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#251 · December 1, 2018, 10:23 am
As I said before, don't think the trade value of Hedges is as high as some would like it to be, especially if you consider all the potential buyers could have bid more for Gomes (arguable a better 2018).
With that as a backdrop, Hedges does have a trade market given the long list of teams needing a catcher. Of course, first it must be determined if the Padres are ready to commit to Mejia as the full time catcher or would find it better to have split catching duties with the more full phase in Mejia (or he just fails).
As for Hedges trade value ... more so for a team with offense that embraces a defensive first catcher (so not the Mets or likely the Indians). However, might want to start evaluation of Houston as a home ... need a catcher badly for an elite SP staff (they can go defense first) and considering a former catcher in Hinch is managing ... would be a fit. Not sure what the return could be stand alone but Houston is also seeking 1B/DH/CF. Don't see them having excess INF or an impact SP they will deal.
However, in the domino theory, they have some quality prospect arms ... deal for one of them and that may free up some Padre prospect arms to be dealt in turn or, if part of the deal moves some combo of Myers / Renfroe / Margot / Cordero / Reyes along with Hedges .... Tucker LLH OF a top prospect in AAA as part of the return? Not likely but need to keep the mind open to alternatives rather than focus on Kluber / Syndergaard.
#252 · December 1, 2018, 10:31 am
Quote from David Nevin on December 1, 2018, 10:09 am"Hedges / Margot are not that."
What about Mejia/Reyes?
Or Myers/Mejia?
Those options would be decent upgrades offensively for the Mets I would think.
No place for Myers to play in NY (not going to repeat CF and the corners actually are hitting with Nimmo and Conforto) plus they are leaving 1B for their #2 prospect (Alonso) who is ready. Mejia has not hit in the ML ... Mets would take him but could (or should) get a lot more proven offense if they move Thor.
Given Myers contract is still at $64MM ... teams may be better off keeping their assets and just signing Grandal / Ramos for C or Pollack / McCutcheon for OF.
#253 · December 1, 2018, 1:52 pm
An aside on the Cano trade ... trying to set some logic from the NYM side ... since adding a 36 year old 2B at $24MM per year for the next 5 years seems just wrong ... yes he can hit now in a couple of years can he still hit and field without a DH in the NL?
a. they apparently really want to win now and needed offense ... added value that Cano has some appeal in NY
b. to take that $120MM liability they needed to be "compensated" so dumping Bruce / Swarzak really offsets the 2019 money and part of the 2020 (the rest cushioned by Seattle kicking in about $20MM ... not sure on the timing.)
c. that still leaves 3 more years BUT after 2020 Cespedes comes off the books at a larger annual salary so Cano' fits right in
Combine all that and the NYM stay around $135MM ... preserving their apparent budget target and leaving some room to still add (Grandal?) ... note that they want to extend DeGrom after 2020 and that will be big money.
d. Diaz (at league minimum with 4 control years) is the premier closer and would command a premium return and could argue that the 3 Mets prospects was the haul for him (albeit with high risk of development).
So for a net of about $60MM and some far off prospects the Mets end up with an elite hitter and the top closer in MLB today in a quest to win NOW. If they tried that in the current open market ... the closer would cost that much so seems like a strategic win for the METS even if Cano fades away in 3-5 years. Assuming they actually win.
Seattle on the other hand cleared a player on a no trade contract and net saved $60MM while adding some prospects in part of a rebuild. Losing Diaz is annoying but an elite closer on a rebuilding team is not a great asset. I guess this is a strategic win for the Mariners given their direction.
A WIN-WIN deal?
#254 · December 2, 2018, 9:43 am
Any interest in Kyle Seager? 31 years old 3 years 60 mil left on contract. Had a bad year but has been decent otherwise. How much would Seattle have to eat to make it worth it ? 10 or 15 mil ? making it 3 for 45 mil or maybe attached with Haniger and less money for better prospects ? Would love some sort of deal for Haniger , add Segura instead of Seager (not likely for Seattle) and I would give up a decent package of prospects Paddock or Logan Allen not both and others
#255 · December 2, 2018, 10:18 am
Quote from 84padres on December 2, 2018, 9:43 amAny interest in Kyle Seager? 31 years old 3 years 60 mil left on contract. Had a bad year but has been decent otherwise. How much would Seattle have to eat to make it worth it ? 10 or 15 mil ? making it 3 for 45 mil or maybe attached with Haniger and less money for better prospects ? Would love some sort of deal for Haniger , add Segura instead of Seager (not likely for Seattle) and I would give up a decent package of prospects Paddock or Logan Allen not both and others
Yes but they would have to eat a big chunk of his contract ... clearly not a $20MM/year player now and since that is a 3 year commitment high risk of any rebound.
The good: Seager is "just 31" ... so not a real old guy ... LHH power (a Padre need) ... a plus defensive 3B (a Padre need both position-wise and just to upgrade overall defense) ... he plays almost every game (good since the Padres don't really have a back-up for 3B).
The bad: his 2018 was poor offensively with a slash line of 221/273/400 and at 31 was that the first sign of diminished skills? Then the contract is bad for his skill level.
Since the Padres don't have a 3B in line for the next few years (and the jury is still out on Potts arriving in 2021) ... I would be interested in Seager if the price was adjusted downward. My understand is that Seattle will move him if given the right offer.
IF the Padres gave some legit prospects (a Seattle need as witnessed in the Cano deal) clearly they will eat some money .... maybe buy him down to $10MM which might be his market value (see Moustakas' FA projection of $8MM/yr for 2 years). Think Seager is better but not that much, so going $10MM/yr for 3 years seems market.
Seattle saves $30MM and gets some prospects ... should appeal
SD spends $30MM to shore up a major hole and gives up some of their minor league surplus ... Seattle does not seem to need near term prospect based on the Cano deal and the depth of the Padres' system is in the lower minors ... could fit.
Preller calling!
#256 · December 2, 2018, 1:58 pm
There are a lot of people out there with much better swing mechanics analysis than mine, but if you look at footage from 2018 when his back foot was injured (broken toe and tendon damage in the foot), he seems completely different than when he had a base to work with. If you're confident in his health returning, he seems like a VERY good rebound candidate.
#257 · December 2, 2018, 3:03 pm
Taking Seager off their hands....even if they pay some,would seem to lower our cost in prospects for Segura.
Myers/Stammen/Quantrill/Lauer/Mejia for Seager/Segura/Leake?
Maybe they want more RP prospects instead of Stammen.
We pay an amount enough to make it happen?
#258 · December 2, 2018, 4:21 pm
Quote from David Nevin on December 2, 2018, 3:03 pmTaking Seager off their hands....even if they pay some,would seem to lower our cost in prospects for Segura.
Myers/Stammen/Quantrill/Lauer/Mejia for Seager/Segura/Leake?
Maybe they want more RP prospects instead of Stammen.
We pay an amount enough to make it happen?
This sounds at though Seattle would pay the Padres to take Seager ... no need to give up any major talent IF they take on enough money:
- If the trade-happy Mariners have their way, third baseman Kyle Seager will be the next veteran to depart. The club’s willing to do “whatever it takes” to deal Seager, Buster Olney of ESPN writes (subscription required). Long one of the majors’ most underrated players, the 31-year-old Seager is coming off an uncharacteristically rough season and still has a guaranteed $57MM left on his contract. Seager’s presence is no longer needed in Seattle, which is rebuilding and trying to cut payroll, though it could be difficult to deal him on the heels of such a disappointing campaign. With that in mind, Olney suggests the Mariners could either swap Seager for another team’s unwanted contract or package him with one of their best remaining assets (Mitch Haniger or Jean Segura) to get his money off the books.
With Tatis / Urias coming ... only need one of Segura or Seager and it sounds like Seager would be a cheaper get (not a lot of completion for 3B) .... take on $30-35MM of the contract and drop Avila and Lawson to get him (if even that much in needed). Of course, Padres need to think he can rebound from 2018.
Appears that Segura is being pursued by Philadelphia and the NYY so that could be boosting that price. Wild card move ... Philly takes Segura, Seager, and Haniger including 100% of what is owed them (they have the payroll space) and pass on signing Machado. Philly tosses in some prospects to make it look like a trade. Those three will make about $35MM in 2019 (actually Haniger is league minimum so that is all on Segura and Seager). ... same as Machado? Philly would still have payroll room to add a SP (or two).
#259 · December 2, 2018, 5:33 pm
I’d only want Seager if it means getting Segura.
Seager alone...at his contract,would have to be for little to nothing.
Im not ready to assume that Tatis,Potts and Urias are all sure to be stars.
Segura can play either SS or 2B.
Seager can play both 3B and 1B.
Potts is at least 2 years away.
The Padres need offense.
We could use “both” Seager and Segura.
#260 · December 2, 2018, 8:13 pm
Well, we can stop scheming on how we can get Segura, it seems that he is on his way to PHI.