Quote from 3fingersplit on November 29, 2018, 1:52 am

Just saw this......changes the trade dynamic in my opinion

https://www.mlb.com/news/franmil-reyes-diagnosed-with-torn-meniscus/c-301235744

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 29, 2018, 6:41 am

Quote from 3fingersplit on November 29, 2018, 1:52 am

Just saw this......changes the trade dynamic in my opinion

https://www.mlb.com/news/franmil-reyes-diagnosed-with-torn-meniscus/c-301235744

Sigh... definitely doesn't help.   Sigh of relief that it's not something worse, but different for a 5'9" 175 lb guy to recover from minor knee surgery than Franmil.  I always felt like Kyle Blanks' body broke down because his body type was just too big to be in the OF.  I hope I'm wrong, but it is hard to see him as a longtime starter in the OF.

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 29, 2018, 6:56 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 28, 2018, 2:57 pm

Somewhat in the same vein as the Atlanta scenario ... both Philadelphia (needing more offense and a ton of money to deploy), Houston (seeking a DH/1B), and Cleveland (needing an OF ... and a lot of money coming off the books next winter) could also take Myers $3MM in 2019 and the rest of his contract while giving little in return.

Padres in turn with a lower payroll going forward could take Segura / Leake and their contract for just decent prospects.

Prediction: Myers remains a Padre in LF and Renfroe is the one dealt for ????? ....... Segura does not come to SD.

???  I don't understand the "little in return" for Myers?   Despite his warts, he is a proven 25/25 guy who athletically projects above average in LF, who is in his prime under control for either 4/64 or 5/83 = 16 -16.6MM AAV.

Point of my whole post was that even considering heavy back load of his contract, 4-5 years of Myers IMO has much greater value on a blank slate than 4-5 years of Carmago; why Braves would have to give significantly more back.  Segura much more "=" trade.

It is true that after this low salary year, Myers trade value will drop because his AAV will rise so much, but I still wouldn't "sell low" on him.... not like Pads are up against it with only his & Hosmer's contracts into future, can always subsidize to get better return, etc.

Cleveland is a natural trade partner with SP's to offer and OF need.  Myers as centerpiece?  But Pads would have to give much more...

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 29, 2018, 7:05 am

Quote from WindsorUK on November 28, 2018, 4:18 pm

I'm inclined to go after Kluber above all else.

I have no idea what Cleveland is asking in return but Corey seems a much better fit over the 3 years than Thor.

Plus, if you can move Myers for Leake and Segurra, you're pretty much set for 2019.

I'm not disagreeing, but curious why you think this?

Problem with Cleveland is: 1) Need an OF, 2) just traded Mejia to us, so don't need a C.  This is why I'm so big on Thor; Pads can offer a better quality C than any other team, which Mets want/need.

Hard to see getting Segura, Leake, and Kluber without trading 2 of 3 of Myers, Renfroe, Reyes (plus a lot more)

Quote from fenn68 on November 29, 2018, 8:02 am

I have really cooled on the idea of trading for an elite SP (THIS WINTER) if it means giving up offense (returning or prospects coming in 2019).

Consider last season the Mets had the 3rd best SP based on WAR but were 18th in wRC+ .... ended up with a 77-85 record. Padres had the 29th rated SP (much worse than the Mets) and the 27th rated wRC+ (much much worse than the Mets) ... ending with a 66-96 record.

Adding Syndergaard or Kluber (3 year control) given the current offense will NOT make the team a winner in those three years especially if the price is giving the better offensive pieces to get them (and why would they be traded unless for offense). Neither would come cheaply.

Padres need to add offense first given their 2018 offense out of the returning pieces ... plus at this point they don't even have a ML 2B - SS - 3B with any ML track record.

Padres have to bet on the Tatis - Urias - Mejia succeeding in the ML to bolster the offensive profile (can't afford to trade them for pitching) ... not much other offensive help coming in 2019 (or even 2020). Add that the compelling trade value of any of the returning players is minimal. The complement to that is that the Padres have a large group of SP where some need to succeed and maybe some can be useful as trade material for more offense.

So, to get offense, Padres should dangle Yates (2 years control and everyone wants RP/closer), Hedges (gamble on Mejia with Allen on the come plus a lot of demand for catchers), a corner OF (realistically none that great to yield a mega return), and use prospect SP to fill out deals. Leaning to keeping Myers on the upside play (unless it is for Segura).

First target should be a 3B or SS (with Tatis going to 3B) with at least 4 years control ("overpay" if necessary) ... sets up 4 years of Mejia - Hosmer - Urias - Tatis - player added for 3B allowing the Padres to focus on the OF and SP over the next couple of years. Buys some time to see if any of the OF they keep can actually develop into legit ML players for a contender while the find out if Reed / Oliveras are potential replacements.

 

Quote from Booster SD on November 29, 2018, 8:12 am

What if we look to STL to trade contracts. What about a Myers/mid level prospect for Dexter Fowler. He could play CF for us until either Reed or Gettys are ready. Then, you could package Margot, Hedges, and the other necessary pieces for Syndergaard (Except for Tatis, Gore, etc). Take the money savings and sign Eovaldi. And if you are already mentally OK with Tatis to 3B, which doesnt bother me, then resign Galvis for 3 years and resolve to have Tatis go to 3B, like his dad played anyway.

1. Fowler/Jank - CF

2. Urias - 2B

3. Hosmer - 1B

4. Reyes/Cordero - RF

5. Renfroe - LF

6. Mejia/Ellis - C

7. 3B holdover until Tatis - 3B

8. Galvis - SS

 

1. Syndergaard

2. Luchessi

3. Eovaldi

4. Laur

5. From the vast options available left over from Mets trade.

Luchessi goes to to stay with the R-L-R-L changing eye spot/timing of the batter.

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 29, 2018, 10:37 am

I think everyone is on board with not wanting to trade offense  for pitching.

That being said if we do it needs to be something that doesn't hurt us going forward.

Meaning....if we trade an outfielder it needs to be the "right" one,let's not trade away a future All Star and keep a guy

who ends up a 4th outfielder(crapshoot?)

Also....we have guys like Naylor and Austin Allen who don't really have a position or even Mejia/Hedges.

I'd be OK trading any "one" of those three and keeping the other two.

And of course.....other pitching prospects or major league relievers.

For Thor I'd love to give up a package like Hedges "or" Mejia/Yates "or" Stammen,Gore + Quantrill + lower level prospect.

Wouldn't that be about right?

Quote from fenn68 on November 29, 2018, 10:41 am

A roll the dice move:

The Dodgers and Padres are among the teams pursuing free agent righty Garrett Richards, with Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter) reporting that both have made offers. The Los Angeles organization, in particular, is said to be “making a push” to keep the long-time Halos hurler in the region.

Richards (30) had TJ surgery last July so likely will not pitch much (if at all) in 2019 ... but in recent years it is not unheard-of to sign a pitcher on a multi-year deal with year one just being rehab (60 day DL) to get the potential of an elite performer in year 2 ... especially if you have confidence in rebounds from TJ. Price????

In 2020 the add of Garrett Richards would be simple since all they would have to do is add a "s" to the back of Clayton Richard's uniform since he will be gone via FA. Always thinking of ways to save money.

Quote from fenn68 on November 29, 2018, 10:56 am

The players I see as the better trade chips (meaning other teams would actually want them and the Padres could cover their departure in some fashion in 2019-20.

1. Hedges (26) ... 4 years control .... $1.8MM (est.) ... catchers are in demand and Hedges is controlled / low cost and plus defensively / average offensively for a catcher. Mejia moves to the starters role with Allen poised to back-up in 2020.

2. Yates (32) ... 2 years control ... $3.0MM (est.) ... RP/Closers are in demand and will be signed as FA for large dollars ... Yates' 2 years at reasonable dollars is worth pursuing for an effective RP (2.14 ERA / 0.92 WHIP)

3. Renfroe (27) ... 5 years control ... league minimum .... power bat, cheap, long control would work well in the right ball parks ... his 248/302/504 2018 is not that different from Myers but does not have the contract attached but the concern maybe be small sample size. Best trade chip out of the corner OF glut.

4. Stammen (35) ... 1 year control ... $2.25MM .... again RP in demand but trade value may be highest as a second piece in a bigger deal .... effective in 2018 with a 2,73 ERA / 1.04 WHIP.

Mix and match those with a few pitching prospect (not in the Top 10) and the returns may be useful going forward.