CF/LF) ..........  265 AB / 654 OPS

Naquin (27, RF)  ...............  174 AB / 651 OPS

Luplow (25, corner) ..........    92 AB / 631 OPS

Zimmer (26, CF corner)....   106 AB / 611 OPS

That is really bad. SD has Reyes (.838), Renfroe (.805), Myers (763), Cordero (.746) for corner spots .... left out Margot / Jankowski since neither represent improvement over Martin in CF. Padres could deal one (or two) that could significantly upgrade the Indians OF.

Indians would also benefit by clearing $17.0 - 17.5 - 18.0MM over the next three years. Note that I don't see any hot shot OF near term in their prospect list ... they really need OF.

Now before we dismiss Myers in such a deal because of his contract ... he only would cost $3MM for 2019 while they save $17MM from Kluber ... then in 2020 Myers $17MM increase to $20MM is covered with the departure of Kipnis and they still save $17.5MM. Cleveland stays in good financial shape. 2021 Santana is a FA and even more is saved. So could be structured not to hurt either Cleveland or SD going forward.

Clearly not a one for one arrangement but Myers + one of (Renfroe - Reyes - Cordoba) + Yates (they need a lot of RP help and he has 2 control years) + a near term quality pitching prospect (Allen) + a catching prospect (Allen). That mix could help Cleveland a lot in 2019-20 to win while SD still has the remaining 2 corner OF to start while preserving Hedges / Mejia.

Don't really care which two OF Cleveland would want but would like to move Myers contract. If Cleveland preferred Renfroe and Cordoba would be fine with me. Padres only pick up the $17MM and still stay under $100MM payroll with room for a 3B add.

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then there is Greinke!