Quote from fenn68 on December 3, 2018, 8:32 am

Still some speculation in play:

1. the Segura deal will have more in it than reported so far with players going both ways (likely prospects to Seattle and a veteran like Nicasio to Philly to balance the money a bit)

2. Assuming Nicasio is the added piece net of all the deals should save Seattle around $115MM over the next 5 years with $100MM in the last 3 years.

3. It appears that Seattle will work on flipping Bruce, Swarzak, and Santana .... eating some salary but adding more prospects and end up reducing their payroll liability even more. Reasonable sure they can market those three for 50 cents on the dollar. Remember this is Dipoto and he does trade.

4. Maybe of some strategic importance to Seattle but they dealt Cano (5 years, no trade) and Segura (4 years, no trade) and got back Bruce (2 years), Swarzak (1 year), Santana (2 years) plus some level of prospects. Note: maybe why Myers did not appeal to them (4 year contract). They actually are down to Seager as their only player under contract past 2020 ... and clearly the want to deal him.

That all clears the deck for a total rebuild not boxed in by existing contracts ... especially if they believed they would not beat out Houston in the AL West or get that last wild card slot with the roster they had.

I will throw in some very idle speculation (purely mine) .... Companies often like to clear the books of long term liabilities (that would be long term, high cost, no trade contracts in this case) as a precursor to selling the company or merging ... more enticing to the buyer (and maybe a higher price). When the move Seager (and they will), zero liabilities after 2020 ... will we see a sale of the Mariners?

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Back to the Padres ... can't figure out why they could not out bid PHIL for Segura with just prospects given the Seattle direction. Segura is good and for a good SS that is an acceptable contract and taking it all would not have been unrealistic (I can accept Seattle not wanting Myers' contract). Any chance Segura would not waive his no trade for SD (maybe just refuse until a more preferred destination is found by Seattle)? Ends up in PHIL ... looking like a contender ... maybe that is more to his liking?

Quote from fenn68 on December 3, 2018, 8:45 am

Domino effects:

Philly picks up Segura (SS) and drops Santana (1B) allowing them to get Hoskins (the worst defensive LF in MLB) back to his home at 1B. Opens a big need in the Philly OF (Harper?) plus if they can convince Machado for 3B they have made some significant moves. If it is just Machado to 3B (more likely) ... frees up Franco (sadly) and Preller at one point was "interested" .... Philly needs OF / Padres need 3B: Myers for Franco?

Atlanta signs Donaldson but still has a need in RF ... are they more motivated to make a move after the Philly / NYM moves?

NYM trades for Cano but still has a need for CF/catcher ... are they more motivated to make a move after Philly/ ATL moves?

WASH has done little except for Gomes ... are they more motivated to make a big move to offset what Philly / ATL / NYM have done? (think upping the Harper bid)

NL West appears to be heading for a battle of adds if they want to win. Atlanta and Philly are potential good home for either Myers or Renfroe (buyers choice) to clear some OF. (hopefully not Franco though).

Quote from Booster SD on December 3, 2018, 9:01 am

STL is said to want a corner OF bat, and looking to move Fowler. They would prefer to go LHH for that Corner OF bat, however maybe we could make a Myers/Fowler exchange work. Then we could put together a package of Margot, Hedges, Yates or Stammen, and Luchessi for Thor. Fowler as a switch hitter gives SD the ability to go all RHH OF or LHH OF based on pitching match ups with a combo of Renfroe, Fowler, Reyes, Jank, and Cordero. Then we take the Myers savings and spend on 3B/SS, and maybe Eovaldi. In 2020 we could have a rotation of Eovaldi, Thor, Laur, Richards, and Allen or Paddock.

Quote from fenn68 on December 3, 2018, 9:34 am

Quote from Booster SD on December 3, 2018, 9:01 am

STL is said to want a corner OF bat, and looking to move Fowler. They would prefer to go LHH for that Corner OF bat, however maybe we could make a Myers/Fowler exchange work. Then we could put together a package of Margot, Hedges, Yates or Stammen, and Luchessi for Thor. Fowler as a switch hitter gives SD the ability to go all RHH OF or LHH OF based on pitching match ups with a combo of Renfroe, Fowler, Reyes, Jank, and Cordero. Then we take the Myers savings and spend on 3B/SS, and maybe Eovaldi. In 2020 we could have a rotation of Eovaldi, Thor, Laur, Richards, and Allen or Paddock.

Fowler? Well past his use by date (mark him down a a BIG StL mistake). He will be 33 next season and is owed $16.5MM for each of the next 3 seasons (ages 33-34-35). Plus last season when StL needed their big OF investment to help the contend he pushed out a -1.4 WAR (sub-.200 BA) and barely could get in the line-up (289 AB). I can see why StL wants OF help ... Fowler is an expensive flop. Would not want him in SD eating up any playing time.

Trade Myers ... sure ... but I think they can get a better (and cheaper) return.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 3, 2018, 9:40 am

If Seattle moves Santana,Bruce etc. then it makes more sense to me.

Which makes sense....to me.:)

Maybe Preller is taking a bit of a "wait and see" approach this year as things could change drastically for a few teams

depending on where Machado and Harper land.

If Phil. gets one,or both,added to what they've already done then it does seem Atl/Wash/NYM may decide to make

another move(or 2).

Maybe at that point Myers/Renfroe/Hedges will become more desirable to them.

 

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 3, 2018, 10:11 am

Quote from David Nevin on December 3, 2018, 9:40 am

If Seattle moves Santana,Bruce etc. then it makes more sense to me.

Which makes sense....to me.:)

Maybe Preller is taking a bit of a "wait and see" approach this year as things could change drastically for a few teams

depending on where Machado and Harper land.

If Phil. gets one,or both,added to what they've already done then it does seem Atl/Wash/NYM may decide to make

another move(or 2).

Maybe at that point Myers/Renfroe/Hedges will become more desirable to them.

 

 

 

Could make for an interesting Winter Meeting next week with enough early moves to get some of the teams to deal (or sign FA) more aggressively. Even non-NL East teams may see the writing on the wall and want to get their fixes before the AL East teams crank it up. Sounds as though PHIL - WASH - ATL - NYM all have salary space to work with and really only ATL has depth of prospects.

Would be surprised if after the meetings the Padres still had both Myers and Renfroe. But???

On the flip side with Segura out of the picture (and I did want him) and a good chance Tatis spends a few months in AAA plus Spangenberg / Villanueva off the roster ... less interested in add pitching to a bad staff than finding a 3B and a bridge SS. They could add either Kluber or Syndergaard and with that INF lose more games in 2019. What are we dealing with: Urias (an unproven 21 year old rookie) - Guerra (flat out can't hit .200 in the ML) - Garcia (waiver claim) - Pirela? Tatis at some point (but still a 20 year old rookie) and maybe France (a non-Top 30 prospect). Be afraid ... be very afraid.

Odds of SD ending up with either Franco or Seager have risen dramatically with the Segura to Philly deal. Since I really don't want Franco ... maybe if the deal is right Seager makes sense if only for his LHH power and defense.

Quote from fenn68 on December 3, 2018, 10:13 am

It is only money:

Dec. 3: Major League clubs have been informed that Kikuchi will be available to them beginning tomorrow morning at 8am ET, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 3, 2018, 10:26 am

What is the chance Mejia plays some 3b?

5%?

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 3, 2018, 11:01 am

Quote from David Nevin on December 3, 2018, 10:26 am

What is the chance Mejia plays some 3b?

5%?

 

 

< 1% and only in an emergency. Cleveland did work him out at 3B and apparently he was very bad and quickly ended that idea. Better chance we see him in LF as a spot player. Most reports suggest he really, really wants to remain a catcher plus he still has a lot to learn about catching, calling games in the ML so moving him around may inhibit his development at his primary position.