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#31 · October 31, 2018, 12:05 pm
Quote from David Nevin on October 31, 2018, 10:56 amRealistically speaking what are the odds we sign Kikuchi from japan?
I know Makita is a close friend of his so that may at least help as would being on the West Coast I would think.
But do the Padres have serious enough interest for $15-20 mil posting fees and a possible $100 mil deal?
Or will we lose him to Seattle, the Dodgers or the Angels........or another larger market team like we always do?
Low. Couple of points:
1. the Makita factor may be zip since a recent report (speculation) was that the Padres may buy out his 2019 contract and he would return to Japan.
2. seem to recall are report a month or so ago suggesting that Kikuchi value may have dropped in the last year or two with a bit less production ... those $100K projections stemmed from his earlier work. Also, some question as to whether he actually wants to jump.
3. Not that the Padres don't need SP but that is the strength of the near term (and long term) minors leagues that are on the come. IF the Padres had that money to spend (they do) ... would that be better served targeting some decent bats? A question as to where they want to bet their money.
#32 · October 31, 2018, 12:19 pm
Quote from fenn68 on October 30, 2018, 7:32 amWould guess that Preller will try to market Myers ... but not eat any (or not at least much) of his contract. (Keep an eye our for Philly as a potential match if Preller just wants to move the salary but without payroll pressure don't expect that is a motivator).
Since I don't see much potential difference in Myers vs. Renfroe in overall on-field production (and both about the same age) .... and Renfroe is coming off a good power season, low cost, controllable I could see a Renfroe trade yielding a better return thus in the bigger picture being better for the Padres down the road. Gives Myers 2019 (which is basically a $6MM contract year) a chance to build some value for a future move. More of a sell high on Renfroe and avoid selling low on Myers.
As always it is about the best return (and net advantage to the Padres) and not moving any specific player ... so sort of indifferent in dealing Myers or Renfroe or Reyes or Cordero as long as the player(s) received outweigh the player lost in the 2020-22 window.
Could a potential landing spot for Myers/Renfroe possibly be SEA? Im not sure the quality of their system after all the trades recently, but Dipoto does like to keep going for it and tends to prefer MLB players over MiL. If they take Myers and most of his salary, then the return would not need to be much IMO. If they prefer Renfroe, then I dont know if they have the players to swing that deal.
#33 · October 31, 2018, 12:20 pm
Plus reading a bit about the weird GM hire in NYM, they are not going to rebuild. So it seems no trade of deGrom and/or Syndergard is in the future, especially this offseason. How is their OF/1B situation? Could they be a spot for Myers? Might have to be a salary for salary type trade, since the Mets only have a possible $15M for adds this offseason unless the owners crack open the wallet a bit more. Do they have a higher priced veteran SP that maybe needs a change of scenery?
#34 · October 31, 2018, 1:14 pm
Quote from Booster SD on October 31, 2018, 12:20 pmPlus reading a bit about the weird GM hire in NYM, they are not going to rebuild. So it seems no trade of deGrom and/or Syndergard is in the future, especially this offseason. How is their OF/1B situation? Could they be a spot for Myers? Might have to be a salary for salary type trade, since the Mets only have a possible $15M for adds this offseason unless the owners crack open the wallet a bit more. Do they have a higher priced veteran SP that maybe needs a change of scenery?
How the Mets new GM will act is a complete mystery and the willingness for the Wilpons put more money into salaries is also a real unknown. Would not have expected anything else than the declaration they want to contend .... and with that SP staff possible IF they can add some bats and RP. Will they?
One of their top prospects is a AAA 1B ... so not likely to go that route. With Cespedes probably out for most of the season might want an OF but would not likely want Myers contract (might go for Renfroe but not a compelling set of prospects to make a deal but possible). I would give it a low match.
#35 · October 31, 2018, 1:34 pm
A deal with Seattle is possible. They had a very good 2018 and likely Dipoto thinks they can (should) contend.
IF they allow Cruz go via FA (and given his age and potential contract demands) might. Myers might fit. Although his contract is heavy from 2020-22 his 2019 hit is less than $6MM. So, Seattle could handle the cash flow.
Seattle possibly has the worst farm system in MLB ... pushing them to take the contract without prospects to offer. Actually (my view) their top two prospects don't excite me and may not even be a good fit for the Padres. However, their #1 draft pick in 2018 (college RHP) or a DSL high ceiling OF might entice Preller who will not deal Myers just to move the contract. Not sure Renfroe fits Seattle but clearly is cheaper .... but that deal would require prospects so more difficult to balance.
#36 · October 31, 2018, 3:07 pm
I'm going to be fascinated to see how many of the "move Myers" voices of today are the same as the "can you believe they gave up on him!?!?!" voices of the future.
#37 · October 31, 2018, 4:08 pm
Count me in the “keep Myers” camp.
While I understand why some want him gone I think we need him.
I also think we are done with trades for prospects.
We need major league producers......IMO we are in the “trade prospects for major league players” stage of
this rebuild.
We don’t need to save money.....and we don’t need prospects.....so what is the purpose of trading Wil Myers?
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David Jay
#38 · October 31, 2018, 4:09 pm
Quote from David Jay on October 31, 2018, 3:07 pmI'm going to be fascinated to see how many of the "move Myers" voices of today are the same as the "can you believe they gave up on him!?!?!" voices of the future.
Should be about all of them ... if he does well and the return doesn't.
I am guessing Preller doesn't care if the move is Myers, Renfroe, Reyes, or Cordero IF the return player(s) makes the team better in his estimation. So, I guess, that "can you believe they gave up on him" will surface on whichever one is dealt.
Personally, more interested in the quality of the return than who is traded.
#39 · October 31, 2018, 4:18 pm
Are you interested in A-AA prospects or major league players?
Just curious.
I could see trading one corner outfielder but other than that I’m for trading prospects to improve the ML team.
I absolutely love having the best Farm system in baseball.....but only because it should one day lead to a good major league team.
If the goal is to improve the Padres......and building the Farm is for this same goal....lisn’t now the time to be trading prospects for proven ML producers?
And if not now.....when?
#40 · October 31, 2018, 4:32 pm
Quote from David Nevin on October 31, 2018, 4:08 pmCount me in the “keep Myers” camp.
While I understand why some want him gone I think we need him.
I also think we are done with trades for prospects.
We need major league producers......IMO we are in the “trade prospects for major league players” stage of
this rebuild.
We don’t need to save money.....and we don’t need prospects.....so what is the purpose of trading Wil Myers?
More of "it depends" view on dealing for ML types for "prospects" or trading "prospects" for ML types.
If some team puts on the table a AAA high ceiling prospect at a position of need .... might want to deal ML talent for that "prospect". e.g. if Cinn puts Senzel (3B) or Atlanta puts Wright (potential upper part of the rotation) giving up some ML talent might make sense (don't expect either of those scenarios to play out). Do agree the day of targeting of low A ball prospects is ending unless it is part of roster cleaning and that is the best offer.
Agree that the Padres are getting close to using "prospects" in deals ... the glut on the 40 man will be an issue for the next few years and dealing some prospects might be the best use ... potential a package of several prospects for one compelling ML player. A lot of prospect pitchers ... everyone needs more pitching .... Padres have a good set of assets that should appeal as long as the keep a critical mass of the best arms for their own use.
I still am of the opinion that they are one year away from a significant shift in approach (baring a compelling add). The mass of arms and the key bats (Allen, Naylor, Tatis, Reed, Olivares) need to push a bit closer to near ML ready to allow Preller to get max value. 2019 is going to be a struggle no matter what moves are made ... so build more trade value (options) by biting the bullet.
Of course, if CINN wants to deal Senzel for Lucchesi ... or CINN wants to deal Senzel for Allen and Quantrill .... or Atlanta wants to deal Wright for Renfroe and Stammen .... ???????
It depends.