Quote from 3fingersplit on November 29, 2018, 4:38 pm

Quote from David Nevin on November 29, 2018, 1:59 pm

Gotta give up talent to get talent and they are still just prospects.

I thought the same but realized we aren't gonna get an Ace "major league" starter for relief pitchers and

low level prospects.

I would rather include Gore due to his distance to the majors rather than Lucchessi or Paddack or even Logan Allen.

Gore's only 19.....see Espinoza.

I'd be fine with swapping out Hedges with Mejia or not doing it at all...but if you want a realistic shot at an actual trade we're

gonna lose a couple top prospects.

 

 

The entire premise of what AJ Preller is doing is to build this team from within and fans know that better times are coming.

Giving up TOP prospects might be down the road when this team is on the cusp of making a serious run but not now....One "Ace" gets us nowhere if the hitting isn't there

The Astros did it right.....built a very solid team and THEN went after the final pieces that put them over the top....Sometimes the best trade is the one you don't make for the sake of making a trade

Quote from fenn68 on November 29, 2018, 5:24 pm

Not sure of the implications to the Padres IF the rumored Mets-Mariners deal comes down. Assuming the Mets get Cano and Diaz that solves a major part of the stated needs for 2B/offense in Cano and a closer in Diaz. The basic OF with Nimmo / Lagares / Conforto is not bad leaving only catcher a major issue. Assuming the Mariners get a couple of high level prospect (for the minors), a 2B and some bad contracts Bruce and Swarzak they end up getting long term salary relief from the differences in contracts .... Bruce likely gets 1B/DH.

So, Mariners may not have as much pressure to move Segura (besides they have no other SS) and, in turn, less desire to take Myers and his contract. Mets will need a lot more than Hedges or Mejia to pry away Syndergaard (they are now better off keeping him) since they want to compete now.

Basically a Mets-Mariner's deal could kill Padres moves with either team.

On the other hand, Mariners MAY still like to unload Leake (and his 2 year contract) ... Padres still need some stability in the pitching staff ... if the Padres take Leake's contract might only need a marginal prospect or two.

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 29, 2018, 6:37 pm

Quote from David Nevin on October 29, 2018, 10:07 am

Other SP I hope we consider....

Garrett Richards

Nate Eovaldi

Matt Harvey

Tyson Ross

 

Well I got something right.......😉

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 29, 2018, 6:43 pm

Quote from 3fingersplit on November 29, 2018, 4:38 pm

Quote from David Nevin on November 29, 2018, 1:59 pm

Gotta give up talent to get talent and they are still just prospects.

I thought the same but realized we aren't gonna get an Ace "major league" starter for relief pitchers and

low level prospects.

I would rather include Gore due to his distance to the majors rather than Lucchessi or Paddack or even Logan Allen.

Gore's only 19.....see Espinoza.

I'd be fine with swapping out Hedges with Mejia or not doing it at all...but if you want a realistic shot at an actual trade we're

gonna lose a couple top prospects.

 

 

The entire premise of what AJ Preller is doing is to build this team from within and fans know that better times are coming.

Giving up TOP prospects might be down the road when this team is on the cusp of making a serious run but not now....One "Ace" gets us nowhere if the hitting isn't there

The Astros did it right.....built a very solid team and THEN went after the final pieces that put them over the top....Sometimes the best trade is the one you don't make for the sake of making a trade

Then there’s no sense having serious interest in a “top of the rotation” starter.

The Mets aren’t gonna take Myers and a bunch of scrub prospects.

After all.....it’s not like the Padres interest in Noah was my idea......

 

Quote from sportwarrior on November 29, 2018, 9:42 pm

1) Very happy with the Garret Richards acquisition. I've always been a fan of his, and if he can come back strong and healthy in late 2019 or to start 2020 we should have a real nice #2 on our hands.

2) The rumored packages for Syndergaard are a bit more palatable than I'd anticipated. I think I could live with, say, Margot/Mejia/Paddack. If you were to go by transitive trade logic (which I don't), that'd essentially be Margot plus a waiver claim (Brad Hand) and a cheap FA (Fernando Rodney). Pretty nice trade up.

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 29, 2018, 11:40 pm

Quote from fenn68 on November 29, 2018, 5:24 pm

Not sure of the implications to the Padres IF the rumored Mets-Mariners deal comes down. Assuming the Mets get Cano and Diaz that solves a major part of the stated needs for 2B/offense in Cano and a closer in Diaz. The basic OF with Nimmo / Lagares / Conforto is not bad leaving only catcher a major issue. Assuming the Mariners get a couple of high level prospect (for the minors), a 2B and some bad contracts Bruce and Swarzak they end up getting long term salary relief from the differences in contracts .... Bruce likely gets 1B/DH.

So, Mariners may not have as much pressure to move Segura (besides they have no other SS) and, in turn, less desire to take Myers and his contract. Mets will need a lot more than Hedges or Mejia to pry away Syndergaard (they are now better off keeping him) since they want to compete now.

Basically a Mets-Mariner's deal could kill Padres moves with either team.

On the other hand, Mariners MAY still like to unload Leake (and his 2 year contract) ... Padres still need some stability in the pitching staff ... if the Padres take Leake's contract might only need a marginal prospect or two.

Whew!  SO much going on here.  I agree that the M's motivation to do the Segura deal just went way down:  this is a smart, dream scenario for them to get 2 legit prospects back and unload  Cano at the expense of Diaz with $$ still TBD.

Mets obviously think they can compete, but I think Padres are still likely the best positioned team to potentially make the Syndergaard deal; but need to focus more on MLB assets; esp Hedges over Mejia (Mets vet SP's would want to work with Hedges)  How about this:    Padres get:  Syndergaard & CF Juan Lagares (9MM + 0.5 buyout).        Mets get:  Hedges, Yates, Lucchessi OR Lauer, Renfroe.

My sales pitch would be that cheap promising MLB controllable SP PLUS elite setup guy both already familiar with Hedges AND the benefit of him working with your strong SP staff PLUS cheap controllable OF power PLUS net savings of 10 MM in 2019 offsetting that giant salary obligation they just swallowed make Mets more-- not less-- likely to win than just standing pat with injury prone Thor.  SELL that not ridiculous idea of an elite pen and elite defensive C going a long way.

Saw the Mets beat guy who suggested Hedges, Margot, & Gore (no way).  And Margot might be a better fit, but creates a hole on our end.   Lagares is just a salary dump corresponding roster move.   WAS a great defender, but hard to see any way he makes 25-man.  The Mets aren't the Yankees:  Even though Thor is fantastic value at Arb salaries, that differential between him & minimum salary SP gets more significant next 2 years too.

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 30, 2018, 12:10 am

Quote from sportwarrior on November 29, 2018, 9:42 pm

1) Very happy with the Garret Richards acquisition. I've always been a fan of his, and if he can come back strong and healthy in late 2019 or to start 2020 we should have a real nice #2 on our hands.

2) The rumored packages for Syndergaard are a bit more palatable than I'd anticipated. I think I could live with, say, Margot/Mejia/Paddack. If you were to go by transitive trade logic (which I don't), that'd essentially be Margot plus a waiver claim (Brad Hand) and a cheap FA (Fernando Rodney). Pretty nice trade up.

1)  Same here.  After 5 minutes of "WHAT?!?!" it made sense.   Will be interesting to see how they split the salary between the 2 years.  Logically it would be backloaded i.e. 3/12 since unlikely to pitch this year.  But I hope it's the other way around; 10/5 or at least even both years; might as well absorb as much as can in 2019, and why would Richards say "No" to that?

A big potential benefit of this deal to Pads is if Richards is anywhere close to past performance in 2020, they can put a qualifying offer on him after the season.  If they think he's worth qualifying offer $ (15.5-18MM) for 1 season (2020) NOW just 5 months after TJ surgery, obviously he would be worth (at least) that much after 2020.  He's likely to move on as a 32 year old FA.  New compensation system for losing Qualified FA's is less team favorable than in past, but fairer to small market teams.  If Richards got a new deal > 50 MM, I believe Pads would get a draft pick after the 1st round.  <50 MM and it drops to pick after the Comp B selections after 2nd round.

I blasted Preller for essentially valuing a Comp B 2nd round pick at 7.5 MM... what Pads paid Phil Hughes to acquire the pick from the Twins last season.  This is basically the same pick the Pads would gain if Richards did sign with another team in 2021.  While I still think the 7.5 MM "valuation" is WAY too high, it is definitely worth a significant amount.  Obviously if Richards has a great comeback year in 2020 & it becomes a pick after the first round, that "value" goes dramatically higher.

Can make the argument that the nominal incentives in the deal, if all hit due to him pitching well & staying healthy, are re-gained many fold by the higher compensation pick.  I realize I'm putting the cart insanely ahead of the horse, but the subjective value of these picks is very significant.

2) LOL!  I do that "transitive" thing all the time thinking of Mejia as a waiver claim!   If you want to take it even further, could call Margot "just 1/4 of Craig Kimbrel"...

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2018, 9:05 am

Following the national level speculation surrounding the NYM - SEATTLE deal aftermath now that the Mets appear to be all in on winning now and Seattle appear to be going into major rebuild mode .... Padres deals for Syndergaard and / or Segura may be still alive.

===========

Syndergaard .... why would the Mets deal him now? One new twist is the believe the Mets are going all in on extending deGrom (at a $30MM AAV long term deal) then the will not extend Syndergaard (likely requiring similar money) since that much money into 2 pitchers is a bad risk. Since Snydergaard has 3 control years if dealt now a chance for a quality return to fill their other two objectives for this winter .... C and CF.

Rosenthal speculated (not a rumor yet) that a deal with the Padres for ML ready assets might appeal: Hedges for the C slot .... Margot for the CF slot ... and a high quality SP prospect (keep in mind that Syndergaard is gone and next winter Wheeler is a FA and Vargas is on club option plus not much high quality SP prospects near term for the Mets. Given the Padres ownership's stated goal of contending in 2020-21 and the need for a top of the rotation SP ... something that could work for both side.

============

Segura ... OK they seem to be going the teardown route and willing to accept (actually probably want) prospects not high cost ML players .... Rosenthal speculated that Segura is still available. Might have to scrap Myers as a component, but the Padres have prospects especially if not limited to ML ready to seal the deal. Preller is in on Segura ... has the assets ... pretty sure a deal can be made here ... especially if the are willing to take Segura's contract and offer players at league minimum or prospects.

==============

Could be interesting Winter Meetings.

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 30, 2018, 10:06 am

On the other hand, Mariners MAY still like to unload Leake (and his 2 year contract) ... Padres still need some stability in the pitching staff ... if the Padres take Leake's contract might only need a marginal prospect or two

Is there ANY other MLB SP who has made 30+ starts 7 years in a row like Leake?  M's have him for either 2 or 3 years @ 13.5 MM either way.  For durability alone that's really good value, and also a career 1.28 WHIP, ERA just over 4.00.  Having already subtracted Paxton's innings , now (soon) saved big $ & received good prospects on Cano deal, AND Leake has full no trade clause, I think their likelihood of dealing Leake is even lower than Segura.   From Pads POV, they DO need a vet to cover innings in 2019, but Leake & his career 6.1 K/9 IP just doesn't seem like the guy; it would be a double-edged sword to have him making 30 starts/200 IP for next 2 years with his limited ceiling blocking someone in the deep pipeline who may have higher ceiling for those 60 starts & 400 innings

In hindsight he seems like just a convenient "neat" mathmatical match as part of Segura/Myers, but I can't even remember what the M's motivation to even consider that deal was if they were only saving $ in 2019, and were creating 2 holes while filling 1???