Quote from Brian Connelly on December 10, 2018, 10:48 am

Quote from Booster SD on December 10, 2018, 7:32 am

I could see a 3 team trade scenario happening where NYM gets Realmuto, SD gets Thor, and MIA ends up with about 3-5 prospects and Hedges or Mejia.

GREAT idea that does make sense!   First stab:

Pads get: Thor-3 yrs, "50" grade prospect from Marlins-2nd choice

Mets get: Realmuto-2, Myers or Renfroe (RH OF)-4 to 5, "Paddack" (any P but Gore from Pads - 1st choice)-6, "50" grade prospect from Padres, "50" grade prospect from Marlins-1st choice, Robbie Erlin-2 or Clay Richard-1 or Bryan Mitchell-3

Marlins get:  Mejia-6, Nimmo-4 or Conforto-3 (LH OF), "Morejon or Baez" (any P but Gore from Pads - 2nd choice)-6,

So each team gives:

Pads:  MLB OF, THREE top 50-100 prospects, one "50" grade prospect, & #5 MLB SP "backfill"

Mets:  Thor & MLB OF

Marlins: Realmuto & two "50" grade prospects

Padres get their man, resolve the OF logjam, open up the 40-man roster, retain significant $ to direct to Infield now, but pay STEEP price in top end prospects.

Marlins are deep in prospects, but lack "55" grade top 100; so gain proven MLB OF and 2 top 50 range prospects (Bonus: from D.R. & Cuba re: Miami) in exchange for 2 lesser prospects.

The big question is if this, centered around Realmuto is "enough" for the Mets?  RH corner OF maybe better "balance" in OF, but Mets don't seem like they're looking for that trade.  Myers does offer positional versatility (1B) & upside, but Myers + Realmuto probably 15 MM > Thor + Nimmo/Conforto in 2020.  Does 2 yrs Realmuto + 6 yrs prospect SP > WAR lost with 3 yrs of  Thor? Comes down to how much they want Realmuto...

... So if Pads get involved, they MIGHT be able to "force" Mets to yield Syndergaard to get their C vs. having to spend more $ on a FA they don't like as much, or make a trade with less leverage for Hedges or someone else.

 

Quote from Booster SD on December 10, 2018, 11:42 am

Listening to MLB radio on XM and HOU is looking for a LF/DH with a bat, would prefer LH but not set in stone. Wonder if they would have interest in Myers. SD would not be looking for a high end prospect back, so that would fit the needs of HOU in not including Tucker or Whitley. Also, many of the talking heads are thinking that HOU has not settled their needs at C, so including Hedges may increase the return a bit.

Quote from fenn68 on December 10, 2018, 12:18 pm

Quote from Booster SD on December 10, 2018, 11:42 am

Listening to MLB radio on XM and HOU is looking for a LF/DH with a bat, would prefer LH but not set in stone. Wonder if they would have interest in Myers. SD would not be looking for a high end prospect back, so that would fit the needs of HOU in not including Tucker or Whitley. Also, many of the talking heads are thinking that HOU has not settled their needs at C, so including Hedges may increase the return a bit.

Makes some sense to me except maybe Renfroe rather than Myers for LF (1B with offensive profile are relatively easy to find cheaply). Hedges makes the most sense with a major catching hole for a premier pitching staff.

Two points on Houston: 1) they are built to win now so "experience" is important (i.e. Hedges over Mejia); and 2) money going forward could be an issue with Verlander and Cole becoming FA and having to be replaced or extended plus the soon need to pay Correa ... they have some future up ticks that have to be considered (i.e. the lower cost Renfroe over the big commitment to Myers). Their #1 prospect Tucker is a LHH OF in AAA (Top 10 in MLB) but they just are not ready to commit to him for 2019 yet will not deal them (see Realmuto).

They are not moving either Tucker or #2 Whitley ... then their better prospects are dominated by pitching (not exactly a Padre need over hitters). I guess they have one hitter ... MLB #42 Yordan Alvarez (LHH corner OF with a partial AAA season) ... that could be interesting. Might be a fall back deal for both sides if other options to Houston don't materialize and the Padres can get a more interesting return for Hedges, Myers / Renfroe.

The basics seem there .. but not quite for both side.

Quote from Booster SD on December 10, 2018, 12:46 pm

Wasnt sure if HOU has some mid level 3B prospect stuck in AAA that could use a chance in SD, and a better option than signing a Moose type.

Quote from Booster SD on December 10, 2018, 12:50 pm

Saw on MLBTR that more than likely a trade for Kluber/Bauer is going to "require" a taking on of either Encarnacion or Kipnis. IF SD is willing to take on the contract for Encarnacion (2 years at $20.5M AAV) to get Kluber, does that make SD a more conducive trade partner than LAD that would have a harder time taking Kipnis with LAD possibly still in on Harper and trying to stay under the luxury tax threshold. I know that Verdugo is more popular than Renfroe, but if we take $41M off CLE hands instead of the $14M for Kipnis does Renfroe/Reyes become a more palpable option? Plus, CLE has to be happy with the last MiL SP prospect received from SD in Kluber, right?

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 10, 2018, 1:00 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 10, 2018, 10:44 am

Quote from David Nevin on December 10, 2018, 10:26 am

Mejia to Marlins makes too much sense to actually happen.

 

Mejia to the Marlins ... yes

Mejia to the Marlins for Realmuto ... no from the Marlins

Mejia (and prospects not named Tatis or Gore) for Realmuto ... no from the Marlins (think they can do better)

IF Mejia is believed to be that good ... why would not the Padres be better served keeping Mejia (low cost / 6 years) and deal Hedges, deal the other prospects, spend the money to fill holes that actually need filling.

 

I think the reason they want Realmuto is because we already "know" he's a major league all star and also because

he can be flipped...possibly for Thor or possibly later at the deadline or next off season.

While Mejia is a top prospect there is still always that chance he never reaches his potential...and certainly a good chance

he is never as good a hitter as Realmuto.

I'm leary of giving up Mejia for 2 years of Realmuto.....doesn't fit our window very well.

But if he can be traded for Thor or someone else?

Then yeah....

As far as the Marlins wanting Mejia I would think it would be a no brainer to get a younger,cheaper,longer controlled Catcher plus whatever else they would get to make it work.

A straight up trade with SD I would think would cost Mejia/Quantril/L.Allen or something along those lines.

Quote from sportwarrior on December 10, 2018, 1:09 pm

For the record, I don't personally put a lot of stock in the Realmuto rumors. I don't doubt we've discussed him with the Marlins, or that our interest is genuine, but I also don't think this amounts to much more than the team doing its due diligence in assessing the cost of any and all targets of opportunity this offseason.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 10, 2018, 2:39 pm

As far as the Marlins wanting Mejia I would think it would be a no brainer to get a younger,cheaper,longer controlled Catcher plus whatever else they would get to make it work.

A straight up trade with SD I would think would cost Mejia/Quantril/L.Allen or something along those lines.

I just don't know...  top 25-50 / top 100 / former top 100 all 6 years control for  2 yrs of Realmuto?

Definitely upgrades C, but it's already one of our deepest positions.  Granted makes Hedges available & increases his value, so could recoup some of this outlay, but unless there's a direct path to another deal centered around Hedges, feels like the wrong "1 big move" to make?  I'm with FENN that prefer 1 year or 3 year+ deals over 2 yr contracts since unlikely to make playoffs 1st year.

Also this-yrs of control:  Realmuto-2, A. Allen-6, Campusano-6

is way riskier than:  Hedges-4, Mejia-6, A. Allen-6, Campusano-6

Quote from fenn68 on December 10, 2018, 4:00 pm

Taking a step back ... and looking to directly address the real needs since the degree of difficulty of combo moves is astronomical baring the immediate 3-way deal. So, given the window to begin contending (in the Padres minds) is 2020-21 which lead to adding players with 3+ years control. Add that their major holes / needs for that window is 3B  and front line SP.

However, they have nothing "set" that they should rely on at any of the other starting offense position or any of the 5 SP slots. They have some trade chips (prospects / ML players) and some money to spend but hard to take the assets on a last place team and turn them into contending team unless some of the key prospects deliver for the Padres.

This is where the "Pick Six" strategy used in horse race betting (in a modified version) needs to be employed. The key is to bet on single specific players to succeed at a few positions ... create multiple options in the undecided positions  ... use the duplicates in the positions were a single player was identified and non-critical prospects to deal to fill the holes. IF you gamble correctly, there is a CHANCE the mix leverages up the talent to a contender.

To that end, they must lock in on Tatis and Urias and one of Hedges or Mejia. Hosmer is there. That puts one catcher and potentially two or three OF out of Myers, Renfroe, Margot, Reyes, Cordero, Jankowski available for trade (the ones that go depends more on the return than which is dealt ) not all that sure than any one eclipses the others in future value. On the pitching, need to lock into the top 5 SP for the 2020-21 (not MLB rankings but internal assessment) and put the next level out for trade (again depending on the level of return). So, IF they think Paddack, Strahm, Allen, Lamet, Lauer are the best bets ... the Lauer - Nix - Quantrill - Baez - Morejon - Lawson - Avila are move to trade assets.

With all those pieces in play should be able to score an upper rotation established SP and a legit ML 3B and maybe even upgrade a second added SP or an OF. Keep in mind there is some financial flexibility.

===== now this will NEVER happen:

Kluber: Lauer - Renfroe - Morejon - Naylor

Seager (with some salary relief): Baez - Quantrill

Gray: Nix - Perdomo